U.S. Open 2025 Projected Cut Line: Who's Making It to the Weekend?
Round 2 at Oakmont Country Club is underway, and we’re tracking the 2025 U.S. Open projected cut line as the best golfers in the world battle one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour.
As it stands, the 2025 U.S. Open projected cut line has a 43% chance to be 6-over, 50% chance to be 7-over, and a 4% chance to be 8-over for the top 60 in the field, according to Data Golf. Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland top the live U.S. Open odds midway through Round 2, while J.J. Spaun leads the tournament at 4-under.
A year ago, the U.S. Open cut line sat at 5-over, with many notable players missing the cut. Who’s on the bubble this year against one of the toughest courses in golf? Let’s break down the U.S. Open odds from our best golf betting sites.
🏌️ U.S. Open odds to make the cut 2025
Here are the odds from DraftKings to make the cut in the 2025 U.S. Open prior to Round 1.
| Player | To make the cut odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -2000 | 95.24% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | -575 | 84.62% |
| Jon Rahm | -525 | 84.00% |
| Rory McIlroy | -370 | 78.72% |
| Collin Morikawa | -360 | 78.26% |
| Xander Schauffele | -350 | 77.78% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -340 | 77.27% |
| Joaquin Niemann | -260 | 72.22% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -260 | 72.22% |
| Sepp Straka | -250 | 71.43% |
| Patrick Cantlay | -240 | 70.59% |
| Justin Thomas | -240 | 70.59% |
| Corey Conners | -240 | 70.59% |
| Russell Henley | -240 | 70.59% |
| Ludvig Åberg | -235 | 70.15% |
| Shane Lowry | -235 | 70.15% |
| Ben Griffin | -205 | 67.21% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -180 | 64.29% |
| Aaron Rai | -175 | 63.64% |
| Keegan Bradley | -175 | 63.64% |
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📈 U.S. Open projected cut line latest
Midway through Round 2, the U.S. Open projected cut line has a 43% chance to be 6-over, 50% chance to be 7-over, and a 4% chance to be 8-over, according to Data Golf.
As of now, notable names like Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood are sitting right around the projected cut line midway through Round 2.
Make sure to follow along as we break down the 2025 U.S. Open projected cut line, and see Esten McLaren's U.S. Open first-round leader odds and predictions for who'll get off to a strong start on Thursday.
✂️ U.S. Open 2025 projected cut line: Who’s our best bet?
If you’re following along with our U.S. Open 2025 prop bets, you’ll see we love John Rahm in this spot. Rahm also has a history of winning this tournament, claiming the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines alongside four top 10s in his career.
💰 To make the cut parlay
Best odds: +548 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $54.80 profit)
Implied probability: 15.43%
| Player | Prop | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee | To make the cut | -120 | 54.55% |
| Rory McIlroy | To make the cut | -370 | 78.72% |
| Jason Day | To make the cut | -160 | 61.54% |
| Brooks Koepka | To make the cut | -140 | 58.33% |
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open projected cut line
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open matchup picks
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
📅 U.S. Open cut line history
Here are the past cut lines in recent U.S. Opens, ranging from plus-1 to plus-8.
| Year | Cut line (Score) | Par |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 145 | +5 |
| 2023 | 142 | +2 |
| 2022 | 143 | +3 |
| 2021 | 146 | +4 |
| 2020 | 146 | +6 |
| 2019 | 144 | +2 |
| 2018 | 148 | +8 |
| 2017 | 145 | +1 |
| 2016 | 146 | +6 |
| 2015 | 145 | +5 |
| 2014 | 145 | +5 |
🤑 Betting on the U.S. Open cut line
Bettors can either bet on a player to make or miss the cut, with the most popular prop being the former. Round 1 and 2 determine what the cut line will be, which will ultimately decide who will make it to the weekend.
It provides bettors with a chance to look at daily betting markets, instead of sticking with U.S. Open outright picks.
❓U.S. Open cut rule
At the U.S. Open, making the cut after the second round is critical for players hoping to compete through the weekend. Those who fail to meet this threshold are eliminated from the tournament and do not advance to the final two rounds.
This cut system has been a defining feature of the U.S. Open for decades, reinforcing its reputation as one of the toughest tests in golf. The 2016 U.S. Open was the last time the major was held at Oakmont, and players had to shoot a 6-over or better in order to make it to the weekend. This year, the U.S. Open projected cut line is sitting at 5-over.
⛳ U.S. Open info
- When: Thursday, June 12 - Sunday, June 15
- Where: Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pa.
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+280 via Caesars)
- Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau
- Field: 156
- Cut: Low 60 scores (plus ties)
❓U.S. Open 2025 projected cut line FAQs
What is the projected cut line at the U.S. Open?
According to Data Golf, the 2025 U.S. Open projected cut line has a 43% chance to be 6-over, 50% chance to be 7-over, and a 4% chance to be 8-over for the top 60 in the field.
How is the U.S. Open cut line determined?
The U.S. Open cut line is determined by the top 60 lowest scores (including ties) after 36 holes (Rounds 1 and 2). Unlike other majors that allow more players to advance, the U.S. Open’s tighter cut standard increases the difficulty and raises the level of competition heading into the weekend.
What was the U.S. Open cut line in previous years?
The U.S. Open cut line has varied historically based on course difficulty and weather. For example, in 2024 it was +5, while in 2023 it was +2. Tracking historical U.S. Open cut lines helps bettors and fans understand scoring trends and set realistic expectations for advancing.
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S Open
Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:
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