2024 Memorial Tournament Expert Picks, Odds & Favorites: Scheffler Leads Field to Muirfield Village
The third major of 2024 is just a week away, and our Memorial Tournament expert picks are based on the PGA Tour odds from our best golf betting sites as we look to pad our bankrolls.
This week's Memorial Tournament features a small 73-man field at Jack Nicklaus' Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Scottie Scheffler, already a commanding favorite by next week's U.S. Open odds, sits atop this week's oddsboard over Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and defending tournament champion Viktor Hovland.
McIlroy is coming off a T-4 finish in last week's RBC Canadian Open, Schauffele tees it up for the first time since his breakthrough PGA Championship win, and Hovland will try to return to the winner's circle after resurrecting his 2024 play with a strong third-place showing in the year's second major.
The U.S. Open tees off next week at Pinehurst Resort & Country Club, and this week's results will have a major impact on the oddsboard and our U.S. Open picks.
Memorial Tournament picks
Odds from our best sports betting sites
- First click: Russell Henley to win (+5500 via DraftKings)
- Lee Hodges to finish top 20 (+330 via DraftKings)
- Wyndham Clark to finish top 10 (+360 via Caesars)
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Memorial Tournament odds 2024
Memorial Tournament odds as of Wednesday 2:50 p.m. ET
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +360 | +360 | +400 🔥 | +360 | +375 |
| Rory McIlroy (NI) | +900 | +900 | +1000 🔥 | +900 | +900 |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +900 | +900 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +1600 | +1800 🔥 | +1600 | +1200 ❄️ | +1600 |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 ❄️ | +2800 🔥 | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸 | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 🔥 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood 🏴 | +2800 | +3500 | +4000 🔥 | +3500 | +2800 |
| Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 ❄️ | +3000 | +3000 |
| Max Homa 🇺🇸 | +4000 | +4500 | +4500 | +3500 ❄️ | +4000 |
Memorial Tournament picks
Lee Hodges to finish top 20
Hodges is trending toward his second PGA Tour victory. The 2023 champion of the 3M Open tied for 12th in each of the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge, and he had that exact same finish in last year's Memorial Tournament while making his professional debut at Muirfield Village.
Hodges is an elite ball striker who's averaging 0.87 strokes gained: approach and 0.70 SG: tee-to-green across his last 19 measured rounds. Those were both strengths of his during last year's tournament until he unraveled with a closing round of plus-4 on Sunday. He claimed his first PGA Tour victory a month later.
Despite the trends and the pedigree for success, BetMGM is offering market-low odds of +275 for this pick. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 20.00%, but we can attain an extra $4.50 in profit on a winning $10 ticket by placing this wager with DraftKings.
Best odds: +330 via DraftKings
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Wyndham Clark to finish top 10
It's been a weird couple of months for Clark after rising to a career-best third in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a T-3 finish in the RBC Heritage.
After winning the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and placing second in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, Clark missed the cut in the Masters and the PGA Championship. He also had a luckluster T-47 finish in his attempted defense of the Wells Fargo Championship.
Yet, the fourth-ranked golfer in the OWGR is still positioned to improve on last year's career-best T-12 finish at Muirfield Village. Clark is the third-longest hitter in this field across everyone's last 20 rounds. He's eight on Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage from this week's key distance of 200-plus yards, and he's also gaining strokes in all key metrics despite his erratic tournament finishes of late.
Clark has proven his merit in Signature Events this season better than any golfer not named Scottie Scheffler. His outright odds - offensively as high as +5000 via FanDuel are well worth a bet - but the $36 profit on a winning $10 bet for a modest top 10 finish is my best play of the week.
Best odds: +360 via Caesars
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My first click: Russell Henley to win
Pick made Monday at 8 a.m. ET. The best odds as of Tuesday have dropped to +5000 via FanDuel.
Henley has just two PGA Tour wins in the past decade, with his most recent victory coming during the fall of 2022. Still, he's back up to No. 16 in the OWGR amid a strong run that included a T-10 in the Wells Fargo Championship and a T-23 in the PGA Championship.
Always an elite ball-striker, Henley has averaged 1.03 strokes gained: approach per round across his last 20 rounds. That metric accompanies 0.57 SG: around-the-green and 1.77 SG: tee-to-green. He's also been one of the most accurate drivers in this field over that same 20-round time span.
A relative lack of distance has hurt Henley in this event in the past, but he's coming off a T-16 finish last year at Muirfield Village GC. We can also take advantage of outlier odds via DraftKings, with BetMGM offering the market-low price of +4000 for Henley to win this week.
bet365 offers an appealing +375 ticket for a top 5 finish, if the outright win feels a little too bold.
Best odds: +5500 via DraftKings
Memorial Tournament favorite
Scottie Scheffler
Quick, act surprised.
Still very comfortably perched atop the OWGR, Scheffler is the consensus betting favorite this week, as he has been for every event he's played this year. That said, he's gone two events without a victory and came up five strokes shy of Davis Riley in the Charles Schwab Challenge his last time out.
That's enough cause for concern with these +375 odds representing a 21.05% implied win probability. A winning $10 bet would return a profit of just $37.50 against one of the strongest non-major fields of the year.
This venue and its tournament conditions also serve well as a U.S. Open tune-up. The thick rough, and firm and fast greens add elements of chaos that can change the leaderboard in a hurry.
Despite solo third-place finishes in this event in 2021 and last year, Scheffler draws a pass in the outright market, and bettors should look for other ways to get action on the tournament favorite.
Best odds: +400 via BetMGM
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Memorial Tournament info
- Where: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio
- When: Thursday, June 6 - Sunday, June 9
- Field: 73
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+400 via BetMGM)
- 2023 champion: Viktor Hovland
- Purse: $20 million
- FedEx Cup points: 700
Muirfield Village Golf Club course info
- Par: 72
- Length: 7,569 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Architect: Jack Nicklaus
The Memorial Tournament is the perfect final tune-up U.S. Open. Nicklaus tailors the conditions to the difficulty of the year's third major, with thick and long rough, as well as firm and fast greens.
Competitors must specialize - or catch fire - with their iron play while avoiding the trouble areas. The 7,569-yard, par-72 venue plays longer than it reads due to those conditions, so golfers must hit it far and/or very accurately off the tee.
Memorial Tournament recent winners
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Viktor Hovland | +2000 | -7 (playoff) |
| 2022 | Billy Horschel | +6000 | -13 |
| 2021 | Patrick Cantlay | +2000 | -13 (playoff) |
| 2020 | Jon Rahm | +2000 | -9 |
| 2019 | Patrick Cantlay | +1400 | -19 |
| 2018 | Bryson DeChambeau | +4000 | -15 (playoff) |
| 2017 | Jason Dufner | +6000 | -13 |
| 2016 | William McGirt | Field (+350) | -15 (playoff) |
| 2015 | David Lingmerth | Field (+300) | -15 (playoff) |
| 2014 | Hideki Matsuyama | +5000 | -13 (playoff) |
Historical odds via golfodds.com
How to bet on golf
When it comes to golf betting, it's essential to understand the various types of wagers available and how to assess player performance effectively. Begin by acquainting yourself with the common bet types, such as outright winners, each-way bets (which encompass both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups, and proposition bets tailored to specific tournament events, like hole-in-one occurrences or player performances on designated holes.
Once you've determined your preferred bet types, conduct thorough research on players, course conditions, recent form, and other pertinent factors that could influence outcomes. Delve into player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may impact a player's chances of success. Armed with this information, you can make well-informed betting decisions and increase your likelihood of success in golf betting.
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