UCF vs. Tulane Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: New Year’s Six Bowl Aspirations on the Line
Dating back to 2005, the home team is 8-2 straight up in meetings between the Knights and Green Wave. Let's examine the matchup in our UCF-Tulane picks.
Two of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference are set to collide on Saturday as the UCF Knights take on the Tulane Green Wave.
UCF (6-3 against the spread, 3-6 Over/Umder) comes into this matchup after winning two straight and six of the squad's last seven. The Knights positioned themselves beautifully to make the AAC Championship Game with their win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. A victory on Saturday would all but lock UCF into the title game.
Meanwhile, Tulane (8-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U) enters Saturday alone atop the American Conference standings. The Green Wave have yet to lose a league game, and they're riding a five-contest winning streak into what will undoubtedly be their toughest test to date. In the span of one year, Tulane has gone from winning just two games to being in contention for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 11 matchup between UCF and Tulane (Odds via SuperBook and DraftKings Sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out our college football Week 11 roundup, games to watch, and best against-the-spread picks.
UCF vs. Tulane Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
Weather: 63 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 12-15 mph north winds
UCF vs. Tulane Odds
UCF vs. Tulane Odds Analysis
Opening odds made this AAC showdown a pick’em. The market then adjusted to make Tulane the favorite by between 1 and 2.5 at home in relatively short order. The majority of sportsbooks are now listing the spread as Green Wave -1.5.
As for the game total, the line has been steadily increasing after opening at 51.5. It now sits at 54.5. Select sportsbooks have crept higher still to 55.
Despite the tossup nature of this game, many public bettors are siding with Tulane. The latest betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook reveal that 75% of all ATS wagers are on the Green Wave. In addition, Tulane is attracting 83% of the money wagered on the moneyline.
For the total, the disparity in ticket count is much greater than the money distribution. While the Under has only taken 25% of all bets at DraftKings, those tickets are responsible for nearly 50% of the handle.
UCF vs. Tulane Picks
UCF vs. Tulane ATS Pick
Tulane -1 (-110) ★★
With 18 returning starters providing plenty of experience on both sides of the ball, several college football betting analysts believed Tulane was destined for a major turnaround in 2022. Whether anyone projected the Green Wave going from two wins to being ranked No. 16 in the country is a different story.
Defensively, Tulane is one of the best Group of 5 teams. The Green Wave rank 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency after already proving they're capable of shutting down dual-threat quarterbacks. Tulane did a tremendous job of limiting Wildcats QB Adrian Martinez during an upset win over Kansas State in September.
How does that translate to Saturday’s matchup? Well, one can make a real argument that UCF signal-caller John Rhys Plumlee will be the best player on the field. However, the Knights’ offense has struggled during previous matchups against quality defensive opponents like Louisville, East Carolina, and Cincinnati.
In addition, the Green Wave do a terrific job of not beating themselves. Boasting so much experience on the roster is undoubtedly a big reason why. Tulane comes in with an average of only 3.9 committed penalties per game, the fourth-fewest in all of college football. In a likely tight game, free yardage gained or lost on penalties could prove critical.
It may also be wise for bettors to play the moneyline instead of the spread, depending on how the sportsbooks are pricing this matchup.
UCF vs. Tulane O/U Pick
Under 54.5 (-110) ★★
Given that the Tulane defense projects as the best overall unit in this matchup, it’s hard not to lean toward a lower-scoring game. The Green Wave will be more than happy to grind out a defensive-minded victory. In fact, trying to engage in a shootout with UCF could be disastrous.
Although the Green Wave have scored 24-plus points in all but one game during the 2022 season, they have yet to encounter many quality defensive opponents. UCF may not be as strong defensively as Tulane, but the Knights still rank a respectable 44th in adjusted efficiency.
When matched up against top-tier opponents in 2022, both UCF and Tulane have tended to engage in lower-scoring affairs. That only furthers the belief that the two sides will fall short of expectations on the scoreboard Saturday.
The Knights’ games against Power 5 opposition in Louisville and Georgia Tech and conference cohorts East Carolina and Cincinnati all fell short of 50 combined points. Meanwhile, none of the Green Wave’s prior matchups against teams with a winning record have surpassed 51 points.
UCF vs. Tulane Prop Pick
Tulane team total: Under 27.5 (-125) ★★★
Tulane has surpassed this team total in four of its nine games in 2022. However, each of those outings came against vastly inferior competition and/or awful defenses. Scoring 40-plus points against the likes of UMass and South Florida doesn’t mean much.
The Green Wave feature a run-oriented offense. Sophomore Tyjae Spears leads the way for a unit that ranks 37th in the FBS while averaging 182.9 rushing yards per game. Against a formidable defensive opponent like UCF, Tulane will surely look to stick with what has earned the school a No. 16 ranking.
Where to Bet on UCF-Tulane Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
UCF-Tulane picks made 11/11/2022 at 2:06 p.m. ET
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