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Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Tuesday's Sports Slate

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: February 28, 2023 3:06 PM EST • 5 min 18 sec read.

We've shopped the odds and lines at our best sportsbooks in search of today's best bets for Tuesday, Feb. 28. We've got college basketball, NBA, and NHL action on tap for Tuesday, and we also look ahead to this week's PGA Tour event and to the MLB season with some team futures.

Let's look at some of our favorite bets for Tuesday and beyond.

Read on for today's best bets for Tuesday, Feb. 28, based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Tuesday's best bets

  • College basketball: Saint Louis-VCU Over 142.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • NHL: Penguins -1.5 (+192 via Caesars) vs. Predators  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • NBA: Anthony Davis Under 31.5 points and assists (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • MLB: Red Sox to finish fifth in AL East (+165 via DraftKings)
  • PGA Tour: Rory McIlroy to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+1000 via BetMGM)

Tuesday's college basketball best bet

Saint Louis vs. VCU Over 142.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Backing the Over in a VCU game may seem blasphemous, as the Rams have allowed just 59.8 points per game over their last 13. However, Saint Louis’s offense was most successful against them in that span, scoring 65 points and making 40% (8-of-20) of its shots from beyond the arc.

In addition, VCU has been playing with much more pace lately, averaging 80.3 points over its last three games while committing fewer than 10 turnovers in two of them.

This is a four-star play, as the Rams should have plenty of clean possessions again when facing a Billikens defense that ranks 13th in A-10 play in turnover percentage forced (16.1%). 

College basketball best bets made by Mike Spector.

Check out all of our top college basketball picks, as well as our 2023 March Madness odds and 2023 Wooden Award odds.

Tuesday's NHL best bet

Penguins -1.5 (+192 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Penguins are coming off an impressive weekend sweep of St. Louis and Tampa Bay, and get to face a depleted Predators team Tuesday. 

Pittsburgh has gone just 10-12-5 over its past 27 games – but I'm still confident in the Pens as puck line favorites. For one thing, 11 of their 13 road wins have been by a margin of more than one goal – so when they do win away from the Steel City, they win by a lot.

More importantly, the Penguins are taking on a Nashville squad that is both hurt and selling before Friday's NHL trade deadline. Ryan Johansen, Juuso Parssinen, and Filip Forsberg are all hurt while wingers Nino Niederreiter and Tanner Jeannot were recently traded.

For a team that already ranks 24th with 2.88 goals per 60 minutes, taking five regular forwards off the roster is a significant problem. And that presents an ideal matchup for a Pittsburgh team that should not only win, but win big.

Caesars has the best price on the puck line for the Penguins at -1.5 (+192), which is slightly better than DraftKings and PointsBet (both at +190). FanDuel (+184) and BetMGM (+180) are lagging behind here.

NHL best bets made by Scott Cullen.

Check out all of our top NHL picks, as well as our 2023 Stanley Cup odds.

Tuesday's NBA best bet

Anthony Davis Under 31.5 points and assists (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As I wrote in Sunday’s prop piece for the Lakers-Mavs matchup - when we went 3-0 on our picks - predicting which game we get a locked-in version of Anthony Davis is perhaps the most difficult proposition. The betting odds indicate we will get that Tuesday with the Lakers missing LeBron, but I honestly disagree with that theory.

Davis has averaged 24.9 points and 2.6 assists per game in the 39 contests that he has played without James since joining the Lakers, according to StatMuse. That aligns with NumberFire’s projection of 24.3 points and 3.5 assists for Davis on Tuesay, giving us more than a 30% edge on this Under at PointsBet.

Davis is a monster on the glass, averaging 12.4 rebounds per game this season. That’s why I’m avoiding his points, rebounds, and assists combo line of 43.5 here. We simply expect Davis to have a difficult time finding offensive production against a Grizzlies squad that ranks No. 1 in the league in defensive net rating.

Lakers-Grizzlies player prop bets made by Shane Jackson.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Tuesday's MLB best bet

Red Sox to finish 5th in AL East (+165 via DraftKings)

As previously mentioned, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to finish with 83 wins, while PECOTA projects them to finish with 80. Though the numbers vary slightly, the constant is that both models project the Baltimore Orioles to finish fifth. The Orioles didn't make a ton of offseason moves - they added Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to the rotation - but the biggest additions come via full campaigns from their star youngsters.

Adley Rutschman will start the season with the big-league club after an incredibly impressive first 113 games in 2022. Meanwhile, 2023 AL Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson is slated to bat third in an improved Orioles lineup, and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez could open the season in the rotation.

In the end, this bet will come down to the Red Sox and Orioles. Will the Orioles' youngsters make the leap to that next level and challenge the Tampa Bay Rays for third? Though most projection models don't expect such a development, I have a hard time believing this Baltimore team is worse than the one that won 83 games in 2022.

Meanwhile, despite the fact that Sale will begin the season healthy, I don't have much confidence in Boston's rotation logging enough innings to take pressure off the bullpen.

Between Sale (33 years old, 48 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, Kluber (36 years old, 244 innings in last two seasons), and James Paxton (34 years old, 1 1/3 innings in last two seasons), things could go sideways in a hurry. Add in the fact that projected No. 5 starter Garrett Whitlock has featured primarily as a reliever in his first two campaigns and is coming off an injury of his own (and may not even be healthy to begin the campaign), and the only remotely reliable arm in the rotation is Nick Pivetta, who owns a 5.02 ERA for his career.

The Red Sox are still a fine team - 75 to 78 wins in this AL East is nothing to turn your nose up at - and could potentially finish third in the AL Central or AL West. However, they play in the best division in baseball, and that spells doom for a team thin on starting pitching and relying on new faces to lead the offense.

Red Sox team futures picks made by Andrew Brennan.

Check out all of our MLB top picks.

Tuesday's PGA Tour best bet

Rory McIlroy to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+1000 via BetMGM)

If the PGA Tour's first two elevated events of 2023 — the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational — taught us anything, it's that the top names are showing up to win these events. With that in mind, we need to avoid chasing big numbers and take the outlier odds our best sportsbooks are giving us when we can.

The +1000 odds available via BetMGM for McIlroy to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational are still a deal relative to the +900 available elsewhere. He's a former champion of this event and had five straight top-10 finishes at Bay Hill before last year's T-13 showing. Those who've watched Netflix's Full Swing also would've seen how much winning the PGA Tour's marquee events means to the Northern Irishman. Expect a similar performance to the 2022 Tour Championship in honor of Mr. Palmer. 

Statistically, McIlroy has averaged 2.64 true strokes gained on the field per round across 32 career laps of Bay Hill. He's ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in SG: approach, 10th in SG: off-the-tee, first in SG: tee-to-green, ninth in proximity from 175-200 yards, and fifth in par-5 scoring.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks made by Esten McLaren.

Here are our best sportsbooks:

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Sportsbook Review
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