MLB All-Star Game Prediction & Odds: Can Skenes Dominate Power-Filled AL Lineup?
The MLB All-Star Game is a fun exhibition in which the very best pitchers and hitters square off in matchups we don't see often. And the power vs. power clash of Paul Skenes against Aaron Judge is dreamy stuff.
But despite the meaninglessness of the actual game result, it can also reflect the state of MLB. For example, a good handful of the league's most powerful sluggers are clustered in the American League, leading to a nine-contest winning streak for the junior circuit in the All-Star Game that was finally snapped in 2023.
Pitching has also been dominating recently, and producing relatively low-scoring affairs considering all the hitting muscle involved. The last two games have ended with a final score of 3-2. There have been seven runs or fewer scored in six of the previous seven games, too, with a low of three in 2017.
Offense being down in general carries over even to the All-Star showcase. But will that be the case again in 2024 with the likes of MLB MVP odds contenders Judge and Juan Soto set to tee off? Or will MLB Rookie of the Year odds favorite Paul Skenes mow them down?
In addition to my Home Run Derby picks and the Home Run Derby odds, let's dive into our MLB All-Star Game picks.
MLB All-Star Game prediction
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
American League ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐
By the very nature of the event, All-Star Game rosters are brimming with talent. But the American League's group is just that much more daunting.
It boasts six players who are currently among the top 10 leaguewide in home runs. Those hitters are Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, and Josh Naylor, four of whom will be starting and likely playing at least three innings. There are also five in the same position for slugging percentage.
The bench is deep too, with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way. He's an emerging five-tool megastar, and the shortstop enters the All-Star break slashing an unfair .323/.369/.558 with 22 stolen bases and 16 home runs. His Statcast page is predictably glowing with red, and his 92.6 mph average exit velocity ranks among the top 7% of MLB.
There's plenty of firepower on the mound for the AL too, and the team was seemingly modeled with the modern emphasis on power pitching in mind. Only three pitchers participating in the game rank among the top 10 in K/9, and they're all on the AL side (Garrett Crochet, Cole Ragans, and Tarik Skubal).
Did you say power? Paul Skenes enters the chat
Skenes would of course be not just on that list if he had logged the innings to qualify, but in second with his comically high 12.1 K/9. He's notched eight-plus strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts.
Now we get to salivate over some brute-force-infused matchups. Skenes, who's set to start for the NL side, will face four of the top six batters in hard-hit percentage (Judge, Soto, Henderson, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.).
But the AL can answer Skenes' flamethrowing with even more depth in that regard while leaning on Crochet, Ragans, Skubal, and Corbin Burnes, in addition to relievers Emmanual Clase and Mason Miller, with the latter boasting 70 strikeouts across just 39 2/3 innings.
The scoring might remain on the low side by All-Star Game standards and in line with recent years, and all it could take to prevail is a blast or two from a team overflowing with hitters who do that routinely.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.64%
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Under 7.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Yes, there are plenty of arrows pointing toward the Under being the right play.
Recent All-Star Game scoring trends are rooted in power pitching winning out. Although the AL may hold a slight edge in that regard, there's still plenty to be terrified about on the mound from the NL power-wise. Beyond Skenes, that includes Zack Wheeler and Hunter Greene (12.2 K/9 in 2023).
Yet still, even despite the many weapons who can suppress offense, taking the Under on such a low total involving a game with a clown car of sluggers is a petrifying sweat.
Aside from the sheer thumping ability at the plate, it's also a game that unsurprisingly features a truckload of speed, making havoc on the base paths a very real possibility whenever someone does reach. Witt, Ramirez, Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Jarren Duran, and Christian Yelich all sit among the top-15 leaguewide.
So while the pitching talent and its impact make the Under the right lean here, it's not a comfortable one.
Best odds: -111 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.63%
All-Star Game rosters
| AL | NL |
|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman*, Catcher | William Contreras*, Catcher |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*, First baseman | Bryce Harper*, First baseman |
| Marcus Semien*, Second baseman | Ketel Marte*, Second baseman |
| Jose Ramirez*, Third baseman | Alec Bohm*, Third baseman |
| Gunnar Henderson*, Shortstop | Trea Turner*, Shortstop |
| Aaron Judge*, Outfielder | Christian Yelich*, Outfielder |
| Juan Soto*, Outfielder | Jurickson Profar*, Outfielder |
| Steven Kwan*, Outfielder | Fernando Tatis Jr.*, Outfielder |
| Yordan Alvarez*, Designated hitter | Shohei Ohtani*, Designated hitter |
| Salvador Perez, Catcher | Will Smith, Catcher |
| Corey Seager, Shortstop | CJ Abrams, Shortstop |
| Josh Naylor, First baseman | Pete Alonso, First baseman |
| Isaac Parades, Third baseman | Luis Arraez, Infielder |
| Willi Castro, Second baseman | Mookie Betts, Infielder |
| Jordan Westburg, Third baseman | Elly De La Cruz, Shortstop |
| Bobby Witt Jr., Shortstop | Freddie Freeman, First baseman |
| Jarren Duran, Outfielder | Ryan McMahon, Third baseman |
| Riley Greene, Outfielder | Teoscar Hernandez, Outfielder |
| Anthony Santander, Outfielder | Jackson Merrill, Outfielder |
| David Fry, Designated hitter | Heliot Ramos, Outfielder |
| Tyler Anderson, Starting pitcher | Bryan Reynolds, Outfielder |
| Corbin Burnes, Starting pitcher | Marcell Ozuna, Designated hitter |
| Garrett Crochet, Starting pitcher | Paul Skenes*, Starting pitcher |
| Tanner Houck, Starting pitcher | Max Fried, Starting pitcher |
| Seth Lugo, Starting pitcher | Hunter Greene, Starting pitcher |
| Cole Ragans, Starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga, Starting pitcher |
| Tarik Skubal, Starting pitcher | Reynaldo Lopez, Starting pitcher |
| Emmanuel Clase, Relief pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez, Starting pitcher |
| Clay Holmes, Relief pitcher | Logan Webb, Starting pitcher |
| Andres Munoz, Relief pitcher | Zack Wheeler, Starting pitcher |
| Mason Miller, Relief pitcher | Ryan Helsley, Relief pitcher |
| Kirby Yates, Relief pitcher | Jeff Hoffman, Relief pitcher |
| Tanner Scott, Relief pitcher | |
| Matt Strahm, Relief pitcher | |
| Robert Suarez, Relief pitcher |
*starter
MLB All-Star Game odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, July 16
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: American League (-120 via Betway)
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