UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction & Picks Tonight: Mountain West Championship
After losing to Boise State in the regular season, UNLV is hoping to spoil the Broncos' College Football Playoff hopes in the Mountain West Championship.
- Our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction expects the Broncos to live up to their season-long billing as the G5 College Football Playoff odds favorite
- While Travis Hunter remains the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, this is Ashton Jeanty's last chance to close the gap
- We dive deeper on Jeanty in our UNLV vs. Boise State player prop picks
In one of the biggest games of our college football championship week predictions, Boise State's playoff hopes depend on a win.
UNLV vs. Boise State betting splits: Mountain West Championship
The Broncos opened as 4.5-point favorites across most of our best sportsbooks, and the line has seen minimal movement throughout the week.
Boise State is still a 4.5-point favorite ahead of kickoff tonight. Bettors are all over the Broncos with 68% of the money on them and just 32% on the Rebels.
The total has steadily dipped from as high as 59.5 down to 57.5. However, 61% of the money is on the Over.
UNLV vs. Boise State prediction & best pick
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Boise State -4 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. UNLV ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Ashton Jeanty Under 177.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV vs. Boise State ATS prediction: Mountain West Championship
Boise State to cover the spread: -4 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Broncos’ defense secures Mountain West title
With all the hype around Jeanty’s unbelievable season, the Broncos’ defense has been lost in the mix. They’re allowing just 24 points per game, and over their last three games, they’re allowing just 17.3.
The Rebels are averaging 35.6 points per game, but the Broncos held them mostly in check for the majority of the first meeting between these two teams.
Yes, the Rebels ended up with 367 yards, but the Broncos’ offense kept them off the field, possessing the ball for 33:58. The Broncos also average 1.3 takeaways per game, and they forced one Rebels turnover in the first meeting. If they get another in this game, the Rebels won’t be able to overcome the time-of-possession battle.
Bottling up Jeanty is not enough
In the first game between these two teams, the Rebels held Jeanty to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry. This wasn’t a fluke. The Rebels have the 14th-best run defense in the nation, allowing just 104.4 yards per game and 3.3 yards per attempt.
However, Broncos’ quarterback Maddux Madsen has been quietly very efficient this season, throwing for 2,556 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. The Broncos have yet to score fewer than 34 points in a home game this season, and the Rebels are just 1-2 in games where they’ve allowed at least 29 points.
UNLV vs. Boise State best pick
Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Ashton Jeanty Under 177.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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As I already said, what the Rebels did to Jeanty in their first meeting was not a fluke. The Rebels have one of the best run defenses in football, and they’re one of only three teams to hold Jeanty to fewer than 150 yards this season. They’re the only team to hold him below 4.8 yards per carry, and they could do the same on Friday.
Even if Jeanty, who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, has a better performance, I don’t expect him to run for 50 more yards than he did in the first meeting. For as incredible as Jeanty has been, five opponents have held him below this number, and none of them rank better than the Rebels.
All that said, take the highest number you can find at our best sports betting sites. The total ranges from 171.5 to 177.5, and with bet365 offering a price nearly identical to FanDuel - which has this number set six yards lower - it’s the place to wager.
We're also backing Jeanty's rushing yards Under with our UNLV vs. Boise State player prop picks.
Despite being down on his rushing yards prop, we mentioned in our college football championship week best bets that Jeanty is a solid bet to find the endzone first in this game.
UNLV vs. Boise State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
UNLV vs. Boise State live odds
UNLV vs. Boise State opening odds:
- UNLV: +4.5 (-105)
- Boise State: -4.5 (-105)
UNLV vs. Boise State game info
- When: Friday, Dec. 6
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 42 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph W
- Favorite: Boise State -4 (-110 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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