Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 8
One program is named after a prominent figure in U.S. history. The other features a mascot that's friends with Grimace and is beloved because nobody knows what it is. This is college football.
- Our Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston prediction foresees the Hilltoppers channeling the spirit of Big Red and covering the spread as a 2.5-point underdog against Sam Houston
- Both the Hilltoppers and Bearkats are undefeated against Group of Five opponents this season.
- Western Kentucky and Sam Houston have earned spots among the leading teams in the C-USA, and each school is talented enough to knock off Liberty, a G5 College Football Playoff odds contender, in late November
This C-USA clash on Wednesday at 7 p.m. (ESPN2) is one of the most significant Group of Five contests of our Week 8 college football predictions.
Best Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Western Kentucky +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Sam Houston ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Kisean Johnson Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston against the spread prediction: Week 8
Western Kentucky to cover the spread: +2.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston opening odds:
- Western Kentucky: +2.5 (-110)
- Sam Houston: -2.5 (-110)
After opening the season with a 63-0 loss to Alabama, Western Kentucky has been one of the best teams in the Group of Five.
The Hilltoppers have outscored opponents 170-80 since then, including a near upset of Boston College and a five-point win over MAC Championship odds favorite Toledo.
That's even with starting QB TJ Finley being out with an injury. In his absence, Caden Veltkamp has managed 16 total touchdowns (most among C-USA QBs), with a 78.6% adjusted completion rate and five big-time throws, per PFF.
Along with Kisean Johnson, Elijah Young, and Easton Messer, the Hilltoppers should have no problem scoring points against a Bearkats defense that's 84th in SP+.
Bear down on the run
It's no secret that Sam Houston wants to run the football. The Bearkats average just 25 pass attempts per game vs. 47.7 rushing attempts, with starting QB Hunter Watson having more rush attempts (84) than completions (78) this season.
However, Sam Houston isn't that effective - ranking just 83rd in EPA per rush - and the Hilltoppers are built to stop the run. Western Kentucky is 59th in EPA per rush on defense and is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the C-USA (161.7).
With how the Hilltoppers have played recently, and with a favorable matchup, Western Kentucky should be able to cover for the sixth straight game. If they do, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston best bet
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Kisean Johnson Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky has a rich history of producing star C-USA receivers and Kisean Johnson is the next one.
Johnson is second in the conference in receiving yards (474) and has gone Over 71.5 yards in all four games against G5 opponents this season.
Sam Houston's starting cornerbacks - David Fisher and Jaylon Jimmerson - have combined to give up 285 receiving yards over the last two games, and Johnson is one of the best receivers they'll face this year.
If he crosses 71.5 receiving yards for the fifth time this season, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 16
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium (Huntsville, Texas)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph NE
- Favorite: Sam Houston -2.5 (-110 via bet365)
College football betting odds pages
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