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Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Broncos Control H2H Series

Philip Wood

Last Updated: November 2, 2022 6:07 AM EDT • 2 min 36 sec read.

Western Michigan won each of its last two meetings with Bowling Green. Who has the upper hand in 2022? Read on for our top Western Michigan-Bowling Green picks of college football's Week 10.

The Western Michigan Broncos and Bowling Green Falcons each enjoyed a bye week ahead of this head-to-head matchup. Each team was coming off a Week 8 victory as well.

The similarities continue, as Bowling Green comes into Week 10 sitting third in the MAC East Division with a 3-1 conference record. Western Michigan is third in the West Division but with a 2-2 conference record.

Here are our Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green college football picks for Week 10 (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 2, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio
Weather: 47 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Odds

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Odds Analysis

The spread has grown in favor of Bowling Green since the consensus line opened with the Falcons favored by 2.5 points. As of Wednesday morning, it sits at Bowling Green -4.5 with 74% of the tickets but just 42% of the handle backing the Falcons.

The Over/Under has stayed at the consensus opening line of 47.5. The Over has drawn 62% of the handle on 69% of the tickets.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Picks

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Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green ATS Pick

Bowling Green -4 (-115) ★★★

The Broncos have been hot against the Falcons, winning each of the last two rivalry matchups. However, the Falcons are the much better side this season. While Bowling Green is giving up 34.6 points per game, it has played UCLA, Mississippi State, Marshall, and Buffalo, and they played in a seven-overtime game earlier this season against Eastern Kentucky.

The Broncos are averaging a modest 20.8 points per game, but they should improve on their season average this week. The Falcons have given up fewer than 20 points just twice this season. However, even if they score more than usual, the Broncos are not going to be able to keep up with the Falcons’ offense, which has really taken advantage of weak defenses this season.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green O/U Pick

Over 46.5 (-110) ★★★★

This line simply does not make any sense. Both teams are allowing a touchdown more than they are scoring on average this season, which should provide ample opportunities for these still-capable offenses to score points. After all, Falcons’ quarterback Matt McDonald has thrown for 1,620 yards and 16 touchdowns, with just three interceptions this season.

Both teams were tied up in low-scoring affairs against Miami (Ohio), but the Redhawks are averaging 19.4 points per game while allowing just 21.4. Neither of these offenses is good enough to inflict their will against capable opponents, but they are good enough to take advantage of bad defense. 

The Over hit only twice in matchups between these two teams since 2003, but seven of the nine games saw lines set at 60.5 points or higher. This total is the lowest of any meeting between these two teams by far.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Prop Pick

First half Over 23 (-115) ★★★

The full-game total doesn’t make sense, and neither does the first-half line. Before the Broncos' most-recent game against the Redhawks, the first-half total cashed the Over on this number in three consecutive games. For the Falcons, if you also get rid of their game against the Redhawks, the first-half total cleared this mark in three of their last four games.

It seems that oddsmakers are taking the performances against Miami as more of a norm than an outlier. This seems like the wrong read to have on this game. When these two teams step on the field, the scoring starts right away, whether for them or their opponents. Take this up to 24.

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Western Michigan-Bowling Green picks made 11/01/2022 at 9:44 a.m. ET

Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.