USC vs. UCLA Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Is Another Shootout in Store?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 18, 2022 9:11 AM EST • 2 min 32 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

One of college football's greatest rivalries among West Coast teams renews on Saturday, as the UCLA Bruins host the USC Trojans. Check out our USC-UCLA college football picks.

UCLA (8-2, 5-2) will need to shrug off last week's disappointing 34-28 home loss to Arizona as a 20-point favorite to have any chance of a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance. The Bruins are looking for a conference-leading seventh home win this week, while the Trojans (9-1, 7-1) have won three straight following a 1-point loss to Utah.

These two teams have split their last 10 head-to-head meetings (though USC is 5-2 in the previous seven), with the road team winning each of the previous two. UCLA's 29-point victory in the Coliseum last year was historic, as the Bruins' 62 points were their most in series history.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 12 game between USC and UCLA (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.

USC vs. UCLA Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Weather: 73 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph NE wind

USC vs. UCLA Odds

USC vs. UCLA Odds Analysis

The consensus spread has held firm with USC favored by 2 points on the road. However, bettors are split. The Trojans are backed by 51% of the tickets but those account for just 16% of the handle.

The Over/Under has soared from the consensus opening line of 73 to 77.5 as of Friday afternoon. The Over has the support of 67% of the tickets and 98% of the handle.

USC vs. UCLA Picks

USC vs. UCLA ATS Pick

UCLA +2.5 (-110) ★★★★

While UCLA's loss to Arizona (its first home loss since Oct. 23 of last year) was disappointing, the Bruins still have everything to play for in this matchup and can get right back in the Pac-12 race.

USC has won three straight games, but mostly in uninspiring fashion, as it won two one-possession games over inferior Arizona and California teams in that span. The Trojans are no stranger to close calls, as their average margin of victory in conference games was just over 10 points before last week's drubbing of Colorado.

The Trojans suffered a huge loss last week when running back Travis Dye, the conference's third-leading rusher with 884 yards and 6.1 yards per carry, was ruled out for the rest of the season with a lower leg injury. Quarterback Caleb Williams was a big beneficiary of Dye's explosive running, as his 32 touchdowns to only two interceptions are largely a product of Dye commanding much of the defense's attention. Without Dye in the backfield, USC's ceiling is lowered.

USC vs. UCLA O/U Pick

Over 74.5 (-110) ★★★★

The Over has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these teams, and we expect another shootout. USC's defense has been highly inconsistent all season, and it entered last week ranked 123rd in rushing success rate and allows 4.5 yards per carry. That spells doom against UCLA's Zach Charbonnet, whose 1,145 rushing yards and 7.5 yards per carry lead the conference.

On the other side, UCLA has recorded 25 sacks this season. Still, Williams entered last week as the second-best passer against pressure, per PFF, and is more than capable of putting the offense on his back under Lincoln Riley's well-coached offensive system.

The Trojans have scored 40 or more points in eight of their nine games and are not about to be completely shut down because of Dye's injury.

USC vs. UCLA Prop Pick

UCLA first-half moneyline (-105) ★★

In UCLA's two losses this year, it has trailed at the half by a combined 25 points, so look for Chip Kelly to emphasize a fast start this week. The Bruins entered last week with the nation's best offensive-line-yards rate and fourth-best run-blocking grade, per PFF.

In addition, the Bruins' offense entered with the third-best offensive success rate. They will take advantage early of USC's 47th-ranked defense (per SP+), the second-worst defense in that metric of the top 14 teams.

Where to Bet on USC vs. UCLA Picks

USC-UCLA picks made 11/16/2022 at 5:58 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”