2024 Valspar Championship Picks & Odds: Schauffele Tops Board as Favorite with Scheffler at Home
Copperhead in Palm Harbor host the PGA Tour this week as the Florida swing continues, and we make our best Valspar Championship picks with Xander Schauffele as the betting favorite by the odds across our best golf betting sites.
One-hundred and fifty-six golfers breathe a shared sigh of relief this week as Scottie Scheffler is not in the Valspar Championship field.
Scheffler cemented his status as the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with back-to-back wins in Florida, including a come-from-behind victory in last week's Players Championship.
We may not see Scheffler tee it up again until 2024's first major, as he's already a prohibitive betting favorite by the Masters odds. There are just three non-Signature Event tournaments to go.
So, we're left with a still-strong field fronted by betting favorite Xander Schauffele and two-time tournament winner Sam Burns. Taylor Moore is also back to try to defend his 2023 win in this event.
Here are our best Valspar Championship picks to help with your golf picks this week.
Valspar Championship odds 2024
Valspar Championship odds as of Wednesday at 8:50 a.m. ET
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +650 | +650 | +800 🔥 | +600 ❄️ | +750 |
| Sam Burns | +1400 🔥 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 ❄️ | +1200 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 | +1800 | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1800 |
| Brian Harman | +2200 | +2200 | +2000 | +1800 ❄️ | +2000 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 | +2800 | +2200 | +2000 ❄️ | +2800 |
| Cameron Young | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | +2000 ❄️ | +2500 |
| Sungjae Im | +2800 | +2800 | +2200 ❄️ | +2400 | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 ❄️ | +3500 🔥 |
| Nick Taylor | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 | +2500 ❄️ | +3500 |
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Valspar Championship prop picks
Akshay Bhatia top 20 finish
Best odds: +320 via FanDuel
Bhatia missed the cut in each of his first two career attempts at Copperhead, and he's coming off a missed cut in last week's Players Championship, doing so right on the number at even par.
With the negatives out of the way, Bhatia picked up his first career win in last summer's Barracuda Championship (with modified Stableford scoring), and he's in a position to best a stronger field this week. Bhatia's strengths are in driving accuracy and his approach play. Those are essential for Copperhead, as is his fifth-ranked birdie-or-better percentage on approach shots of 175-200 yards. He has 13 birdies this season on 50 such shots.
It's an extremely tall order to back Bhatia in the outright market this week, especially with his recent struggles around the greens. But Bhatia already has three top-15 finishes this season, with two in stronger fields than this, and we're backing him to return to form following three straight missed cuts.
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Valspar Championship favorite
Xander Schauffele
Best odds: +800 via BetMGM
Schauffele finished T-2 in The Players Championship after holding the 54-hole lead. He fired a 7-under 65 in two of his four rounds for the week but even that wasn't enough to fend off Scheffler's Sunday charge.
The 30-year-old American is a six-time (solo) PGA Tour winner but this was yet another example of him not being able to close out a marquee event. While the field is considerably weaker this week, there are still a handful of top contenders, and many have the benefit of resting over the weekend following a missed cut in The Players while Schauffele must combat the mental grind of last week, and the heartache of his loss.
Schauffele draws a pass for me at these odds, and I'm not sure there's a price point that would interest me following last week. His outright odds of +800 represent an implied win probability of 11.11%, and that's just not representative of his career, even in this slightly weaker field. Avoid the +600 odds from Caesars, which imply a 14.29% win probability.
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) course info
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,340 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Larry Packard
Valspar Championship tournament info
- Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead course), Palm Harbor, Fla.
- When: Thursday, March 21 - Sunday, March 24
- Field: 156
- 2023 champion: Taylor Moore
- Purse: $8.4 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
Valspar Championship recent winners
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Taylor Moore | +5000 | -10 |
| 2022 | Sam Burns | +2000 | -17 (Playoff) |
| 2021 | Sam Burns | +6000 | -17 |
| 2020 | Canceled | ||
| 2019 | Paul Casey | +2000 | -8 |
| 2018 | Paul Casey | +2000 | -10 |
| 2017 | Adam Hadwin | +8000 | -14 |
| 2016 | Charl Schwartzel | +3000 | -7 (Playoff) |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +1200 | -10 (Playoff) |
| 2014 | John Senden | +8000 | -7 |
How to bet on golf
Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.
Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.
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