Genesis Invitational Picks, Odds 2023: Rahm, McIlroy, Scheffler Favored Again with Tiger in Field

This week's Genesis Invitational already had an absolutely stacked field following the WM Phoenix Open but it received an extra boost late last week with Tiger Woods announcing his return to play. Check out our Genesis Open picks based on the best golf odds.

Scottie Scheffler just repeated as the WM Phoenix Open champion and dethroned Rory McIlroy for No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) in the process. Scheffler held off former world No. 1 Jon Rahm and Canadian Nick Taylor in the final round for a two-stroke victory. He'll compete against many of the world's best golfers, including McIlroy and Rahm, for a second straight week in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. this week.

Of course, even those three top contenders take a back seat to Tiger's return to golf this week. This will be Tiger's first competitive event since a missed cut at The Open Championship. He carries outright odds as high as +15000 via BetMGM this week but a bet on a win in this field may be a little too hopeful.

Check out our top Genesis Invitational picks as we preview the tournament and assess the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Genesis Invitational: Picks

• Will Zalatoris (+4000 via BetMGM)
• Tom Kim (+4500 via PointsBet)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000 via DraftKings)

Genesis Invitational odds 2023

Check out our Masters odds, Players Championship odds, and PGA Championship odds.

Genesis Invitational key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• Good drive percentage
• Bogey avoidance
• Par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards

With Riviera Country Club hosting this event every year since 1999, course history and experience at this venue are highly important when looking to pick an outright winner. Cameron Young was an exception to that rule in his T-2 debut at Riviera last year, but recent Genesis Invitational winners Max Homa and Adam Scott finished in the top 10 the year preceding their victory.

Ball striking is the most important trait this week, especially on approach to the greens. We'll also need to strongly consider play around the greens due to the firm and fast putting surfaces. Good drive percentage is our third key stat with no clear preference for accuracy or distance based on the past leaderboards.

Joaquin Niemann was the second winner of this event since 2010 to finish better than minus-15. As such, we'll look to bogey avoidance over birdie-or-better percentage. Scoring will need to be done on the long par 4s, though.

Genesis Invitational picks and predictions

Will Zalatoris (+4000 via DraftKings)

The odds on Zalatoris to win The Genesis Invitational have started to fall entering Wednesday as a possible sign that he's healthier than the sportsbooks first believed at the beginning of the week.

Zalatoris, ranked eighth in the OWGR, is one of the few top-ranked golfers who sat out last week's event in Phoenix. That came after a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open in his most recent event as he may be opting to play a lighter schedule early this year after the back injury that forced him to withdraw from the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs.

I don't mind the week off ahead of his return to an event and course where he tied for 26th last year and for 15th in 2021. The expert ball striker averaged 1.15 SG: approach per round at Riviera last year. That is helping me to not be too concerned over his poor ranking in the same metric through just seven measured rounds this season.

More promisingly for this event, Zalatoris leads the PGA Tour in good drive percentage thus far on the 2022-23 season. That complements a rank of 11th in bogey avoidance. This is an excellent buy-low opportunity on a golfer who is priced as low as +1900 to win the Masters. 

Tom Kim (+4500 via PointsBet)

Kim struggled mightily over the weekend at the Phoenix Open after putting himself into contention with a Friday round of 66. That weekend performance came with very uncharacteristic poor ball striking.

Still, Kim is 11th for the season in SG: approach, 30th in SG: around-the-green, and eighth in good drive percentage. Add in a rank of fourth in bogey avoidance and I'm willing to count on a bounce-back performance for a golfer who was as low as +1500 to win last week against a very similar field.

With odds as low as +3000 for Kim to win this week via Caesars, he's a highly recommended bet at this +4500 available via PointsBet.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000 via DraftKings)

Fitzpatrick used a Sunday round of 6-under 65 to climb to T-29 at the WM Phoenix Open. The round was fueled by a field-best 2.55 SG: around-the-green to go with a strong 1.46 SG: putting and 1.56 SG: off-the-tee.

Fitzpatrick meets our prior emphasis on course history success. He tied for fifth in this event in his last appearance in 2021, and that followed a T-30 showing in his 2020 debut at Riviera. The reigning U.S. Open champ has odds as low as +3300 via Caesars this week, and I'd be comfortable playing Fitzpatrick down to around +3500 or lower depending on movement for the rest of the competition.

Genesis Invitational info

When: Thursday, Feb. 16 - Sunday, Feb. 19
Where: Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, CA
How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+, CBS

Riviera Country Club course profile

Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
Greens: Poa Annua

Riviera Country Club is a favorite course of many PGA Tour professionals, and thus a regular stop on their respective schedules. At 7,322 yards, it's relatively long for a par-71 course, and that additional length comes primarily via the par 4s with six ranging from 450-500 yards. None of those six and only seven of the 18 holes played below par last year.

Though two of the three par 5s exceed 580 yards, each of the three played at least 0.371 strokes under par last year. They accounted for a total of 57 eagles and just 40 scores of bogey or worse. Three of the four par 3s are shorter than 200 yards but only one of the four played below par last year.

The main challenges at Riviera come from the narrow fairways and hard putting surfaces. Even the most precise approach shots aren't guaranteed to remain close to the hole or even on the greens. While there is plenty of water on the course, it's not really in play on any holes, with sand bunkers providing additional protection of the greens.

Genesis Invitational power rankings

Genesis Invitational power rankings courtesy or Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker.

10. Max Homa

Homa is on a heater, and he won the 2021 Genesis. Checking all the statistical boxes only sweetens the deal for the California kid. Still, I’m not convinced he’ll take down a deep field this time around. His statement win of the season was at Torrey Pines.

9. Matt Fitzpatrick

A 65 on Sunday propelled Fitzpatrick up 28 places at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and that will be a springboard for a solid showing this week at the Genesis. The reigning U.S. Open champ finished fifth here in 2021, and he possesses the short game to navigate the firm and fast Riviera greens.

8. Rory McIlroy

Expect Riviera to fit McIlroy’s eye better than TPC Scottsdale did last week. He's made the cut in five of six trips to this venue while recording three top-10 results. McIlroy also ranks second in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 16 measured rounds.

7. Sam Burns

Burns finished third here two years ago, and he’s coming off an impressive weekend at the Waste Management, including firing a Saturday-low 64. His true SG: approach ranks 74th in this field across his past 44 measured rounds, so that’ll need to be tidied up to contend this week.

6. Scottie Scheffler

Results and statistics all point to Scheffler being in contention again this week. He finished T-7 here last season and is coming off his fifth win in a calendar year. Pacing the tour in bogey avoidance could prove critical at the demanding Riviera.

5. Tony Finau

Expect Finau to be a popular target for poolies and punters this week. He owns a pair of runner-up finishes at Riviera, and Fineau is arguably playing the best and most well-rounded golf of his career. Finau also ranks eighth in true SG: putting over his past 41 measured rounds.

4. Justin Thomas

I’m bullish about Thomas’ upside this week following improved play across the final three rounds at the Waste Management, particularly on the greens. He's logged three top-10 results at Riviera, and Thomas boasts the tee-to-green game to secure his first win of the season.

3. Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay has played over the weekend in five consecutive trips to Riviera, and he ranks third in scoring average and first in Par 4 scoring. His best finish was a T-4 in 2018, and he’s also hoping for statistical correction with his ball-striking. Missing the cut at the Waste Management isn’t a concern.

2. Xander Schauffele

Poor results on and around the greens held Schauffele back last week, but he's still registered three consecutive top-10 finishes this winter, and five straight top-25 showings at this event. Schauffele ranks fourth in both SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green, too.

1. Jon Rahm

Good luck nitpicking Rahm heading into the Genesis. He’s played the weekend in all four trips to Riviera with two top-10 results, and he’s posted six consecutive top-10 finishes this season. Add in ranking No. 1 in scoring average and SG: total, and he remains the player to beat every week.

Genesis Invitational expert picks

Genesis Invitational expert picks made by Esten McLaren, Neil Parker, and Shane Jackson.

Genesis Invitational outright picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000 via DraftKings)

Fitzpatrick's becoming my favorite outright bet of the week for the Genesis Invitational. The Englishman's odds have fluctuated between +4000 and +4500 since Monday's opening lines, and the +4000 available via DraftKings Wednesday is still a bargain compared to Caesars' market-low price of +3300.

The reigning U.S. Open champ is coming off a final round of 6-under 66 at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He excelled off the tee, around the greens, and on the putting surfaces in that performance. He's also had some quality showings in this event, led by a T-5 in 2021. - McLaren

Patrick Cantlay (+2500 via BetMGM)

There were longer numbers available earlier this week, but I’m still content with this price considering Cantlay is trading as low as +2200 through two of our other best sportsbooks. The difference might not appear significant, but it represents a positive expected value of 12% and reinforces the importance of landing the best odds.

More importantly, Cantlay heads to the Genesis third in scoring average and first in par-4 scoring. He has also played the weekend at Riviera in each of his past five stops, including a T-4 result during the 2018 event. The 2020-21 FedEx Cup Champion isn’t shy about taking down big-field events.

Still, the kicker for me is that he has statistical correction ahead with his irons. Despite pacing the tour in greens-in-regulation percentage, Cantlay has lost strokes on approach this season. He gained .363 strokes per round and ranked 38th on tour in SG: approach last year, so I’m expecting him to dial it in this week at a familiar track where he’s had past success. - Parker

Collin Morikawa (+2000 via DraftKings)

A popular outright play last weekend, Morikawa missed the cut and bettors might be afraid to go back to him as a result. That should never be a concern for the two-time major winner, who has a knack for turning it on in the biggest events and is set up to have success at the Genesis Invitational.

Morikawa, who is from California, has made the weekend in each of his last three trips to Riviera CC and finished T-2 last year. As one of the best iron players in this sport, Morikawa’s game is built for this. He ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach over the last 50 measured rounds in this field.

Sportsbooks seem to agree, listing him at 20/1 at four of our five our five best sportsbooks. As long as you stay away from FanDuel’s 19/1 offering, you will get the best price on my pick to win this week’s Tiger-led tournament. - Jackson

Genesis Invitational long-shot picks

Adam Hadwin (+12500 via Caesars)

As my picks above suggest, I'm in love with the +4000 - +50000 range of the odds board. With plenty of value in that group, I'd much prefer to double down on my selections there. However, Hadwin at this price is at least worth a sprinkle.

The Canadian has had past success at Riviera with a top finish of T-6 in 2018. And although he missed the cut in last year's tournament, I'm expecting a turnaround given his recent form.

Hadwin is averaging 1.13 true stokes gained putting across his last nine measured rounds. That's supported by more consistent metrics of 0.69 SG: approach and 0.23 SG: around-the-green per rounds. If this seems a little adventurous, don't be afraid to turn to Caesars' +850 odds for a top-10 finish. - McLaren

Shane Lowry (+11000 via PointsBet)

There are a few things working against Lowry this week. He’s played sparingly of late on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, which includes missing the cut last week at the Phoenix Open in his 2023 U.S. debut. Additionally, the Irishman’s recent statistics don’t jump off the page, and he withdrew from the 2017 Genesis and missed the cut the following year in his last trip to Riviera.

Still, even with all the flaws of the OWGR, Lowry is the 22nd-ranked player and won the BMW PGA Championship in September. Also, if we dial back the statistical microscope, he ranks 10th in true SG: approach and 16th in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his 73 measured rounds over the past calendar year.

I’m thrilled to add Lowry to my betting portfolio at this inflated price, and I highly recommend hedging an outright ticket with a top-10 or top-20 wager because of just how long the odds are. It’s also worth highlighting he’s trading as low as +8000 through FanDuel, so securing the +11000 number presents a positive expected value of 33%. - Parker

Adam Scott (+6000 via Caesars)

It is rare to find a long shot with Scott’s track record at this event. Scott has made the weekend in nine consecutive tries, which includes a trio of top-10 finishes, and a win in 2020. And, yet, he’s sitting at 60/1 at Caesars. Why?

Well, the fact we haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour since a T21 at the Sony Open might have something to do with it. He also finished 29th at the Sentry the previous week in early January. This is an elite field, so it is tough to have too much confidence in a long shot. At 60/1, you could do worse than someone with Scott’s reputation here and many of the other biggest events on the schedule. - Jackson

Genesis Invitational prop picks

Tiger Woods to make the cut (+180 via FanDuel)

Well, someone had to do it.

Tiger can't compete in an event without garnering some attention from bettors. Though it has become a regular interview answer for him, Tiger told reporters on Tuesday that he wouldn't be competing if he didn't think he could win.

Given the strong field, I'm not willing to go that far (even at odds of +10000 and higher), but making it to the weekend at a venue where he has averaged 0.73 true strokes gained on the field per round, seems a safe bet. These odds are as low as +150 elsewhere, though there are several boosts up to +200 for Tiger to make the cut offered by various sportsbooks.

Sam Burns Top 20 (+150 via DraftKings)

I’ve been watching Burns closely in the new year, and the 26-year-old is posting results without putting it all together on the course. He flashed the complete game necessary to contend over the weekend at the Phoenix Open and finished the event ranked 12th in SG: tee-to-green and eighth in SG: around-the-green.

Burns is also eyeing statistical correction with his irons. He ranked 18th in SG: approach (.554 per round) last season, but this year he’s lost strokes (-0.310) and ranks 150th in the metric. He ranks sixth in this field in true SG: putting across his past 44 measured rounds, so even a slight improvement from the fairway could make a notable difference in his scoring.

Burns carded a third-place result at Riviera and tied the 36-hole course record during the 2021 event. It was his springboard to success, as Burns has been rolling ever since with four wins and another 20 top-20 finishes. I’m expecting another solid showing this week at the course where he first burst onto the scene. - Parker

Max Homa to Finish top 10 (+220 via FanDuel)

While I’ll probably be betting on Tiger to miss the cut this week (sorry, not sorry), I don’t want to suggest such a juiced prop for this column. Instead, let’s bet on the combination of Homa’s history here and his overall heater entering this event.

Homa won this tournament in 2021 by gaining nearly nine strokes tee-to-green to hold off Tony Finau, and he finished inside the top 10 of the Genesis Invitational leaderboard in each of the last three years. 

Add in the fact he’s already won in 2023, Homa seems like a safe bet to be in the mix come Sunday. I’m certainly willing to take the +220 offering, which is available at both FanDuel and DraftKings. - Jackson

Recent Genesis Invitational winners

How to watch The Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational will be broadcasted on Golf Channel and CBS, with PGA Tour Live streaming exclusive early-round coverage.

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