We Asked ChatGPT Who Will Win the 2025 British Open, Plus First-Round Leader, Long Shots & Prop Picks

The Open Championship has returned to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland with the tournament beginning tomorrow at 1:35 a.m. ET, and we've asked ChatGPT for its best British Open AI predictions to help us break down the 156-man field for the final golf major of 2025.

Scottie Scheffler enters Round 1 as the +550 betting favorite by the latest British Open odds across our best golf betting sites.

🤖 British Open AI picks & predictions for Royal Portrush

ChatGPT is a popular large language model chatbot from OpenAI. Note that these picks are for entertainment purposes only, but ChatGPT can help provide insights and information for you to make informed decisions with your British Open picks.

I prompted to ChatGPT to study the 156-man British Open field, player performance, results, and statistics from the 2025 golf season (PGA Tour and DP World Tour), as well as the latest British Open betting odds from our best sports betting sites. Below are its best outright, long-shot, first-round leader, and prop bet predictions.

🏆 ChatGPT's pick to win the 2025 Open Championship

ChatGPT predicts Jon Rahm will win the 2025 British Open at Royal Portrush with a winning 72-hole score of 13-under and a two-stroke margin of victory over Viktor Hovland (11-under).

💰 Best value pick to win the British Open: Jon Rahm at +1200 (12/1)

• Implied probability: 7.69%
• Best odds (+1200 via BetMGM)
• Form & course fit:
• Finished T-8 at the 2025 PGA Championship while leading late, showing major-round resilience and finished T-7 at the U.S. Open
• Strong links pedigree, including two top-10 finishes in majors this season and solid LIV Golf results
• Value edge: Sharply priced behind Scheffler (+550) and McIlroy (+750), yet arguably a tier above them in terms of form and course suitability. Betting at +1200 offers good upside if Rahm outperforms those in front

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📊 Why Rahm stands out

• While Scheffler (+550) and McIlroy (+750) are strong favorites, their odds reflect limited value - implied win chances are low relative to payout.
• Rahm’s 7.69% implied chance is realistic given his consistency and style of play, offering the best ROI among top contenders

🎯 Honorable mentions (value plays)

• Tommy Fleetwood (+2800): Strong links specialist, runner-up at Portrush in 2019, solid SG: approach and T2G stats
• Tyrrell Hatton (+3300): Consistent on links, three-time Dunhill Links winner, T-6 in the 2019 Open at Portrush
• Xander Schauffele (+2500): Defending champion with high strokes-gained form, though priced deeper as the best sports betting apps conservatively adjust expectations

✅ Final recommendation:

Place your main outright bet on Jon Rahm at +1200 (12/1). For higher payouts, consider smaller bets each-way on Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) or Tyrrell Hatton (+3300). They both offer upside at longer odds.

🔮 British Open expert picks

For those who prefer human-made predictions, here are the top British Open picks from SBR's experts:

• British Open first-round leader predictions
• British Open odds
• British Open picks to win
• British Open long-shot picks
• British Open power rankings
• British Open projected cut line

🏌️‍♂️ Jon Rahm’s 72-hole score & margin of victory

• Predicted winning score: -11 to -13
• Expect the winning score around 13-under par, with variable wind and rain that could keep scoring in the low double digits under par
• Shane Lowry won at -15 during the 2019 event at Royal Portrush, but recent weather forecasts suggest slightly tougher conditions this week, so I lean closer to -13.
• Predicted margin of victory: 2-3 strokes
• Based on odds distribution and recent form, a win by a couple of strokes seems most realistic
• Prop odds list +330 for a 2-stroke win and +550 for 3 strokes, whereas +400 for a 1-stroke outcome suggests mid-field value, with oddsmakers expecting a narrow but clear win

➡️ Therefore, my base call is: Rahm at -13, winning by 2 strokes.

🥈 Likely runner-up

• Viktor Hovland
• Hovland is a top pick to finish second, under the predicting he’ll land close to -12 and just behind the winner
• Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are favorites, but I believe their odds underestimate a strong, composed performance from Hovland, and his recent major form supports that's coming

⏰ ChatGPT's first-round leader prediction for The Open Championship

🎯 Top pick: Scottie Scheffler

• Best odds: +1600 via DraftKings (15% implied probability)
• Why Scheffler?
• World No. 1 is in stellar form entering the championship
• Known for strong starts, his game remains sharp even when he's not contending late
• Despite firm coastal conditions and weather swings, his ball-striking and consistency suit a fast-paced links first round

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💡 Why not long shots?

While options like Marco Penge (80/1) and Lucas Glover (140/1) offer high variance, and veterans like Justin Rose (60/1) or Brooks Koepka (50/1) provide nostalgic value, I prefer Scheffler for a solid, likely front-runner that maximizes both probability and payout.

🥈 Secondary picks (each-way or small bets)

• Justin Rose at 60/1: Proven first-round performer in majors, coming off a strong final round of 63 in the Scottish Open
• Brooks Koepka at 50/1: Links-capable, fast starter, and early-round leader in recent majors
• Marco Penge at 80/1: In-form on the DP World Tour (Hainan winner, Scottish Open runner-up)

✅ Suggested strategy

1. Main bet: Scheffler at +1600 to lead Round 1
2. Each-way coverage: small bets on Rose, Koepka, or Penge for potential upside

🐎 Best British Open AI long-shot prediction

🎯 Top long-shot pick: Hideki Matsuyama

• Best odds: +8500 via bet365
• Why Matsuyama?
• Elite ball-striking: Ranked 18th in SG: Approach and 20th in SG: Tee‑to‑Green this season.
• In-form: Has finished in the 60s during seven of his last nine rounds, including a T-13 at the Rocket Classic
• Major credentials: Masters champion (2021), experienced under pressure
• Links suitability: Accurate iron play often wins out on firm, tricky coastal courses

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🧩 Alternate long-shot contenders

• Justin Rose: +7500 (75/1) via DraftKings
• A former Open runner-up with a sharp short game; T-2 last year and strong Scottish Open form.
• Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, and Ben Griffin – also at +7500 via DraftKings
• These names fall into the same long-shot bracket if you're open to deeper picks
• Russell Henley at +6500: hidden value with stellar stats and Open experience

✅ My pick

• Hideki Matsuyama at +8500: This pick blends long-shot upside with legitimate major-winning credentials and in-form play, making it the best deep-value bet to win the Claret Jug

💰 ChatGPT's best British Open prop bets

Here are some of ChatGPT's favorite prop bets for the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush, based on current odds and course fit:

🏆 Projected top‑10 Open Championship leaderboard

Here is ChatGPT's projected top-10 leaderboard after 72 holes at Royal Portrush:

💡 Notes on the predictions:

• Jon Rahm takes the championship at -13
• Viktor Hovland holds his consistent play to finish solo second at -11
• Scheffler and McIlroy in a tight tie at -10, reflecting their ability to respond under pressure yet just miss the win
• Schauffele, the defending champion, lands solo fifth, maintaining strong form
• Fleetwood and Hatton share sixth (–8), representing local favorites with links pedigree
• Fitzpatrick and Morikawa are inside the top‑10 at -7 (T-8)
• DeChambeau finishes solo 10th at -6, with his long-ball ways falling short of contention

👀 Most popular British Open bets

Here's how the betting action is coming in on the British Open's outright winner at BetMGM:

BetMGM also reports it received a $5,00 bet on Bryson DeChambeau to win The Open Championship at +2200. A winning bet would return a $110,000 profit.

And here are the most popular bets at BetMGM (by tickets) in various prop markets:

⛳ Golf betting odds pages

🏌️Here are the best golf betting sites for the 2025 British Open

Looking to bet on the British Open? Here are the top-rated best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:

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