Western Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 1
No Nick Saban, no problem?
It's been a long time since the last time Saban wasn't coaching Alabama, but our Western Kentucky vs. Alabama predictions see no reason the Crimson Tide can’t keep rolling under Kalen DeBoer in Week 1.
After entering last season with no guarantees on his starting role - it was less than a calendar year ago that he was benched against USF - QB Jalen Milroe has the keys to the kingdom for the Crimson Tide, who enter the year among the favorites by the college football championship odds.
Are we about to see DeBoer’s passing offense unlock another gear for the Heisman Trophy odds candidate? It all begins Saturday at 7 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Best Western Kentucky vs. Alabama picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Game pick: Alabama -31.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Western Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Jalen Milroe Over 238.5 passing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky vs. Alabama prediction: Week 1
Alabama -31.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After nailing our first write-up of the season on Thursday’s SGP in the North Dakota State-Colorado matchup (at +565 odds!), we’re looking to back 'Bama in Kalen DeBoer’s introduction to the ravenous Crimson Tide fan base.
As the head coach at Washington, DeBoer had no problem running up the score against inferior opponents last season as his Huskies built their CFP resume. Washington rattled off three straight wins by 33+ points to begin the campaign - including against respectable competition like Boise State and Michigan State.
Will DeBoer pour it on vs. WKU?
Western Kentucky projects to be a step down from those squads that DeBoer's team trounced last year.
The Hilltoppers rank toward the bottom of FBS in ESPN’s season-opening Football Power Index. Meanwhile, Alabama returns a quarterback who elevated himself from an early-season quarterback battle to one of the top QBs in the country by the end of last season.
Based on DeBoer’s history, and a probable desire to make a good first impression in Tuscaloosa, we like the Tide as a four-star recommendation up to -33.5 and a three-star play up to -34.5.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Western Kentucky vs. Alabama player prop
Jalen Milroe Over 238.5 passing yards (-117) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although Milroe cleared this passing line only three times last season, we’re banking on his new head coach bringing his pass-heavy philosophy to Tuscaloosa.
DeBoer’s offense led by Michael Penix Jr. averaged 343.7 passing yards per game last season. Although Bama could probably use the ground game exclusively to churn out an easy win in Week 1, I expect Milroe to get opportunities to sling it more this season under DeBoer than he did under Saban.
The Hilltoppers ranked 69th in FBS in pass defense last season, allowing an average of 231.1 yards per game through the air. Even if he takes an early seat on the bench in a blowout, Milroe could rack up gaudy totals in the first half alone.
Shop around on Milroe's passing prop
FanDuel offers this prop at 240.5 yards with -114 odds to the Over. DraftKings is dealing an alt total of 241 at -115 odds, making it a slightly lesser value than FanDuel.
Instead, we're eyeing a lower total of 238.5 passing yards at Caesars, which is offering better value at that number despite the slightly worse odds of -117, which would pay out $8.55 in profit on a $10 wager.
We like the Milroe passing prop as a five-star play at present, and we’ll take the Over as a four-star play up to 249.5 yards.
Best odds: -117 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.92%
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Western Kentucky vs. Alabama odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Western Kentucky vs. Alabama game info
- When: Saturday, August 31
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 86 degrees, 6% precipitation, 4-mph winds
- Favorite: Alabama -31.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
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