2022 Phoenix Open Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

The PGA Tour's Phoenix Open sets the betting table for the 2022 Super Bowl, and our golf experts give you their top picks of the week to help stock those bankrolls.

Brooks Koepka is back to defend his title at The People's Open at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, AZ. He'll have to do so against a stacked field that includes world No. 1 and Arizona State University alum Jon Rahm.

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Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their top Phoenix Open picks and predictions.

Phoenix Open Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: Phoenix Open Picks and Preview

Phoenix Open Picks to Win

Matsuyama (+1800 via Caesars Sportsbook)

I’ll dare to be different and fade Thomas as well as my two colleagues. In doing so, I’ll back the two-time Phoenix Open winner in Matsuyama, who already has two wins this season to get back to No. 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

In addition to back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017, Matsuyama was a runner-up in 2015. He leads this week’s field among those with a minimum of 10 rounds played at TPC Scottsdale with an average of 2.55 total strokes gained per round. Not only is his iron play in top form, as shown at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but he possesses a key intangible for one of the PGA Tour’s marquee events.

The Japanese star has proven to be immune to the raucous atmosphere of The People’s Open at the Stadium Course in Scottsdale. He showed those same traits while rising to new heights with his Masters win last April. He has three victories inside the last 365 days, and he has missed just one cut since his win at Augusta National.

Matsuyama’s +1400 to +1600 to win at other books, so I’ll take this added value and run. - McLaren

Thomas (+1400 via BetMGM)

Thomas is a 14-time winner on the PGA Tour and ranks seventh in the OWGR. It has been almost a year since he last won, with his latest victory at The Players Championship in March 2021.

Thomas at +1400 is much shorter than the golfers I typically recommend and this play feels a bit too chalky; however, the Phoenix Open continues to be won by world-class players. It is a party-like atmosphere that draws the world's best, and they feed off of this energy.

Thomas has gained an average of 1.87 strokes per round over 24 rounds at TPC Scottsdale. He finished in the top three in two of his last three trips.

The most compelling aspect of Thomas' game is his performance on the greens at TPC Scottsdale. Thomas has averaged 0.91 strokes gained: putting over his last four appearances in this event. It is already well known that he is one of the world's best iron players, so when you combine that with his success on these greens, he becomes a serious contender. - Metler

SEE ALSO: Betting Trends for the WM Phoenix Open

Thomas (+1400 via BetMGM)

This is a chalky pick, but Thomas’ game fits the mold of this course. Approach play is paramount, setting up chances on par-5s and the challenging par-4s that require precision second shots. 

Thomas has excellent TPC course history, winning at TPC Boston, Southwind, and last season at TPC Sawgrass en route to winning The Players. 

His iron play at the Farmers Insurance Open was elite over the first two rounds before stalling out over the weekend. His game continues to come together, and having veteran caddie Jim ‘Bones’ MacKay on his bag will expedite the process. 

Opportunities gained is a crucial statistic this week as birdies will be plentiful. Thomas ranks fourth in this category over his last 24 rounds on tour, with 23.9 strokes gained. 

Thomas has placed 17th, third, third, and 13th in his last four appearances here, reinforcing the notion of his impending success. - Anderson

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Phoenix Open Picks: Long Shots

Dahmen (+13000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

This number’s just too high for a player of Dahmen’s caliber coming off of a T-6 finish at Pebble Beach last week. His second top-10 result of the 2021-22 PGA Tour season got him back inside the top 100 of the OWGR after back-to-back missed cuts over the previous three weeks had dropped him to No. 106.

Dahmen has struggled in his previous trips to TPC Scottsdale, including a missed cut last year. His short game takes the blame, as he lost 1.17 strokes per round around the greens and 0.12 strokes per round with the flat stick over 36 holes. His putting has been improved this season, and he’s averaging 0.44 and 0.43 strokes gained: off-the-tee and on approach, respectively.

BetMGM is offering a market-low +8000 on Dahmen to win. Those odds seem closer to what they should be so the +13000 is excellent value. - McLaren

Bradley (+13000 via DraftKings)

Bradley is a four-time winner on Tour, and you cannot say that about many players who have odds over +10000. The last time he won was in 2018 at the BMW Championship, when he defeated Justin Rose in a playoff. He is currently 91st in the OWGR.

I am sure you have heard this before about Bradley, but if he could make a few putts, he could find himself in contention. This season, Bradley has averaged 1.18 SG: Tee-to-green. His driving and irons have been solid, but once again it is his putting that has disappointed him.

With a price of +13000, Bradley's profile on this course and current ball-striking statistics indicate that he is definitely worth a bet. Bradley has gained an average of 0.68 strokes per round in 36 rounds at TPC Scottsdale. Even with average putting, he might find himself in contention on Sunday. - Metler

Pereira (+12000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pereira quickly became golf bettors’ darling late last season and into the new year. However, he has yet to emerge victorious in his young PGA Tour career. 

We’ve seen him at much shorter odds previously, and we’re getting him at an exceptional number in this stacked field. This price is wild considering Pereira is one of 10 players in the field who ranks in the top 50 in SG: APP, OTT, and scrambling. 

Additionally, he has gained 2.5 strokes putting in his last four events, an anomaly. If Pereira continues gaining in all the above categories, it won’t be surprising to see his name atop the leaderboard come Sunday. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Top Phoenix Open Prop Picks

Phoenix Open Picks: Top Matchups

Hovland (+102) vs. Cantlay (via FanDuel)

This prop is available at most of our top sportsbooks, but FanDuel is the only one offering the slight boost of the +102 odds compared to the even-money returns in most other spots.

Hovland’s two rounds played at TPC Scottsdale in a missed cut in 2020 still give him the experience edge over Cantlay this week. The young Norwegian also comes into the tournament ranked one spot ahead of the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year in the OWGR. He has three victories in his last five tournaments, including the Hero World Challenge and the DP World Tour’s Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic.

The usually stoic Cantlay could be phased in his first appearance at The People’s Open. Hovland and his superior irons and driver seem like the perfect match for this atmosphere. - McLaren

Finau (-110) vs. Koepka (via DraftKings)

Although Koepka is the defending champion at the WM Phoenix Open, I will continue to fade him until further notice. Koepka is currently out of form and is not the same player he was at this time last year. He is losing 0.24 strokes per round from tee to green this season. This is quite a change from last season, when he averaged 1.46 strokes gained in that area.

Finau, on the other hand, is averaging SG: Tee-to-green this season. On the surface, the matchup appears equal, but when recent form is taken into consideration, Finau has a clear advantage.

Koepka and Finau both have strong track records in this event. However, Koepka may struggle even to make the cut this week, while Finau has the potential to win the entire tournament based on their current form. Rather than focusing on the brand name bias, I am looking at the statistics as they stand. In a matchup, these two should not be paired against one another. Therefore, I am backing the -110 on Finau and believe it to be of tremendous value. - Metler

Thomas (+125) vs. Rahm (via DraftKings)

Betting against Rahm is not ideal, but this is a corollary play for me as I expect Thomas to reign supreme. 

Rahm has excellent course history – shocking, right? He has never finished worse than 16th, topping out at fifth in his debut in 2015.

Thomas was fifth entering the final round at this event last season, proving emotional as his grandfather passed away the night before.

I’m expecting Thomas to take care of unfinished business, capitalizing on his natural course fit and playing off past emotion. Rahm will surely be in the mix, but I believe Thomas is a slightly better course fit due to the reasons above. - Anderson

Phoenix Open Picks: Top Props

Nearest to the 16th pin (Round 1): Gary Woodland (+205 via FanDuel)

FanDuel is offering a fun prop for one of the most famous holes in golf, by turning it into a closest to the pin contest for several of Thursday’s marquee groups. Woodland is grouped with Abraham Ancer and Koepka, and he’s drawing inflated odds while up against the defending champ.

Woodland won this tournament in a playoff in 2018. He tied for 40th in 2020 and missed the cut last year, but he’s still averaging 1.16 total strokes gained over 42 career rounds at TPC Scottsdale. All three players are struggling with their usually sharp irons this season, but Woodland actually holds a slight edge at 0.10 SG: Approach per round.

The former U.S. Open champ was also a part of one of the most famous moments at the 16th hole, so we can expect his best each time in front of the crowd. - McLaren

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Top Canadian: Corey Conners (+110 via DraftKings)

The 2019 Valero Texas Open champion will be playing in his third Phoenix Open. Conners lost 0.73 strokes per round with the putter during his first visit to TPC Scottsdale. When he returned last season, it was encouraging to see how he improved on this statistic. Conners gained 0.09 strokes per round with the flat stick.

Conners is a good fit for a golf course like TPC Scottsdale that caters to ball strikers. This season, he is averaging 1.15 SG: Tee-to-green, and his game has always been built around his ball striking. Players with Conners' profile, who have previously enjoyed success on the greens they are playing that given week, require immediate consideration in your handicap.

The price of +110 appears to be pretty short, but it is essential to remember that there are only four Canadians in the field this week. There were eight Canadians in the field at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. The Canadian group has always been dominated by Conners, but this is one of the few tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule where the course suits him better than any of the others. Adam Hadwin has had previous success in this event, but I believe Conners' game will allow him to go much lower than Hadwin is ever going to be able to. - Metler

Keith Mitchell top-40 finish (+160 via FanDuel)

Strokes gained off the tee is another critical metric at the WMPO, and Mitchell ranks eighth in the category this season.

He comes into the event in terrific form, finishing seventh and 12th in two of his previous three events. His course history here isn’t outstanding, but he has vastly improved his play in the past year with five top-10 finishes since the beginning of 2021. 

His approach play last weekend at Pebble Beach was solid, and if he can sustain that, it will supplement his magical driving ability and allow him to stay in the top 40, if not contend. - Anderson

Fade

Cantlay

We’ll take it a step further with a total fade of last year’s FedEx Cup winner. Cantlay’s leading the PGA Tour with 2.57 total strokes gained per round this season, but through just eight measured rounds. He has started 2022 with three straight top–10 finishes, however, this will be the strongest field he has competed against this calendar year. He’s also averaging a modest 0.22 SG: Approach per round, and his irons will need to be sharp in his first stop at TPC Scottsdale.

Course history also generally means less for the top players in the world than it does for those lower in the rankings. However, the Phoenix Open is more about "event history" than the course itself. Cantlay’s career-best season came with largely tempered crowd sizes in 2021, but the stands will be packed and rowdy ahead of the 2022 Super Bowl. - McLaren

Webb Simpson

Simpson ruined my Super Bowl Sunday at the 2020 Phoenix Open when he defeated my +5000 ticket on Tony Finau in a playoff. Simpson was actually in danger of missing the cut prior to winning the 2020 event until he caught fire on Friday's back nine.

Having won in 2020, Simpson is currently priced at +3500 to win. This price does not reflect the current state of his game, in my opinion. Additionally, this field is stacked with star power and contains 15 of the top 20 golfers in the world.

Simpson gained an average of 3.46 total strokes per round at this event in 2020. This season, Simpson is averaging only 0.83 strokes gained per round. At a price of +3500, I would prefer a golfer who is in much better form than Simpson in this field. - Metler

Koepka

Fading the two-time champion of this event with Koepka’s pedigree is going to be a bad idea more often than not, but he’s been in awful form. 

In his last five starts, he missed the cut three times and didn’t sniff victory in the condensed fields of the Sentry TOC and Hero World Challenge. 

He does enjoy showing up in big moments and can turn his game around quickly, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility he flashes brilliance. Still, I would take a wait-and-see approach for anyone thinking of backing him in this spot. Jump in live if he starts building momentum. - Anderson

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