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USC vs. Michigan Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 17, 2024 8:10 AM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji passes second half as we look at our USC vs. Michigan early lean, picks & odds.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji passes second half. Photo by: Rick Osentoski/Imagn Images.

For the second time this season, the defending champion Michigan Wolverines are home underdogs. This time, they host the USC Trojans in their first game as a member of the Big Ten.

It’s a matchup more commonly seen at the Rose Bowl, but our USC vs. Michigan early picks look at whether the Wolverines deserve to be six-point underdogs in a building where they had won 23 straight games before their 31-12 loss to Texas in Week 2.

The Wolverines are making a change at quarterback for this game from Davis Warren to Alex Orji after Warren threw two touchdown passes and six interceptions through the first three games.

However, Orji will have his hands full as he leads the team against a Trojans squad that had the benefit of a bye week last week.

My early USC vs. Michigan prediction

College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Michigan +6

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Bettors are heavily influenced by what they saw a week prior, and I expect to be on the contrarian side backing the Wolverines’ point spread. Michigan turned in an uninspiring 28-18 win over Arkansas State last week, while USC benefitted from a bye.

However, USC has covered just two of its last eight games since 2020 following a bye, and bettors should not be swayed by Texas’s 19-point win at the Big House. The Longhorns are arguably the deepest team in the country and the one most likely to win the national title.

Though Michigan’s 10-point win over Arkansas State does not look impressive on paper, it did run for 301 yards, marking the third time it has eclipsed the 300-yard rushing mark in the last three seasons.

Another one of those games was last year’s national championship game against former Pac-12 member Washington, and I expect Michigan’s physicality will go a long way in allowing it to be competitive. I also do not put too much stock into Michigan having a rest disadvantage, as it has covered each of its last three games in that spot dating back to 2022.

This line did not budge much after the news of Michigan switching quarterbacks, and Caesars moved its line in the Wolverines’ favor from +6 to +5.5, leaving BetMGM as the only one of our top sports betting sites offering a line of +6.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

USC vs. Michigan live odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 4 game.

Moneyline

Michigan’s longest odds (+200 at BetMGM) still give it a one-in-three chance to pull the home upset, while its implied probability to win outright is as high as 36.23% based on FanDuel’s +176 odds. 

Spread

Thus far, the early betting splits are 4/1 in favor of USC at our best sports betting sites, as there are not many believers in the Wolverines after they trailed the Longhorns by 25 points with less than two minutes to play two weeks ago.

Unless sharps are making up a majority of the 20% that are backing Michigan at this point, there is a good chance this line could creep up to a touchdown before kickoff, which is also where it landed for the Texas game.

Over/Under

Our best sports betting apps are in unison with the 46.5-point total with standard -110 juice on both the Over and Under. How the sportsbooks got to 46.5 is interesting since BetMGM and Caesars came up from an opening number of 45.5, while DraftKings and FanDuel are down from opening numbers of 47 and 47.5, respectively.

The fact that all shops found a middle ground at 46.5 and that there is a near 50/50 split (52/48 in favor of the Over) suggests the total is not likely to move much. 

How to watch USC vs. Michigan

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 21
  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph E
  • Favorite: USC (-250 via BetMGM)

College football odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”