MLB Manager of the Year Odds and Predictions 2025: Counsell, Hinch are Runaway Favorites
There are two clear favorites in the MLB Manager of the year odds as the midway point of the season approaches. Both are from powerhouse teams in their respective leagues, including one who has been rapidly turning around the fortunes of the once woeful Detroit Tigers.
Let's take a closer look at the AL Manager of the Year odds and NL Manager of the Year odds from one of our best sportsbooks that we use often while making MLB picks.
🔢 AL manager of the year odds
| Manager | bet365 | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Hinch | -400 | 80% | $2.50 |
| Dan Wilson | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Bruce Bochy | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Joe Espada | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Kevin Cash | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Matt Quatraro | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Aaron Boone | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Alex Cora | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| John Schneider | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Rocco Baldelli | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
🔢 NL manager of the year odds
| Manager | bet365 | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Counsell | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| Bob Melvin | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Oilver Marmol | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Mike Shildt | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Carlos Mendoza | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
| Dave Roberts | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Pat Murphy | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Terry Francona | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Rob Thompson | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Torey Lovullo | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
🏆 MLB manager of the year favorites
AJ Hinch (-400)
The Detroit Tigers aren't far removed from a 2022 season when they lost 96 games. And an especially disastrous 2019 campaign in which they dropped 114 contests is also in the relatively recent past.
It's been a swift course correction from being near or above 100 losses in those seasons to now sitting among the American League leaders, and manager AJ Hinch has been central to that effort.
Hinch came aboard in 2021. There were still growing pains to endure under him, including that dreadful 2022 campaign. But then the Tigers won 86 games before ousting the Houston Astros in the playoffs last year, and now they're flying high as leading World Series odds contenders.
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Craig Counsell (-160 odds)
The Chicago Cubs haven't made the playoffs in a non-pandemic-shortened season since 2018.
But much like Hinch in Detroit, the reversal of fortunes since Counsell assumed his position has been quick. The Cubs posted a fine 83-79 record during his first season in the Windy City, and now they boast one of the best records in MLB. Even more impressively, they sit among the top teams in run differential.
Manager of the Year is a narrative-driven award more than any other, and also like Hinch, Counsell has the resurrection element on his side.
👀 MLB manager of the year odds sleeper pick
Bob Melvin (+600)
It's already growing increasingly difficult to push aside Counsell in the NL. But the gap between Counsell and the others in the top three isn't nearly as wide in the NL as Hinch's lead in the AL.
That leaves at least a sliver of space open, and Melvin has the narrative power to barrel through that door. He's also been leading a turnaround with the San Francisco Giants, who have been the definition of pedestrian over the past three seasons while posting win totals of 81, 79, and 80.
Now the Giants are among the NL leaders. However, Melvin is surely held back in this market because San Francisco needs to deal with the behemoth San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, with the latter boasting MLB MVP odds leader Shohei Ohtani.
🤖 MLB Manager of the year AI prediction
AL: AJ Hinch (-400)
Here's ChatGPT's reasoning for tabbing Hinch to secure the award as the favorite:
"Detroit boasts one of the best records in baseball, with dominant pitching and impressive win totals well above preseason expectations. Voters often reward managers who exceed expectations. Hinch’s leadership in optimizing pitching usage and navigating key player performances has drawn strong attention."
NL: Craig Counsell (-160)
Here's what ChatGPT has to say about Counsell, who's leading the surging Cubs.
"The Cubs are pacing well atop the NL Central and are recognized as strong World Series contenders. Many analysts favor Counsell due to his record and ability to maximize team potential."
📖 Manager of the year odds voting
The Manager of the Year award is given to one manager in each league every year, leading to a winner in the American League and another in the National League.
Writers from the Baseball Writers' Association of America vote, and they submit choices for first, second, and third. The winner is chosen through a points-based system, with each first-place vote worth five points, second worth three points, and third getting one point.
A similar process takes place for other awards, including to determine who triumphs in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds.
📜 MLB Manager of the Year history
🏆 Past AL Manager of the Year winners
| Year | Name |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Stephen Vogt, CLE |
| 2023 | Brandon Hyde, BAL |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge, NYY |
| 2021 | Terry Francona, CLE |
| 2020 | Kevin Cash, TB |
| 2019 | Rocco Baldelli, MIN |
| 2018 | Bob Melvin, OAK |
| 2017 | Paul Molitor, MIN |
| 2016 | Terry Francona, CLE |
| 2015 | Jeff Banister, TEX |
🏆 Past NL Manager of the Year winners
| Year | Name |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Pat Murphy, MIL |
| 2023 | Skip Schumaker, MIA |
| 2022 | Buck Showalter, NYM |
| 2021 | Gabe Kapler, SF |
| 2020 | Don Mattingly, MIA |
| 2019 | Mike Shildt, STL |
| 2018 | Brian Snitker, ATL |
| 2017 | Torey Lovullo, ARZ |
| 2016 | Dave Roberts, LAD |
| 2015 | Joe Madden, CHC |
❓Manager of the year FAQs
Who is the favorite to be Manger of the Year in 2025?
Detroit Tigers skipper AJ Hinch is the runaway favorite in the AL while getting -400 odds at bet365. In the NL, Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell is the easy favorite, and he's receiving -160 odds. Both are far ahead, with the manager in second getting +600 odds or longer in both leagues.
Who was Manager of the Year in 2024?
Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians was named the manager of the year in the AL after last season. Meanwhile, Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers took the honor in the NL. It was the third time a Guardians manager has been given the award over the past decade.
How are Manager of the Year odds determined?
Members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America vote on the MLB awards, including Manager of the Year. Two writers in every city for each league submit their votes before the postseason starts. Both Vogt and Murphy secured 27 first-place votes last year.
🏟️ MLB betting odds pages
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