WM Phoenix Open Picks: Matchups and Props as PGA Tour Hits TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, AZ, will play host to this week's WM Phoenix Open on the PGA Tour. Brooks Koepka will be defending his title, and we have selected our favorite Phoenix Open tournament matchups and prop picks.

Unlike the previous three PGA Tour events, this week's competition will take place on only one golf course. The WM Phoenix Open is always a highly anticipated event leading up to the Super Bowl.

During the final round of last year's tournament at TPC Scottsdale, Koepka chipped in for eagle on the driveable par-4 17th hole. The dramatic finish gave Koepka his eighth PGA Tour victory and his second at the Phoenix Open.

With the famous 16th hole preparing for a party, we offer some of the top matchups and prop selections for this year’s edition of The People’s Open (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

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Phoenix Open Matchup Picks

Russell Henley vs. Sam Burns (-110)

I will be looking to back as many Burns props as I can this week. This will begin with this matchup against Henley. Burns will be included in my portfolio of outright winners this week.

Why am I so excited about Burns at TPC Scottsdale? In last year's Phoenix Open, he led the field with 2.72 strokes gained: putting per round. It was poor driving that resulted in him finishing T-22.

Burns rarely struggles with his driver, and he's averaging 0.62 SG: Off-the-tee for the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. If he is able to putt half as well as he did last year, he will be a serious contender to win the tournament on Sunday.

Due to his elite iron play, Henley also profiles well on this course; however, Burns' putting ability at TPC Scottsdale is what separates him from Henley in this matchup.

I am backing Burns wherever possible at the Phoenix Open and the even odds in this matchup are a good start.

Patrick Cantlay vs. Viktor Hovland (+100)

Like Burns, I am backing Hovland in a matchup as I will also be betting on him to win the tournament. In addition to my enthusiasm for Hovland this week, SBR golf expert Esten McLaren is also picking him as his outright winner.

Hovland is one of the world's premier iron players and TPC Scottsdale is designed as a second-shot golf course. How effective has Hovland been this season in SG: Approach? Currently, he is ranked higher in this statistic than tournament favorites Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, and Collin Morikawa, who ranks second in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

No doubt, the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year, Patrick Cantlay, will be difficult to defeat. However, the WM Phoenix Open is not a typical stop on his schedule. Cantlay will actually be playing in the People's Open for the first time. With such a party atmosphere, perhaps he will down one or two too many Mai Tais before teeing off on Thursday.

SEE ALSO: Betting Trends for the WM Phoenix Open

Pat Perez vs. Keegan Bradley (+100)

Perez finished T-6 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T-9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his last two events. He will compete in his fourth tournament in as many weeks, so fatigue may be a factor.

Perez has participated in the WM Phoenix Open only once in the past five years. Last year was his only trip, and he did not make the cut.

Due to how both Bradley and Perez profile at TPC Scottsdale, I believe the wrong golfer is favored for this matchup. In my opinion, Bradley is catching +100 because his recent form has not been as strong as Perez. However, I like how Bradley's ball-striking will play at TPC Scottsdale.

Perez failed to make the cut at last year's Phoenix Open, and Bradley shot a minus-11 over four rounds to finish T-22.

Along with playing Bradley in this +100 matchup against Perez, I am also betting on Bradley as a +13000 long shot to win the Phoenix Open.

Hideki Matsuyama vs. Jordan Spieth (+130)

Jordan Spieth of the United States plays his second shot on the eighth hole during the third round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images via AFP.

Spieth narrowly avoided falling off a cliff on his way to a second-place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What was most encouraging about his performance last week was that he gained strokes on the field in every category.

In the Phoenix Open last year, Spieth gained strokes in every category except SG: Off-the-tee. With a T-4 finish, he had golf fans around the globe very excited about a possible return to form.

Spieth averaged 0.63 SG: Off-the-tee at Pebble Beach Golf Links this past week. He has a very strong chance of finishing on the first page of the leaderboard if he is able to bring that same driver to TPC Scottsdale.

I would not be interested in betting on Spieth if the price were -110 each way. Aside from his performance last week, it is the +130 price point that has me interested in this wager. My opinion is that the odds in this matchup are off, and that is something I intend to exploit.

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Phoenix Open Prop Picks

To Miss the Cut: Brooks Koepka (+175)

In golf betting, picking someone to miss the cut who won the tournament the previous year is typically not a good strategy. Generally, you are looking for golfers with a strong course history who fit the profile of the golf course.

In reality, Koepka's current form is not good and he is losing strokes to the field. This is not the same player who won last year's Phoenix Open. Can he find his form on a golf course where he has already won twice? This is possible, though he has not shown any signs of this in his recent performances.

Koepka is being priced like he is still among the elite players on the PGA Tour. He has the same SG: Tee-to-green statistic as Scott Stallings this season. Yet Koepka's priced to win as if he is on equal footing with someone like Tony Finau, who is also +175 to miss the cut.

It is my intention to fade Koepka at every tournament until he shows signs of improvement and returns to his previous form.

Top 20: Max Homa (+260)

As the Phoenix Open is known as the People's Open, no PGA Tour player can ride that energy like Homa. He is known for his interaction with fans on Twitter and for his humorous analysis of amateur golf swings.

Therefore, it is only appropriate that Homa has a strong course history at The People's Open. He has averaged 1.56 strokes gained per round across 12 rounds at TPC Scottsdale. In 2020, he tied for sixth in a career-best finish at the event.

This week's field is filled with a number of prestigious players, making it difficult to back Homa as an outright winner. For a golfer with his skillset, a top 20 finish is more appropriate and that is how I will be backing him this week.

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SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Phoenix Open Prop Picks made 2/8/2022 at 4:18 p.m. ET.