UTEP vs. Sam Houston Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9: Can Bearkats Earn First Win?
The Sam Houston Bearkats are still seeking their first victory as they host the UTEP Miners in Week 9, and we have our best UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction for this bottom-tier Conference USA matchup based on the best college football odds.
The UTEP Miners are 2-6 overall and 1-3 in CUSA play, and that one conference win is their only victory over an FBS opponent. Five of the Miners' six defeats came by a margin of at least 14 points, including a 28-7 loss to the New Mexico State Aggies in Week 8. UTEP's 186.8 rushing yards allowed per game is the third-worst number in CUSA.
The Sam Houston Bearkats have been competitive despite opening the year with seven straight losses. Three of Sam Houston's losses have been in one-possession games and it lost a thrilling double-overtime match against FIU, 33-27, in Week 8. The Bearkats are the only winless team in Conference USA.
Here is our best UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction and our college football picks as part of our college football predictions for Week 9 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction: Week 9
Sam Houston -3 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Have we ever seen a team winless after seven games favored in back-to-back contests? The Bearkats being favored this week speaks to how bad the Miners have been. Sam Houston is 3-3-1 against the spread this year, while UTEP is just 2-6 ATS.
The Miners are averaging 70 more yards per game than the Bearkats, but they have almost exclusively thrived in garbage time scenarios. They’ve been part of just one one-possession game, while the Bearkats constantly fall short in important scenarios late in games.
Seven or fewer points have decided three of the Bearkats' last four games. Two of those three games came against the top two teams in Conference USA. The Bearkats have been able to stay in games with their defense, as they're allowing just 25.9 points per game -- 62nd best nationally.
Offensively, both teams are in the bottom 10 in college football in scoring. But the Bearkats have averaged 21 points per game over their last four, while the Miners are averaging just 18. It just doesn’t make sense for a winless team to be favored by more than a field goal this late in the season, but all the same, considering how bad the Mines have been, we have to go with the favorite.
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UTEP vs. Sam Houston best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3 |
| -108 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
We love getting this number at -3 for -110 at bet365. If you tried creating an alternative line at our other best sports betting apps. it would cost you at least -115.
If you insist on getting the best price, then BetMGM is the place to play. Their price for -3.5 is -105. But we recommend taking the lowest spread you can, because after all, the Bearkats are 0-7, so this is far from a sure thing.
UTEP vs. Sam Houston odds
UTEP vs. Sam Houston odds analysis
The Bearkats opened as 1.5-point favorites over the Miners, but that number has grown as high as 3.5 at some of our best sports betting sites. With the Bearkats still winless, it’s hard to imagine that the public will support them enough to move this line any further in their favor. If you’re on the Bearkats, you can probably wait until closer to kickoff to try to get in at -2.5 for a solid price.
The total for this game opened at a very low 36.5. It now sits at 36 at most sites with the best sportsbook promos. The only sportsbook still holding on to 36.5 is FanDuel, and despite 67% of wagers back the over, oddsmakers are still dropping the number.
UTEP vs. Sam Houston game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 25 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 73 degrees, 10-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction made 10/23/2023 at 12:48 p.m. ET.
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