SMU vs. Penn State Parlay Picks & Predictions: CFP Round 1 SGP Odds
After SMU snuck into the College Football Playoff field with the final at-large bid, we’re not trusting the Mustangs to have a particularly lengthy stay in the postseason.
Our SMU vs. Penn State parlay picks for the first round of the College Football Playoff envision a productive game for the Nittany Lions offensively against a vulnerable SMU secondary.
Penn State (-8.5 at the best college football betting sites) hosts SMU at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa., Saturday at noon ET (TNT, Max).
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SMU vs. Penn State parlay predictions: College Football Playoff
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites.
- Over 53 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Penn State -8.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Drew Allar 226+ passing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +465 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 17.70%
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SGP predictions for SMU vs. Penn State
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Over 53 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Penn State has scored fewer than 26 points only twice this season. Both instances came against opposing offenses that shorten games and rank outside the top 110 in plays per game offensively (Ohio State and Illinois).
- SMU ranks 19th nationally in offensive pace (23.8 seconds per play)
- The Nittany Lions and Mustangs have combined to average 70.4 points per game this season
- Against opposing offenses ranked among the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency, SMU has allowed 34.3 points per game this season
This number sits between 53 and 53.5 across our best sportsbooks, with extra value on the Over when betting at DraftKings and Caesars.
Penn State -8.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Penn State has the advantage defensively against an SMU offense that relies on the passing game to pace its attack.
- Penn State boasts the 12th-ranked pass defense in the country, allowing just 178.5 passing yards per game
- That number gets more impressive in home games, where the Nittany Lions rank sixth in the nation, allowing only 149.6 passing yards per game
- Penn State won all but two home games by 14+ points this season
This line sits at Penn State -8.5 with varying odds across each of our best sports betting apps.
Allar 226+ passing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the default mode of operation for Penn State offensively tends to come on the ground, the Nittany Lions should siphon their approach toward the air given the tendencies of the SMU defense.
- The Mustangs rank seventh in the country in run defense, allowing 98.3 rushing yards per game — they’re even better on the ground in road games (third in FBS)
- The Mustangs have allowed 241.8 passing yards per game, ranking 95th in FBS in the category
- Allar has reached this passing line in six of his last 11 games
While DraftKings lists a slightly higher number on Allar’s passing prop, it is the only sportsbook to get the total at 53 (instead of 53.5) and the spread at Penn State -8.5 (instead of -9/9.5).
A winning $10 wager on this parlay at DraftKings would profit $46.50 as part of our SMU vs. Penn State predictions.
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SMU vs. Penn State live odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
College Football Playoff game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- How to watch: TNT, Max
- Weather: 26 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph NW
- Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-8.5 via DraftKings)
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