U.S. Open First-Round Leader Odds & Predictions: Who'll Lead After Round 1 at Oakmont?
The 2025 U.S. Open began today at 6:45 a.m. ET at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania as the first threesomes went off the first and 10th tees simultaneously.
The weather in Oakmont isn't expected to be a major factor for either the morning or afternoon wave as we make our U.S. Open first-round leader predictions. Conditions will be hot, firm, and fast throughout the day.
⏰ See the full U.S. Open tee times here.
📊 U.S. Open first-round leader odds
The 2025 PGA Championship first-round leader odds are from our best golf betting sites and update in real time. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in this market with +1200 odds representing an implied win probability of 7.69% and returning a profit of $120 on a winning $10 bet.
Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay during Round 1.
💰 U.S. Open 18-hole leader predictions
As part of our golf picks for 2025's third major, here are my favorite U.S. Open first-round leader predictions for Thursday at Oakmont Country Club. Use our player prop odds tool to get the latest and best odds for the golfer(s) of your choice.
🏌️ Keegan Bradley
👉 Best odds: +6600 via BetMGM ($10 pays $660)
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Bradley will play off the first tee Thursday morning at 7:18 a.m. ET in a group with Harris English and Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood is a second-tier contender by the U.S. Open odds, while Bradley and Harris are both considered long shots.
The captain of the U.S. Ryder Cup team is 41st in Round 1 scoring average on the PGA Tour this season. He has a strong short game, sharp irons, and is a consistently accurate driver.
I don't expect Thursday's leader to go low, but instead play it safe while battling the hostile Oakmont conditions. Bradley's experience will give him an edge and can help turn a winning $10 bet into a $660 profit.
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open projected cut line
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open matchup picks
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
🏌️ Cameron Young
👉 Best odds: +8000 via BetRivers ($10 pays $800)
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Young came oh-so-close yet again in last week's Canadian Open. The 28-year-old is still looking for his career PGA Tour win. Though he may not find it in a major championship where he has a best finish of T-32 from two years ago, last week's disappointment is likely to fuel a strong start on Thursday.
He'll tee off Thursday at 1:36 p.m. ET, and that may be helping to boost these odds. Young's been riding a hot putter and is one of the better bets to navigate the greens during Round 1 before they're lost for the weekend.
By comparison, BetMGM's +6600 odds would return $140 less on a winning $10 bet.
🏌️ Thorbjorn Olesen
👉 Best odds: +12500 via BetMGM ($10 pays $1,250)
Olesen ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average for the 2025 season, and he tees off at 8:35 a.m. ET on Thursday.
The Danish golfer enters the week at No. 83 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and has made six straight cuts with a top finish of T-7 in the Myrtle Beach Classic.
🤖 AI first-round leader prediction
I asked a ChatGPT, a popular large language model chatbot, for its best U.S. Open first-round leader prediction. Please note that ChatGPT isn't an experienced sports bettor but can provide information and insights to help inform decisions.
"Based on current tee times, typical scoring trends, and historical course familiarity, ChatGPT's top pick for the 2025 U.S. Open first-round leader at Oakmont is Justin Rose (+10000 via BetRivers)."
✔️ Why Rose leads the pack:
- Oakmont pedigree: 2013 U.S. Open champion with strong experience in major test setups
- Masters first-round history: Led Round 1 at Augusta twice - proven fast-starters in grueling conditions
- Solid early tee time: Drawn in the morning wave (7:40 a.m. ET), when course conditions are typically softer and scores lower
- Odds show value: At 80‑1, Rose is well-represented among top long-shots, with standout position in expert picks
👀 U.S. Open first-round leader betting insights
Here is how the betting action is coming in on the U.S. Open first-round leader market at BetMGM:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (10.6) | Scottie Scheffler (15.3) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Bryson DeChambeau (6.5) | Keegan Bradley (10.0) | Chris Gotterup |
| Shane Lowry (4.8) | Tyrrell Hatton (9.6) | Keegan Bradley |
“A US Open at Oakmont is one of the toughest tests these players will face. BetMGM customers are leaning towards the proven quality in the field with Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau becoming significant liabilities.
In what could be his last attempt at the career grand slam, Phil Mickelson has also been very well supported and Lefty will definitely be one we want to avoid. Our “Without Scottie Scheffler” market is proving very popular as BetMGM customers look to insure against another dominant performance from the world's number 1.” – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
🌤️ Thursday's weather at Oakmont Country Club
The weather for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club is expected to be favorable, particularly on Thursday, June 12, when the tournament begins.
Thursday forecast
- Conditions: Hazy sunshine
- Temperature: 86 degrees
- Wind: 6.8 mph (gusts up to 20 mph)
- Precipitation: No significant rain expected
Hot and dry weather in Oakmont, Pa., will have the course playing even more firm and fast than it's already tailored to be by the USGA. I'm slightly favoring Thursday's morning wave for my first-round leader predictions as the greens could quickly become tough to tame.
🏌️♂️ What is a first-round leader (FRL) bet?
A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will have the lowest score after Round 1 of a golf tournament. You're betting on who will lead the field after 18 holes, not who will win the tournament.
🔢 How the odds work
Odds are typically presented in American format (+500, +1200, etc.) and reflect the potential payout.
Example:
- Scottie Scheffler +900 to be the first-round leader ➤ Bet $10 to win $90 profit ($100 total payout)
- Collin Morikawa +2500 ➤ Bet $10 to win $250 profit
📝 Example bet
Let’s say you bet $10 on Adam Scott at +5500 to be the FRL:
- If he finishes the day outright in first place, you win $550 profit
- If two or more players tie, most sportsbooks split the bet using dead-heat rules
⚠️ Dead heat rules: If Scott ties with 2 others for the lead, you’d win 1/3 of the payout
💭 What to consider when betting on the first-round leader
Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.
- Tee times
- Weather
- Course history
- Round 1 scoring average
- Recent form
- Key stats for the week
The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.
Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.
I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performances entering Thursday's first round.
🏅 How often has the first-round leader won the U.S. Open?
- Since 1969 (last 50 editions), only 10 first-round leaders have won the U.S. Open - that's a success rate of 20% from that sample
- More narrowly, since 1988, only 6 winners in total were leading after Round 1 :
- Martin Kaymer (2014)
- Rory McIlroy (2011)
- Tiger Woods (2000, 2002)
- Retief Goosen (2001)
- Payne Stewart (1991)
- Tony Jacklin (1970, though a bit outside the range)
🏌️♂️ Who was the leader after Round 1 of last year's U.S. Open?
Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay shared the lead after Round 1 of last year's U.S. Open at 5-under following opening rounds of 65. They finished second and T-3, respectively.
Bryson DeChambeau, last year's winner, was 3-under - two strokes off the lead - after Round 1.
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S. Open
Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:
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