2024 British Open Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Royal Troon
The 2024 British Open returns to Royal Troon in Scotland, with tee times beginning Thursday at 6:35 a.m. local (1:35 a.m. ET).
Henrik Stenson won here the last time the historic course played host to The Open eight years ago, and my British Open best bets hope to find this year's winner of the Claret Jug.
In the final major of the year on a true links test, I’m looking to hone in on top finishing markets for Collin Morikawa and Tom Kim, along with my pick to win and some plus-money picks in the top 20, 30, and 40 betting markets.
Scottie Scheffler remains the heavy consensus favorite by the British Open odds, with odds as short as +450 representing an implied win probability of 18.18%.
British Open picks
Odds from our best golf betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Pick to win: Xander Schauffele (+1400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 5: Collin Morikawa (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 10: Tom Kim (+360 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 20: Brian Harman (+225 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Top 30: Sebastian Soderberg (+310 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Top 40: Matt Wallace (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Royal Troon course info
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,385 yards
- Architect: George Strath & Willie Fernie, 1888; James Braid, 1923
Modest in its length, even with the added yardage this year, Royal Troon’s true tests come in the form of demanding players to be accurate off the tee, have elite ball striking capabilities with the minuscule greens and, of course, temperamental Scottish weather and wind.
The first six holes at Royal Troon are relatively benign and will allow golfers to start accumulating circles on their scorecard before the course starts punching back with holes playing into the wind and becoming more than just flat and stagnant challenges.
I am honing in on elite ball strikers with plus putters that have at least field average or better accuracy with the best chances at avoiding fairway bunkers and gorse bushes.
Pick to win The Open
Xander Schauffele ⭐⭐⭐
There are a couple of reasons I am awarding Xander his second major of the season in this column, chief among them are the awful odds on both Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. However, BetMGM gives us a fantastic number on Schauffele with the rest of the books around +1100 on the reigning PGA Championship winner.
Tongue in cheek aside, there’s also an enormous amount to like about how Schauffele is entering this season's final major. Not only is he in the elite tier of ball strikers and tee to green players, he also is first in the entire field in putting over his last 20 rounds. That’s nothing to sneer at.
He has also won in Scotland before, winning the Genesis Scottish Open two years ago and also playing the event this year as he is now accustomed to doing. He shook off a first-round 69 in which he fought himself the entire way, bounded back with a 65 (most birdies coming on the back 9) to not only safely made the cut, but posted back-to-back weekend rounds of 67 to cozy into a T-15.
Finally getting the major monkey off his back this year, he’s ready to continue capitalizing on his otherworldly season and add a second major.
Best odds: +1400 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 6.67%
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British Open top finish best bets
Top 5: Collin Morikawa ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Very solid plus money on Morikawa - who was nearly my pick to win it all - seems like a no-brainer. He’s having one of the best statistical seasons of his career to date and has won The Open before.
Morikawa hasn’t finished outside of top 16 since the Masters and has logged five (!) top 5 finishes in those last nine tournaments, a 56% top-five rate over the past three months. Look for his wildly successful run to continue at a course that suits his game.
Best odds: +350 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 22.22%
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Top 10: Tom Kim ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kim has been on a heater of late and the biggest blip in his recent run was a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which can easily be explained away as fatigue as it was his ninth straight tournament.
A return to action on a links-style course last week in the Scottish Open returned him to the top 15 and he’s had plenty of success at this style of course. I'm confident in Kim’s abilities and recent return to form.
Comparative to those around him, FanDuel offers a great number.
Best odds: +360 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 21.74%
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Top 20: Brian Harman ⭐⭐⭐⭐
BetMGM gives us another great number on the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, who returns to defend his title in great form. It is eerily reminiscent of last year where his game is trending and how he’s coming in.
A 21st at the U.S. Open, a ninth in the Travelers Championship, and a 21st in the Scottish Open last week, Harman getting such a solid plus number as the reigning champ is one I’m willing to take.
Putting would be the only thing holding him back, but his accuracy, iron game and ball striking have returned to normal form.
Best odds: +225 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 30.77%
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Top 30: Sebastian Soderberg ⭐⭐⭐
A popular sleeper last week before illness caused a withdrawal, the Swedish DP World Tour star rattled off three second-place finishes and a third-place showing in four of his previous six tournaments.
A top third player in the field in ball striking & from tee to green, Caesars gives us a solid number I couldn’t find elsewhere. I like taking chances on the unknown Euro players before the books catch on to them.
Best odds: +310 via Caesars | Implied probability: 24.39%
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Top 40: Matt Wallace ⭐⭐⭐
The top 40 market has tightened considerably, but bet365 has a good number on Wallace as well as several others, considerably better for top 40 finishes than the other books.
Wallace is in the top third of the field for both ball striking and tee-to-green play. The Englishman will be familiar with the challenges here and had been on quite a run before two missed cuts which I am attributing to jet lag from multiple transatlantic flights. With four top 40 finishes in his previous seven tournaments dating back to May, the number justifies the low bar to clear this finish position.
Best odds: +210 via bet365 | Implied probability: 32.26%
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Open Championship picks
- British Open odds
- British Open first-round leader picks
- British Open best bets
- British Open long-shot picks
- British Open expert picks
- British Open power rankings
Open Championship odds - July 17
(British Open odds from our best sports betting sites as of Wednesday at 9:10 a.m. ET | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Golfer | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +500 | +450 | +500 | +450 | +550 🔥 |
| Rory McIlory (NI) | +900 | +850 | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1300 🔥 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1700 🔥 |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2000 🔥 | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1700 |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 | +2000 🔥 | +1800 | +1400 | +1400 | +1700 |
| Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2400 ❄️ |
| Tommy Fleetwood 🏴 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 ❄️ | +2200 |
| Tyrrell Hatton 🏴 | +2800 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 | +2400 ❄️ |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +3000 ❄️ | +3500 | +3300 | +3500 | +3200 |
| Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸 | +4000 | +4000 | +4500 | +3500 ❄️ | +4500 |
| Tiger Woods 🇺🇸 | +17000 ❄️ | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 🔥 |
How to bet on golf
Betting on the British Open at Royal Troon involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance.
First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf.
For example, you can place an outright winner bet, where you wager on who will win the British Open.
Each-way bets cover both a win and a top finish, which could be particularly useful if you're betting on a player like Rory McIlroy to either win or finish in the top five.
Head-to-head matchups allow you to bet on who will perform better between two players, such as Jordan Spieth vs. Brooks Koepka.
Proposition bets involve specific events within the tournament, like betting on whether there will be a hole-in-one on the famous Postage Stamp (8th hole) at Royal Troon or predicting an individual player's performance on that hole.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes.
Consider how players have performed in past British Opens at Royal Troon, noting that Henrik Stenson won there in 2016 with a record score. Analyze player statistics, such as driving accuracy and putting efficiency, which are crucial on Royal Troon's challenging links course.
Look at recent tournament performances and any injuries or changes in form. For instance, if a top player like Jon Rahm has been recovering from an injury, it might affect his performance at the British Open.
Here are our best golf betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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