Look to These Conferences When Searching for a College Football Long Shot Bet

For as magnificently unpredictable and weird as college football can be, it's often the biggest brands in the sport that play in the most meaningful games. Just look at the college football championship odds, and it's all of the usual suspects expected to be competing for the title this year.

Even with the expanded 12-team playoff, the College Football Playoff odds are dominated by the same teams who were always competing to make the four-team playoff.

It makes finding long shots to bet on difficult in a sport that's only had 11 different teams win the title over the last 22 years. That's especially true when betting on conference champions with the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC generally being won by the same two or three teams.

However, there are a few conferences that have shown over the last decade that they're open to teams that aren't among the three preseason favorites. That means programs with odds that are +600 or longer are fully capable of a surprise run.

So which college football conferences are the best for betting long shots, and which program is the best candidate from each this season?

Big 12

Maybe there should be an asterisk beside this one because, for a while, no team could unseat Oklahoma. Between Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, the Sooners won six straight conference titles and were the favorites to win the league in five of those years.

But a lot has changed in the Big 12 since OU's last championship. First of all, Riley left for USC, which opened the door for Kansas State to win the league two years ago. Then, Oklahoma and Texas left for the SEC.

So while only two non-Oklahoma programs with +600 or longer odds have won this conference in the last 10 years, both have come over the last three seasons. And last year's winner, Texas, is gone now.

This season, Utah is the Big 12 Championship odds favorite, but the Utes are new to the conference as they move over from the Pac-12. For as strong as they could be, they're by no means a runaway favorite.

Between conference realignment, the parity we've seen in the Big 12, and the lack of a blue blood in the league, this is clearly the Power Four conference where a longer shot has the best chance.

Big 12 winners over the last decade

Long shot to bet in 2024: Kansas (+1000)

Kansas having odds this long speaks to how strong the Big 12 is despite lacking a true national championship-contending program. The Jayhawks are coming off a 9-4 season and head coach Lance Leipold is arguably the best program-builder in the country.

Leipold turned Wisconsin-Whitewater into a perennial D-III champ, had a 10-win season at Buffalo, and finished ranked in the top 25 last season with a Kansas team that was 21-108 between 2010 and his arrival in 2021.

Now entering Leipold's fourth season at the helm, this looks like the best Kansas roster since the Mark Mangino days. The Jayhawks bring back a dark-horse Heisman Trophy odds candidate in QB Jalon Daniels and have one of the best running backs in the country in Devin Neal.

Neal is a future NFL back with over 3,000 career rushing yards, and he was fifth in the country in 15-plus-yard runs last season, per PFF. Even with some losses on the offensive line, Kansas should be solid there thanks to transfer portal additions, including center Bryce Foster (Texas A&M).

The key will be Daniels staying healthy after he played in just three games last year. When he's on the field, he's been a weapon with 30 total touchdowns in his last 12 starts. He also returns his top three receivers from last season.

While the offense is what makes this team so tantalizing - it was 17th in SP+ last season - the defense has talent, too, with two preseason All-Big 12 selections in the secondary (Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson). 

If the Jayhawks can overcome the loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State and win the conference, a $10 bet pays a $100 profit.

Best odds: +1000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 9.09%

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MAC

If there's one conference to feel confident betting a long shot in, this is the one. Over the last five seasons, four of the eventual champions had +800 odds or longer to win the MAC.

It's a conference that hasn't had a repeat winner in over a decade, and thanks to the transfer portal, it sees many of its top players defect to green pastures in the Power Four.

While it's arguably the worst conference in terms of talent, the one program that's been consistently viewed as the most talent-rich is dealing with plenty of turnover.

Toledo lost its starting QB in Dequan Finn (Baylor), the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year in Peny Boone (UCF), both its starting cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell (Philadelphia Eagles) and RJ Delancy (Wisconsin), and its best offensive lineman in Vinny Sciury (Texas Tech).

That's part of the reason Miami (OH) is the favorite over the Rockets by the MAC Championship odds. But as we've seen in four of the last five years, the favorite rarely wins this conference, and the RedHawks lost several stars of their own in Caiden Woullard (Oklahoma), Rashad Amos (Ole Miss), Gage Larvadain (South Carolina), and Graham Nicholson (Alabama).

MAC winners over the last decade

Long shot to bet in 2024: Bowling Green (+700)

Nobody was more shocked than I was to see Bowling Green go 7-6 last season. I thought for sure it was going to be Scot Loeffler's last year at the helm after four straight losing seasons with the Falcons. But as we've seen throughout the MAC, these coaches generally have long leashes, and sometimes it pays off to let a coach build.

While Bowling Green doesn't have the longest odds to win the conference, it sits outside of the top four, and this isn't a program that has won many MAC titles this century. If the Falcons win the MAC, it'll be just their third title since 1993.

So why do I think they have a chance if I didn't even expect Loeffler to be the bench boss heading into this year? Well, they have two absolute studs on offense in running back Terion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin Jr.

They're both Sunday players, and this is a conference that's winnable if you have two offensive playmakers talented enough to be starting in the Big Ten. Stewart was second in the country in yards after contact per carry last season (4.81), and Fannin was top five among tight ends in both YAC per reception (9.2) and yards per route run (2.62).

Those two with veteran QB Connor Bazelak and transfer wide receivers Malcolm Johnson (Auburn) and RJ Garcia (Kansas State) could make this the best offense in the conference.

And while the defense lost several starters in the portal, it does bring back preseason All-MAC cornerback Jordan Oladokun, defensive lineman Dontrez Brown, and linebacker Joseph Sipp Jr.

If the Falcons win their first conference title since 2015, a $10 bet pays a $70 profit.

Best odds: +700 via bet365 | Implied probability: 12.50%

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AAC

The newest of the FBS conferences - though technically it's the old Big East - the AAC is an interesting conference to bet a long shot because it's lost so many of the teams it became known for in its 11 seasons of existence.

Six different programs have won the AAC - or a share of the title prior to the conference playing a championship game - and three of those programs are gone. Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati all made the jump to the Power Four, joining the Big 12 last season.

That opened the door for Tulane to become a back-to-back champ, but the Green Wave were a massive long shot when they won the AAC two seasons ago. Now head coach Willie Fritz is the shot-caller at Houston and most of Tulane's star players have gone pro or transferred. 

With three programs having won the conference title with +600 or longer odds since 2016, on top of roster/coaching attrition and realignment, the AAC is a prime conference to bet a long shot.

That's especially true when factoring in that this year's favorite, Memphis, has to play USF, UTSA, and Tulane on the road, and it travels to face Navy the week after playing Florida State.

AAC winners over the last decade

Long shot to bet in 2024: USF (+700)

If USF is bad this season, it's probably because I jinxed the Bulls. I've been banging the table for this program at every opportunity because I was so impressed by what head coach Alex Golesh did in his first season guiding the ship.

USF hasn't been consistently good since the Jim Leavitt days, although Willie Taggart and Charlie Strong both won 10 games as head coach. And the program fell apart under Strong before Jeff Scott ran it into the ground.

So seeing Golesh take over a 1-11 team and notch seven wins was one of the most impressive coaching jobs in the country. Even more impressive was seeing how quickly quarterback Byrum Brown became one of the best passers in the Group of Five.

With Brown behind center as a redshirt freshman, USF was 55th in SP+ on offense and scored the 33rd-most points per game in the country (31.9). He also had the fourth-most big-time throws (20) among QBs in the G5 with an adjusted completion percentage of at least 72%, and he returns 1,000-yard receiver Sean Atkins.

Not to mention, he's a huge bonus in the run game and had the fifth-most 15-plus-yard runs of all QBs in the FBS (11). That will help bolster a ground game led by former Florida running back Nay'quan Wright.

The Bulls are 17th in the country in returning production, and first in the AAC, with an offense that should be explosive enough to make up for a defense that had issues last season. For all its inconsistencies, the defense does feature three All-AAC candidates in linebacker Jhalyn Shuler, defensive lineman Rashad Cheney, and cornerback Aamaris Brown-Bunkley.

USF will certainly have its hands full with Tulane and Memphis to open AAC play, but it gets a lot easier after that. If they can win one of those two games, the Bulls could end up playing in the conference championship and winning the AAC. If they do, a $10 bet profits $70.

Best odds: +700 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 12.50%

Mountain West Conference

Recent history says that when it's not Boise State or Fresno State, it's one of the biggest long shots in the conference. While not quite on the MAC's level, the Mountain West is certainly the conference that's seen a few teams shock everyone.

Since Chris Peterson left Boise State for Washington in 2014, the Broncos haven't been the same powerhouse they once were. They're still the cream of the crop in the conference - and are the favorites again by the Mountain West Championship odds - but there's been a lot of turnover here.

For one, Spencer Danielson is technically a first-year head coach despite going 3-1 and winning the conference as an interim last season. He also lost two key pieces on offense to the portal in QB Taylen Green (Arkansas) and wide receiver Eric McAlister (TCU).

That's tough for a team that's just 108th in returning production on offense and was 82nd in SP+ on defense last season. So even with a star in running back Ashton Jeanty, repeating will be hard.

As for Fresno State, head coach Jeff Tedford just retired due to health reasons, and linebackers coach Tim Skipper was named the interim. Tedford was in charge for both of the Bulldogs' recent conference titles, so this could really shake up the program.

MWC winners over the last decade

Long shot to bet in 2024: Colorado State (+1600)

The Mountain West is a conference seeing a lot of changes heading into the 2024 season. Fresno State, Wyoming, San Diego State, Utah State, San Jose State, Nevada, and New Mexico all have new head coaches. Boise State and UNLV both lost talented QBs to the Power Four. And Air Force ranks dead last in returning production.

That leaves just Hawaii and Colorado State as programs with the same head coach and quarterback from last season. And while I think it's ridiculously impressive that Timmy Chang went 5-8 with the Warriors last season - especially after how badly Todd Graham ruined that program - I'm going with the Rams as my long shot.

You may remember them for taking Deion Sanders' Colorado program to OT before losing 43-35 and upsetting Boise State thanks to a 21-point comeback that ended on a last-second Hail Mary. 

But they're also entering Year 3 under head coach Jay Norvell, who managed to go 30-17 over his last four years at Nevada - one of the most under-resourced programs in the Mountain West. And they sit 39th in returning production with a stellar quarterback-wide receiver duo.

As a redshirt freshman, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 3,460 yards and 22 scores while looking like the man to run Norvell's air raid attack. His aggressive style worked well for the Rams with him finishing fifth in the G5 in big-time throws (24).

He'll once again have Tory Horton to throw to after he opted to return to Fort Collins rather than go pro. Horton is one of the best playmakers in the Mountain West and has over 2,200 receiving yards the last two seasons - he was fourth among G5 receivers in yards per route run last season (2.74).

The defense took some hits losing TJ Crandall (West Virginia) and Grady Kelly (Florida State) to the portal and Mohamed Kamara to the NFL (Miami Dolphins). But it still has all-conference players in linebacker Chase Wilson and safety Jack Howell.

The Rams have the benefit of avoiding Boise State, UNLV, and San Diego State in conference play, however, they'll likely need to win two of their games against Fresno State, Wyoming, and Air Force to have a chance.

If they do somehow win the Mountain West, a $10 bet pays a $160 profit.

Best odds: +1600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 5.88%

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