WM Phoenix Open Picks and Preview: PGA Tour Sets Table for Super Bowl Week

One of the most popular events on the PGA Tour schedule annually serves as the sports bettor’s appetizer for the Super Bowl. We preview the 2022 Phoenix Open with our top picks to win.

Fifteen of the top 20 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are at TPC Scottsdale this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. World No. 1 Jon Rahm headlines the strong contingent at one of the PGA Tour’s marquee events. Brooks Koepka returns to defend his 2021 title having slipped to No. 20 in the OWGR. That’s his worst ranking since he won the 2017 U.S. Open.

This tournament regularly wraps up shortly before the kickoff of the Super Bowl. It’s an excellent way to boost your bankroll ahead of the big game as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Here are my top outright picks for the PGA Tour’s WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, AZ.

Phoenix Open Odds

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Phoenix Open Odds Analysis

Rahm is the heavy favorite for the third time in the last four weeks, this time with an implied win probability ranging from 11.76% to 14.29% at DraftKings Sportsbook. His T-14 finish at The American Express and T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open should serve as a warning of the risk of the low payout, especially in a loaded field such as this.

Based on world ranking, the value play is No. 12 Louis Oosthuizen. He’s seventh in this field by the OWGR but his odds range from +3500 at DraftKings to +4100 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, Koepka’s odds range from +2700 at FanDuel to +3000 at other books. Despite his recent struggles, the defending champ is sure to be heavily bet this week with the added eyes on golf.

Odds are suppressed across the board for Henley. He enters the week at No. 40 in the OWGR but has an implied win probability as high as 3.23% at DraftKings. In a potential error highlighting the importance of shopping around, Harris English was priced at +800 at PointsBet through Monday, while he was +5500 to +6600 at other books. He was adjusted to +6600 at PointsBet by Tuesday morning.

SEE ALSO: Betting Trends for the WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale Course Profile

At long last, we’re back to a single-course format this week. The Jay Morrish- and Tom Weiskopf-designed Stadium Course in Scottsdale has hosted this event every year since 1987. The par-71 TPC Scottsdale plays to 7,261 yards under tournament conditions. The greens are composed of Bermudagrass, and the fairways and putting surfaces both play exceptionally firm and fast.

Of the 11 par 4s, five range from 400 to 450 yards and five from 450 to 500 yards. One of the four par 3s tops 200 yards. All three par 5s are at least 550 yards.

Because of the free length added by the fairways, long hitters haven’t had much of an added advantage at TPC Scottsdale. Instead, focus on accuracy off the tee, and our usual emphasis on approach shots.

The most famous hole, of course, is the 163-yard, par-3 16th. It played to even par last year and didn't feature a single ace.

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Phoenix Open Stats

Our key stats for the Phoenix Open are:

Strokes gained: approachSG: off-the-teePar 4 efficiency: 400-450 yardsPar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsSand-save percentageBirdie-or-better percentage

Each of the last five winners of this event finished at least 17-under par, but no one has finished minus-20 or better since Phil Mickelson’s tournament record of minus-28 in a four-stroke victory in 2013. The 2021 scoring average was 69.455 with 11 holes playing below par, as Koepka won by a single stroke at minus-19.

Branden Grace and Oosthuizen rank 1 and 2 in the field with 2.82 and 2.63 total strokes gained per round, respectively, at TPC Scottsdale, each with eight rounds played. Matsuyama, a two-time winner on the outskirts of Phoenix, is averaging 2.55 strokes gained over his 29 career rounds played in this event.

Just 17 members of this year’s field are making their tournament debut this week. Included in that group are PGA Tour winners Cantlay, Garrick Higgo, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Scott, as well as Matt Fitzpatrick and Mito Pereira.

Phoenix Open Picks

Viktor Hovland (+1600 viaCaesars Sportsbook)Louis Oosthuizen (+4100 via FanDuel)Mito Pereira (+12500 via PointsBet)

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Prop Bets

Phoenix Open Outrights

Hovland (+1600)

Hovland will play in the continental U.S. for the first time since The CJ Cup in mid-October. Since that time, he has three international victories and a T-4 finish in Abu Dhabi to soar to No. 3 in the OWGR. He's recorded six worldwide victories, two runner-up finishes, two third-place showings, and four other top-10 results against just four missed cuts since the beginning of the 2020 calendar year. He has just one missed cut across 29 events since the beginning of 2021.

He'll now make just his second appearance at TPC Scottsdale after a missed cut in 2020. He averaged 0.83 SG: off-the-tee over his 36 holes, but he lost strokes on and around the greens. Entering this week, he's seventh in the world with 2.01 total strokes gained per round across 20 measured rounds, including 0.44 SG: putting per round.

The young Norwegian is also third in par 4 efficiency: 400-450 yards, T-2 in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, and third in birdie-or-better percentage. He's truly deserving of being the third-ranked player in the world, and we're getting some value with Rahm being so heavily favored at the top.

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Oosthuizen (+4100)

Oosthuizen's coming off his customary winter slumber to play his first event since withdrawing from The RSM Classic in November. He enters this week at No. 12 in the OWGR after rising as high as No. 7 last summer.

The Tour veteran isn't overly experienced at TPC Scottsdale, but he's had strong results in the limited sample. He finished third in 2017 while ranking fifth in the field in SG: tee-to-green, and he gained strokes in every other key area. He's played just nine measured rounds on the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, but he tied for third with Cantlay in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards over 81 rounds last season, and he was 16th in sand-save percentage.

The 39-year-old showed he can still regularly contend in these elite fields with finishes of T-2, second, and T-3 at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and Open Championship, respectively, last year.

SEE ALSO: Phoenix Open Matchups and Props

Pereira (+12500)

Pereira's among the few making his debut at TPC Scottsdale this week, but he's a strong course fit with 0.31 SG: off-the-tee, 0.76 SG: approach, and 0.30 SG: putting per round through 23 measured rounds this season. He enters the week at No. 100 in the OWGR after peaking at No. 82 with a third-place showing at the Fortinet Championship in the fall.

Pereira missed the cut last week with strokes lost with his driver and irons, though he gained 2.63 strokes per round with his putter. He can putt his way to victory at this venue with little danger from tee to green.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 2/7/2022 at 9:00 p.m. ET.