College Football Upset Picks, Predictions: 3 Teams on Disaster Watch for Week 6

Seventh-ranked Oklahoma State is riding high after avenging last year’s Big 12 title game loss to Baylor. However, the Pokes’ defense is set to encounter its toughest test this season when Texas Tech visits Stillwater. We look at this matchup and more for our college football upset picks.

With conference play now in full swing, it can become even tougher to successfully pick college football upsets. It is generally easier to compare teams that play within the same league and many conference foes match up on an annual basis. 

While there may be more data for oddsmakers to go off of when setting odds for conference games, bettors also have more to lean on when handicapping these lines. Poor personnel matchups, tricky scheduling spots, injuries, and even inner turmoil within a team locker room can result in highly-regarded favorites being put on disaster watch. 

Here are our top college football upset picks for Week 6 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

College Football Upset Picks for Week 6

Week 6 College Football Upset Predictions

Texas Tech (+280)

The idea that the Big 12 would be one of the most unpredictable conferences in college football this season is certainly coming to fruition. Texas Tech aided that notion two weeks ago with an overtime victory over Texas as a touchdown underdog.

Joey McGuire may be a first-time head coach, but he has largely pulled the right strings at Texas Tech thus far. The decision to name sophomore Donovan Smith as the team’s starting quarterback has undoubtedly been beneficial for the offense. The Red Raiders have scored at least 28 points in all but one game so far this season. 

Last week saw the Red Raiders go to the fourth quarter deadlocked with Kansas State. Tech actually outgained the Wildcats for the game, but a minus-3 turnover margin proved costly. Smith’s ability to take care of the football could be the difference between winning and losing in Stillwater this weekend.

Oklahoma State sprung an upset of its own last week by defeating Baylor on the road. Prior to that win, the Cowboys had yet to really face a formidable opponent. With so many departures from last year’s terrific defense, the Pokes could very well struggle to contain the Red Raiders’ dual-threat attack. 

It’s worth noting that the line has moved in Texas Tech’s favor despite 75% of all ATS bets siding with OSU. This game also profiles as a bit of a look-ahead spot for the Pokes with a road trip to TCU looming next week.

Southern Mississippi (+215)

Two weeks ago, Southern Mississippi was featured in this column as a 4-1 shot on the moneyline against Tulane. Despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards, the Golden Eagles prevailed on the road. After a bye last week, Southern Miss will play its first Sun Belt Conference game of the season this Saturday against Troy.

Considering what the Trojans have already accomplished this season along with the fact that they will have home field, it’s no surprise to find them priced as solid favorites. The last two weeks saw Troy pick up wins over Marshall and Western Kentucky. The Trojans also nearly knocked off Appalachian State until a Hail Mary attempt on the final play went against them.

With 18 starters returning, Troy will presumably be a factor in the Sun Belt all season long. However, Southern Mississippi also returned 16 starters this year. Second-year coach Will Hall has elected to proceed with true freshman Zach Wilcke as his starting quarterback after Ty Keyes was injured in the opener. So far, Wilcke has shown great command of the offense.

With an opening spread of Troy -8 now sitting under a touchdown across the market, it’s clear that USM is getting some sharp support in this spot. If the Golden Eagles’ defense can continue its strong play from the first month of the season, another road upset is certainly possible.

Fresno State (+250)

Coming into the season, many college football betting analysts were penciling Fresno State and Boise State into the Mountain West Conference title game. Fast-forward to Week 6 and the outlook for both teams has changed drastically, specifically at quarterback.

Senior QB Jake Haener was a big reason why many were high on Fresno State in the MWC this season. Unfortunately, he sustained an ankle injury three weeks ago in a loss to USC. Haener missed the Bulldogs’ game against UConn this past Saturday, but his teammates may have missed him more. 

Fresno was laying 24 points on the road but lost outright in a massive upset. Making his first collegiate start, backup quarterback Logan Fife threw for only 157 yards and two interceptions against one of the worst teams in the country. Haener has already been ruled out for this week's game.

On the bright side for Fresno State, this week’s opponent has had to endure some inner turmoil of its own recently. Following a disappointing road loss to UTEP, Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier elected to enter the transfer portal. As such, Boise State also doesn’t exactly have a reliable passing attack coming into this matchup.

The Broncos were able to get past San Diego State last week thanks to a massive output on the ground. It’s highly unlikely that they will achieve a similar performance against a more talented Fresno State defense.

Where to Bet on College Football Upset Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

College football upset picks made 10/4/2022 at 5:52 p.m. ET