2024 U.S. Open Long-Shot Picks: Sleepers to Win at Pinehurst
Though the traditional U.S. Open conditions typically separate the best golfers in the world, several have used this tournament as a launching pad for further success, and we're looking for the next big thing with our U.S. Open long-shot picks and sleepers based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
A battle-tested U.S. Open field of 156 is at Pinehurst No. 2 in Moore County, N.C., for the third major of 2024 this week. As always, Scottie Scheffler is the consensus (and prohibitive) betting favorite by the U.S. Open odds.
For all but the top few names on the oddsboard hoping to best Scheffler on the leaderboard, they'll look to join 2023 U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark as a long-shot winner of the event. Clark won this tournament at odds of +10000 prior to Round 1 last year. His first career major win came little more than a month after his maiden PGA Tour victory and helped establish him as the fourth-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking that he is today.
We've made our U.S. Open expert picks, and we'll search for value in the sleepers market below.
U.S. Open long-shot picks
- Sam Burns (+7500 via Caesars)
- Sepp Straka (+8000 via bet365)
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Sam Burns
A five-time PGA Tour winner, Burns has struggled in all four majors to this point of his career. He missed the cut in three straight majors entering this week and has a top finish of T-20 in the 2022 PGA Championship. That said, he made the weekend in each of his past two appearances in the U.S. Open, and his game is best suited for the difficult conditions of Pinehurst No. 2 this week.
Burns has a well-rounded game with strong iron play and play around the greens. He's shown improved accuracy off the tee of late, and he's 11th on the PGA Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage from this week's key distance of 200-plus yards. He's also strong from the sand and a consistently strong putter on Bermuda greens.
The No. 27 player in the OWGR is coming off a T-15 finish in the Memorial Tournament, in which he averaged a field-best 1.11 true strokes gained: around-the-green per round. That'll be key with the fast greens and thick surrounding rough this week.
For our purposes, we're most intrigued by the difference in the +5000 odds offered by BetMGM for Burns to win the U.S. Open compared to this outlier +7500 price from Caesars. That's a difference of $250 on a winning $10 bet at either sportsbook, per our odds converter.
Best odds: +7500 via Caesars
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Sepp Straka
We're sticking with our focus on recency bias and backing Straka as a T-5 finisher last week. The two-time PGA Tour winner has a better major resume than Burns, with a T-2 in last year's Open Championship and a T-7 in the 2023 PGA Championship.
We're overlooking his consecutive missed cuts in the U.S. Open in favor of his current form. Straka led last week's Signature Event field in driving accuracy, and he was eighth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Those have been consistent strengths of his across his last 15 measured rounds. His scrambling play this season has also been strong.
Straka is +8000 across the market, with the exception of the +7000 odds offered by DraftKings. I'll head to bet365 to make this an each-way bet with eight places of insurance as a means of hedging against Scheffler and the top of the oddsboard.
Best odds: +8000 via bet365
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U.S. Open betting picks
- U.S. Open picks and predictions
- U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open long-shot picks
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open props picks
- U.S. Open odds
U.S. Open odds 2024 - Favorites
Odds last updated Wednesday at 6:50 a.m. ET.
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +280 | +280 | +333 🔥 | +250 ❄️ | +300 |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +1000 | +1000 | +1100 🔥 | +850 ❄️ | +1000 |
| Rory McIlroy (NI) | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 🔥 | +1000 | +1100 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +1600 🔥 | +1400 | +1400 | +1100 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | +1600 ❄️ |
| Bryson DeChambeau 🇺🇸 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | +1400 ❄️ | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸 | +2200 | +2000 | +2200 | +1600 ❄️ | +2000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵 | +3500 | +4000 | +4500 🔥 | +3500 | +4000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood 🏴 | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3300 | +2800 ❄️ |
| Tiger Woods 🇺🇸 | +30000 | +40000 | +25000 | +40000 | +25000 |
Past U.S. Open winners
| Year | Name | Odds (as of Jan. 1) | Course |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | N/A (+10000 prior to Round 1) | Los Angeles Country Club |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +5000 | The Country Club |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm | +1200 | Torrey Pines |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 | Winged Foot Golf Club |
| 2019 | Gary Woodland | +8000 | Pebble Beach Golf Links |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Shinnecock Hills |
| 2017 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Erin Hills |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | +1500 | Oakmont Country Club |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +800 | Chambers Bay |
Past U.S. Open long-shot winners
Odds were prior to Round 1 of the tournament.
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (+10000)
- 2019: Gary Woodland (+8000)
- 2012: Webb Simpson (+8000)
- 2010: Grame McDowell (+8000)
Per Ron Klos, the above four golfers have won the U.S. Open with odds longer than +4000 since 2010. The average odds of winners in that span was +4000, with a $10 bet returning a profit of $400.
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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