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UNLV vs. Boise State Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: Can Rebels Contain Jeanty?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 6, 2024 11:27 AM EST • 3 min 33 sec read.

Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty stands on the field before the start of the game against the San Jose State Spartans, and we offer our top UNLV vs. Boise State player prop picks for the Mountain West Championship.
Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty stands on the field before the start of the game against the San Jose State Spartans. Photo by Cary Edmondson via Imagn Images.

With Boise State on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff, is Ashton Jeanty suddenly a player to fade given his quiet performance against UNLV earlier in the year?

Well, our UNLV vs. Boise State player prop picks certainly see the value of Jeanty as a touchdown threat, but we're questioning whether the yardage is destined to pile up to his usual standard against a staunch Rebels run defense.

Boise State (-3.5) hosts UNLV in the Mountain West Championship at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho on Friday at 8 p.m. ET (FOX). We have you fully covered for this game with our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction, as part of our college football championship week predictions.

UNLV vs. Boise State college football player prop picks: Friday

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

UNLV vs. Boise State touchdown prediction

Ashton Jeanty 2+ touchdowns (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We're backing Jeanty to score the game's first TD with our college football championship week best bets, but there's also value on him to find the endzone multiple times. After all, his Boise State team is favored in a game featuring a 57.5-point total.

  • Jeanty has scored multiple touchdowns in eight of 12 games this season
  • Boise State’s team total sits at 31.5
  • Jeanty is responsible for 45.9% of the Broncos’ offensive touchdowns on the year

With the odds at -125, DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which we would recommend playing this prop. The value is simply too depleted at FanDuel (-170) and Caesars (-200).

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%

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Best UNLV vs. Boise State prop picks

Ashton Jeanty Under 175.5 rushing yards (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Against a UNLV run defense ranked 14th in FBS and allowing 104.4 rushing yards per game, the "Jeanty Tax" feels real for this line as the public tends to disproportionately target Over bets for exciting star players.

  • Jeanty has cleared a 175.5-yard rushing line seven times on the season but only twice over his last six games
  • In October, the Rebels held Jeanty to one of his lowest rushing outputs of the season
  • Despite logging 33 carries vs. UNLV, he racked up only 128 yards on a season-low 3.9 YPC

Caesars has the best number for Under bettors, listing Jeanty’s line at 175.5 yards. Under bettors should avoid FanDuel (170.5 yards) and BetMGM (inflated -125 odds on Under 173.5 yards) for this prop.

Best odds: -120 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Hajj-Malik Williams Over 60.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since taking over as the starting quarterback for UNLV, Hajj-Malik Williams has been a dual-threat menace to opposing defenses. Though Boise State is generally stingy against the run, Williams cracked the code the last time he faced the Broncos.

  • In the previous meeting with Boise State, Williams paced the Rebels' offense with 105 rushing yards on 19 carries
  • Williams has cleared 60.5 yards in seven of his 10 games this season

BetMGM and Caesars list Williams’ rushing total at 61.5 yards and 64.5 yards, respectively, making the value of this prop most optimal at FanDuel (60.5 yards).

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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UNLV vs. Boise State game info

  • When: Friday, Dec. 6
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 32 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, winds 4 mph W
  • Favorite: Boise State -3.5 (-122 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.