Players Championship Picks, Predictions 2023: McIlroy, Rahm, Scheffler Continue Battle as Favorites

The best field in golf descends on TPC Sawgrass this week as we offer up our best Players Championship picks and predictions.

After world No. 1 Jon Rahm's humbling T-39 finish and Kurt Kitayama's breakthrough PGA Tour win during last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, the field for The Players Championship seems wide open for the first time in what feels like forever.

Though the luster may not be quite the same after we've had three elevated PGA Tour events over the last four weeks, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL is still the Tour's crown jewel and carries a record $4.5 million first-place check and $25 million prize purse. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, ranked Nos. 3 and 2 respectively in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), lead those looking to knock off Kitayama and keep Rahm without a win for a second straight week.

Check out our top Players Championship picks and predictions as we preview the tournament and assess The Players Championship odds from our best sportsbooks.

Players Championship picks to win

• Collin Morikawa (+2800 via FanDuel - now +2500 via BetMGM)
• Tom Kim (+4100 via FanDuel - now +4000)
• Corey Conners (+6600 via BetMGM - now +6000 via PointsBet)

Players Championship odds 2023

Check out our look at the Masters odds, PGA Championship odds, U.S. Open odds, and Open Championship odds.

Players Championship field

The 2023 Players Championship field was released Friday, March 3, and while former champion Tiger Woods is not present, the talent pool remains loaded with 43 of the top 50 golfers from the OWGR.

The most notable absence, obviously, is world No. 5 and reigning Players Championship winner Cameron Smith who joined the LIV Golf Invitational Series late last summer. Still, there are eight former champions of this event vying for the 2023 Players Championship title.

The 144-man field also consists of 49 of the top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings following the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That list, like most others, is fronted by Rahm. Kitayama moved up to No. 6 in the season-long points race with his inaugural PGA Tour win last week.

Check out the full Players Championship field eligibility breakdown here.

TPC Sawgrass course profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,275
Greens: Bermuda
Architect: Pete Dye  

A relatively short par-72 course by today's PGA Tour standards, TPC Sawgrass is best known for not catering to any one style of golfer. Accuracy off the tee is a pre-requisite; not necessarily for staying in the narrow fairways, but for setting up the best possible second shot.

Elite iron play is a must-have and the tiered Bermuda greens must be deftly navigated. The putting surfaces are over-seeded with blends of Poa Annua and Bentgrass, making them unlike the greens seen through the first two events of the PGA Tour's Florida swing.

Water is a hazard on all but one hole, not just the famed island-green 17th. Sand bunkers litter the course and also help force golfers to carefully select their landing spots and angles into the greens that are surrounded by trouble.

Even amid last year's rain-delayed Monday finish of The Players Championship, Smith's winning score of minus-13 wasn't out of the ordinary. Three other golfers finished with a 72-hole score of at least 10-under par though no one in the field scored in the 60s in all four rounds as just six holes played under par. The easiest holes were the four par 5s, with two of the three par 4s shorter than 400 yards also playing below par.

No. 17, as usual, was among the most difficult holes on the course with a scoring average of 3.267 with just one ace and 44 scores of double or worse.

Players Championship key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• Good drive percentage
• Driving accuracy
• Proximity: 125-150 yards
• Bogey avoidance
• Scrambling
• Par-5 birdie-or-better percentage

The No. 1 goal at TPC Sawgrass is to avoid the trouble. As such, bogey avoidance needs to be considered over birdie-or-better percentage, and scrambling is a key statistic for all of those who inevitably find the water or other trouble.

As noted in our course profile, scoring must be done on the par 5s with only two other holes surrendering a subpar scoring average in 2022. Outside of the par 5s, distance off the tee is not a requirement for success so we'll look to the better rounded good drive percentage metric, with consideration for driving accuracy.

Players Championship picks and predictions

Collin Morikawa (+2500 via BetMGM)

These elevated events on the PGA Tour are all about finding outlier value for top-ranked golfers and I'm putting my money on the two-time major winner to end his nearly-two-year winless drought on the PGA Tour at a venue he should dominate. We were able to invest in Morikawa at +2800 via FanDuel on the early odds but I'm still fine with BetMGM's +2500 odds as I'd play the 10th-ranked golfer in the world down to +2000 at any other sportsbook.

Though Morikawa finished T-41 at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and missed the cut in last year's weather-derailed event, that's only helping to prop up the odds to a level we should never see for the 26-year-old, in any field. Across his last 12 rounds, Morikawa is averaging 1.05 true strokes gained: approach per round, to go with 1.90 SG: tee-to-green, and he ranks third among qualified golfers in this field in driving accuracy in that time.

Morikawa is also ninth for the 2022-23 PGA Tour season in SG: approach, eighth in good drive percentage, third in driving accuracy, and fifth in par-5 birdie-or-better percentage.

While Morikawa missed the cut last week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, he tied for sixth against essentially the same field in his previous event at The Genesis Invitational. The drought ends on Sunday at one of the PGA Tour's wettest venues as Morikawa to win tops my Players Championship best bets.

Tom Kim (+4000)

Kim will make his professional debut at TPC Sawgrass at just 20 years old but already a two-time winner on golf's top circuit. The South Korean phenom slipped back to No. 17 in the OWGR with a T-34 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week but he has still made the cut in five of his six events to begin 2023.

Kim is accurate off the tee and an elite ball striker who is gaining strokes per round in all key metrics across his last 12 measured rounds. Though he struggled on and around the greens last week, I project a better performance on the slower greens at TPC Sawgrass. He's also fourth in bogey avoidance and 10th in scrambling this season.

I thought I was getting value with my +3600 ticket on Kim in mid-January but I'll double-down at these higher odds now that we're in the week of the event.

Corey Conners (+6000 via PointsBet)

Conners used his 0.91 SG: approach per round last week at Bay Hill to claim a T-21 finish. He was in the thick of contention following the second round before a Saturday round of plus-3, 75.

The Canadian played in the last three full runnings of The Players Championship (the 2020 tournament was canceled amid COVID-19) and has finishes of T-41, seventh, and T-26, respectively. Last year, he gained strokes in all key metrics, including 0.49 SG: approach per round.

Conners' odds to win The Players Championship are dropping across the board and are as low as +5000 via Caesars. Adequate value remains in this +6000 via PointsBet for our Players Championship sleeper pick, but I wouldn't make this bet if the odds drop any more.

Players Championship futures bets

• Will Zalatoris (+3600 via FanDuel) - Jan. 2, 2023
• Tony Finau (+4000 via PointsBet) - Jan. 19, 2023
• Tom Kim (+3600 via FanDuel) - Jan. 19, 2023
• Rory McIlroy (+1500 via FanDuel) - Jan. 29, 2023
• Max Homa (+2900 via FanDuel) - Feb. 20, 2023
• Jon Rahm (+750 via PointsBet) - March 3, 2023

Players Championship power rankings

Players Championship power rankings by Neil Parker.

10. Viktor Hovland

Hovland played in the final group Sunday at Bay Hill, and he hasn’t missed a cut in 12 events while carding a confidence-inspiring 10 top-25 finishes. He ranks fifth in true SG: off-the-tee and 18th in true SG: approach in this field across his past 18 measured rounds and also carded a -7 over the weekend to finish T-9 here last year. 

9. Matt Fitzpatrick

There were signs of the complete game finally coming together for Fitzpatrick last week during the API. His ball-striking was elite through the first two days, and then his short game was just as solid during Round 4. It all added up to a respectable T-14 showing, and it was his best result since playing through a neck injury. Fitzpatrick is trending in the right direction.

8. Collin Morikawa

I can’t decide if it’s been a frustrating season for Morikawa or not. He’s carded runner-up, solo third, and T-6 showings alongside two missed cuts in 2023, and yet I’m left wondering why he can’t completely capitalize on his accuracy off the tee and elite iron play. He doesn’t even need to be a short-game wiz to cash in.

7. Jon Rahm

Even the best go through peaks and valleys, and Rahm uncharacteristically struggled and lost strokes off the tee at Bay Hill last week. I expect him to have a sixth consecutive solid showing at TPC Sawgrass, but being out of position at this track will put squares on the scorecard in a hurry. Plus, he’s topped out with a T-9 finish here during the 2021 event.

6. Justin Thomas

If you haven’t seen the onslaught of advertisements, Thomas won here in 2021. He’s also never missed playing on the weekend. Add five consecutive top-25 finishes in the new year, and he’s knocking on the door. His putting is also trending in the right direction with strokes gained on the greens in four consecutive events. I think Thomas is going to fly slightly under the radar, too.

5. Max Homa

A T-14 wasn’t the result Homa and his backers were looking for at Bay Hill last week, especially considering he paced the field in SG: approach. Like many, poor play on and around the tough greens took its toll. I’m still viewing Homa as a legitimate threat to win every time he tees it, and his success over the past year rightfully positions him as a second-tier favorite to win this week at the Stadium Course. 

4. Jason Day

Day made it four consecutive top-10 finishes – all in loaded fields – with his T-10 result at the API last week. He won here in 2016 and also has another three top-10 finishes on his resume, so I’m anticipating Day to play well again at TPC Sawgrass this week. He also ranks 11th in true SG: tee-to-green and first in SG: putting in this field across his past 17 measured rounds.

3. Scottie Scheffler

I’m a bit baffled by Scheffler. His worst finish through five starts in 2023 is a T-12 at The Genesis, and he isn’t even rolling it well. He’s gained just .014 strokes per round this season after posting a 58th-ranked .202 mark last year. When a few more putts start finding the bottom of the cup, Scheffler is going to be next to impossible to top. Just note, his track record at this track stinks with last year’s T-55 following a missed cut in 2021.

2. Rory McIlroy

It's been tough to handicap McIlroy lately, and his track record at TPC Sawgrass showcases a true mixed bag of results. He won here in 2019, and he also showed statistical correction with his putter last week at Bay Hill while also finishing fifth in SG: tee-to-green. Add four worldwide wins across his past 16 events, and oddsmakers have McIlroy probably priced as a top favorite to win.

1. Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay enters with consecutive top-five finishes, and his ball-striking consistency and well-rounded statistical profile are going to make him a popular target for punters and poolies. The eight-time PGA Tour winner ranked third in SG:tee-to-green last week at Bay Hill, and he ranks fifth in true SG: tee-to-green across his past 124 measured rounds over the past two years. It’s Cantlay’s turn at the 2023 Players.

Players Championship expert picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks made by Neil Parker and Shane Jackson.

Players Championship picks to win

Jon Rahm (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

There have already been four elevated events this season, and the best closing odds for Rahm in all four have been between +650 and +750. I view the widely available +1100 number for The Players Championship as an overreaction to him finishing T-39 at last week’s API, and as a result, we’re landing rare sprint-to-the-window value. 

Rahm’s undoing last week was from the tee box at Bay Hill. I’m confident in a prompt return to form considering he ranks first in true SG: off-the-tee in this field over the past two years (150 measured rounds). In fact, there isn’t a statistical weakness to be found with ranks of third in SG: tee-to-green, seventh in SG: putting, and 22nd in SG: around-the-green this season.

While I typically target longer odds, value is value, and I consider Rahm the best player in this field. Additionally, with Caesars hanging a more appropriate +750 price, we’re landing a positive expected value of 48% with the +1100 number through DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet. - Parker

Will Zalatoris (+3500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Finding value in the golf outright market this late in the week can be pretty difficult, but that’s especially true for marquee golf events. It's up to us to find the best numbers after many prices have been nuked by the market.

That has led us to Zalatoris, who was the most popular outright pick during last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished 53rd. Much of his low finish was the result of losing over three strokes on the greens, which can certainly flip back in his favor this week. He gained over two strokes with his putter during a fourth-place finish in his previous event, for example. 

Zalatoris tends to thrive with these tougher courses, as evidenced by his T-26 finish here last year and a 21st-place finish in 2021. This 35/1 price tag from DraftKings is right in line with where Zalatoris has been valued in this market since it opened, so we will scoop it up before this tourney begins. - Jackson

Players Championship long-shot picks

Harris English (+10000 via FanDuel) ⭐

Admittedly, this is a true long shot. English doesn’t sport sustained statistical form or check the course-history box.

Still, the 12-year vet casually coasted to a T-2 finish at Bay Hill last week, and he also fired a smooth 65 in Round 1 of the canceled 2020 Players. I’m particularly drawn to his top-ranked driving accuracy and SG: putting at the API because hitting fairways and putting well will serve well at any track. Diving even deeper, English also finished fourth in SG: approach while paired with Rory McIlroy during Sunday’s final round – that’s calm, cool and collected.

There’s also a wide range of odds available for English. He’s trading as low as +7000 through Caesars, which gives the +10000 price via FanDuel a positive expected value of 41%. Additionally, I’d recommend pairing this outright with a finishing-position wager. FanDuel is listing English at +410 to card a top-20 finish and +120 to post a top-40 result, which are both quite generous. - Parker

Shane Lowry (+5000 via DraftKings) ⭐

The thing about putting together a golf card is that you might end up rolling with a few of the same names a couple weeks in a row. If you had reasoning for betting a golfer outright at one event, it is only logical that he might make the list again the following week.

That is the case for Shane Lowry, who was my long shot last week and claims that title once again. Lowry was in the mix through the first two rounds at last week’s API, but struggled with the wind during Saturday’s 80. He bounced back on a pressure-free Sunday to finish 67th, but that just keeps him a bit under the radar headed to TPC Sawgrass.

Lowry has fared well in this tournament, posting a T-13 last year and an eight-place finish in 2021. Lowry ranks 11th in strokes gained: approach over the last 50 rounds in this field, which is critical to success here. You can get a 50/1 outright on Lowry at four of our five best sportsbooks, as long as you avoid his 40/1 at Caesars. - Jackson

Players Championship prop picks

Francesco Molinari Top 40 (+160 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Molinari was right up there on the list of golfers I didn’t expect to bet in 2023, but here we are with a nice return for him to card a top-40 finish. The Italian has been beyond inconsistent since his dominant, two-year run across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but a couple of things have my attention heading into this year’s Players Championship.

First, Molinari was solid last week at Bay Hill. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and on the greens en route to a T-14 finish. Secondly, this will be his 13th trip to TPC Sawgrass. Like most, Molinari’s course history at the track has been as consistent as the gusting winds over the 17th green, but he’s carded four top-10 results – including in three consecutive years from 2014 through 2016.

TPC Sawgrass is a unique tee-to-green test, and I’m expecting Molinari to successfully navigate the Stadium Course this week after showing well at Bay Hill. The +160 odds via DraftKings also provide a positive expected value of 15% compared to the +125 number through FanDuel to add a nice edge to this recommendation. - Parker

Tom Kim to finish top 10 (+470 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

According to GolfTipsChecker on Twitter, Kim is the second-most tipped outright golfer for The Players this week. Kim winning this event against this field as a debutant seems unlikely, but his game should translate to success here.

Kim ranks fourth in strokes gained: approach in this field over the last 50 measured rounds. He also already has two PGA Tour wins under his belt, and has made five of six cuts since the calendar flipped to 2023. Though he hasn’t finished higher than 34th since Jan. 22, there is reason to believe Kim will be in the mix come Sunday.

FanDuel is offering an enticing +470 value on Kim to finish inside the top 10 this weekend. As long as you avoid DraftKings’ price of +360, you are getting the best deal on my favorite play of the weekend. - Jackson

Players Championship info

When: Thursday, March 9 - Sunday, March 12
Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
How to watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+, NBC, Peacock

Recent Players Championship winners

How to watch The Players Championship

The Players Championship will be broadcast by Golf Channel and NBC. The tournament can be streamed on PGA Tour Live and ESPN+.

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