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Tennessee vs. South Carolina Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Volunteers Hungry for Style Points

Henry John

Last Updated: November 17, 2022 9:47 AM EST • 3 min 26 sec read.

The fifth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers will hit the road this weekend for a primetime showdown against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Follow along for our Tennessee-South Carolina picks.

After suffering its first loss of the season to Georgia two weeks ago, Tennessee (8-2 against the spread, 6-4 Over/Under) put forth a resounding response last week. Not only did the Volunteers get back in the win column against Missouri, but they had no qualms about running up the score in doing so. 

Meanwhile, South Carolina (5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U) failed to get going offensively last week in a 32-point road loss to Florida. Since achieving a Top 25 ranking, the Gamecocks have lost two of three games with their only win coming over Vanderbilt.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 12 matchup between Tennessee and South Carolina (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Weather: 47 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 3-5 mph winds SW

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Odds

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Odds Analysis

Opening odds priced Tennessee as a 21-point road favorite for Saturday’s contest. The entire college football betting market has since moved the spread north of three touchdowns. Depending on the sportsbook, bettors can currently find the Vols laying 21.5 or 22 points.

Despite the large size of this spread, the vast majority of bettors have been willing to lay the points with Tennessee. At DraftKings Sportsbook, more than 80% of all ATS bets are on the Volunteers. Tennessee has also taken nearly 90% of the money thus far.

While the point spread has increased slightly, the opposite is true of the game total. After opening up at 67.5, the consensus O/U now sits at 66. 

At DraftKings, 80% of all bets are on the Over. However, it’s worth noting that the 20% of tickets on the Under have notably accounted for nearly 40% of the handle.

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Picks

  • Side: Tennessee -21.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
  • Total: Under 66.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★
  • Prop: South Carolina Team Total - Under 22.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★

Tennessee vs. South Carolina ATS Pick

Tennessee -21.5 (-110) ★★★★

Given that Tennessee will not have the opportunity to boost its College Football Playoff resume via the SEC Championship Game, there is a lot of onus to finish the regular season in dominant fashion. The Volunteers displayed their commitment to gaining style points last week with backup quarterback Joe Milton leading a late touchdown drive against Missouri.

As far as Saturday’s matchup against South Carolina, it’s tough not to give the edge to Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s explosive offense. The Vols are ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency and have now surpassed the 50-point threshold in half of their games this season.

Meanwhile, Carolina comes in ranked just 67th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks have struggled against much lesser offensive opponents than what they will face on Saturday. Heck, even Vanderbilt was able to move the ball at will against Carolina’s defense two weeks ago. Turnovers were perhaps the only thing that saved the Gamecocks in that game.

Quarterback Spencer Rattler is playing timidly in an effort to avoid making mistakes and the result is an offense devoid of big-play upside.

Tennessee vs. South Carolina O/U Pick

Under 66.5 (-110) ★★

With the expectation being that Tennessee will score its fair share of points in this game, the outcome of the betting total could very well come down to how productive South Carolina’s offense can be. Even if MarShawn Lloyd and fellow running back Christian Beal-Smith are able to return from their respective injury absences, the Gamecocks could still be facing an uphill battle.

For as suspect as the Volunteers’ defense has looked at times against quality competition, they still rank 30th nationally in adjusted efficiency. The strength of the unit is clearly its ability to stop the run. To date, Tennessee has allowed only 107.8 rushing yards per game to FBS opponents, good for 13th in the country.

It’s also difficult to believe that Rattler and a sub-par Carolina receiving corps can exploit the Vols’ defensive weaknesses in the secondary. The Gamecocks have averaged less than 230 passing yards per game this season. Aside from a Week 2 matchup against Arkansas, Rattler has not thrown for 200 yards against any SEC opponent this season.

Given how uncertain the outlook is for South Carolina offensively, betting the Under is the most sensical play. It could take a whole lot of style points from Tennessee to push the game total past 66.5. 

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Prop Pick

South Carolina Team Total: Under 22.5 (-115) ★★★

Based on what we’ve seen out of Rattler and the Gamecocks’ offense recently, it’s hard to believe that they will score many points against one of the top teams in the nation.

While Tennessee’s defense is a far cry from Georgia’s, Carolina lacks the passing attack needed to exploit the Volunteers’ secondary. As such, the Gamecocks shouldn’t be counted on to score much more than the seven points they achieved against the Bulldogs.

The fact that DraftKings is listing Carolina’s team total prop a full point higher than other sportsbooks only reinforces the decision to bet the Under.

Where to Bet on Tennessee vs. South Carolina

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Tennessee-South Carolina picks made 11/17/2022 at 2:18 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.