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MLB Player Props & Expert Picks for Saturday: Will Crochet Add to Marlins’ Struggles Against Southpaws?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 6, 2024 9:38 AM EDT • 5 min 11 sec read.

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet leaves the field after throwing to the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field as we look at our MLB best bets for Saturday.
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet leaves the field after throwing to the Minnesota Twins in the fifth inning at Target Field. Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/USA TODAY Sports.

Major League Baseball is featuring another loaded 15-game slate for the penultimate Saturday before the All-Star Break, and we're offering our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

The New York Yankees were coming off the Cincinnati Reds sweeping them at home in a three-game series prior to Friday’s series opener against the Boston Red Sox. It was the first time an NL opponent swept them at home in a three-game series since interleague play began in 1997. They followed that up with a 5-3 loss to the Red Sox on Friday, which brings their record to 4-14 since June 15, the worst in baseball over that span. 

The Yankees and Red Sox start the day’s action from Yankee Stadium at 1:05 p.m. ET, which is where our first of four MLB player prop bets comes from. The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins then square off from Target Field at 2:10 p.m. ET in a battle of two teams trying to track down the first-place squads in their respective divisions.

Saturday’s MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

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MLB player props

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds+125+110+130+123+135

Game info: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-200 via bet365) | Total: 9 via bet365 | Start time: 1:05 p.m. ET

Rafael Devers entered Friday's series opener boasting the hottest bat in the Boston's lineup over the previous seven days, with a team-high 1.126 OPS and a .318/.444/.682 slash line during that span.

Devers is one of the most significant reasons Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has been struggling against the Red Sox, as he's slashed .306/.375/.917 in 36 career at-bats against the righty, with eight of his 11 hits going for extra bases.

Cole has produced a 4.68 ERA in 17 career starts against Boston, the highest among the 14 opponents he's made nine-plus starts against. He's not anywhere close to being the vintage ace that won the Cy Young Award in 2023 with just three starts under his belt this season. And while he showed positive signs during his last outing with 61 of his 90 pitches going for strikes, we're getting great value on Devers to drive in at least one run against an overvalued pitcher, especially since he's registered two-plus RBIs in four of his last five games.

That alone makes his +135 odds at bet365 worth it, even though the implied probability of Devers driving in a run is 42.55%. But we're making this wager at bet365, which would pay out $2.50 more on a $10 winning wager ($23.50) than FanDuel ($21).

Best odds: +135 via bet365 | Implied probability: 42.55%

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Hunter Brown Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-120N/A-125-119-120

Game info: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-130 via bet365) | Total: 7.5 via bet365 | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET  

Hunter Brown had built a strong case to be the AL Pitcher of the Month in June, as he pitched to a 1.22 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with a 45:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the six starts prior to his last outing. He then followed that up with six scoreless innings while allowing just two hits on July 1 in a road matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Opponents have scored two or fewer runs when Brown has toed the rubber in each of his last five starts, and no opponent has topped four runs against him since May 11, spanning 10 outings.

This is only a three-star play, as we'll continue to ride Brown’s hot streak while fading a Twins offense that leads the majors in wOBA (.398) and is second in BABIP (.342) during home games against right-handed pitchers since during June. However, Minnesota’s best hitter Royce Lewis is on the IL yet again, and its lineup isn't nearly as deep without him. 

All of our best sports betting sites are pretty much aligned on Brown’s earned runs odds. But Caesars gives us the best implied probability that he stays Under 2.5 earned runs (54.34%), with a potential $21.90 payout on a $10 wager.

Best odds: -119 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.34%

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Garrett Crochet to record a win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-105N/AN/A-101+100

Game info: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins | Moneyline: White Sox (-155 via Betway) | Total: 6.5 via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

The Chicago White Sox find themselves as favorites for just the sixth time in 2024. And while this is their first game as road favorites, they've won four of the previous five in the favorite role this season.

Backing Garrett Crochet to record the win is an excellent way to mitigate Chicago’s steep moneyline odds (as high as -165 at bet365), especially when the Marlins are an MLB-worst 4-26 against left-handed starters this season.

Crochet is coming off an AL Pitcher of the Month award for June when recorded a 1.91 ERA while striking out 56 batters in 57 2/3 innings. That followed a May when tallied a minuscule 0.93 ERA in five starts.

bet365 is our go-to shop for this wager since it's alone among our best sportsbooks while offering plus-money odds (a $10 winning wager would return exactly $20) and an even 50% implied probability that Crochet will be the game’s winning pitcher.

Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%

Marcell Ozuna Under 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-145N/A-145-145-140

Game info: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves | Moneyline: Braves (-115 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Marcell Ozuna leads the Atlanta Braves in nearly every offensive category, including batting average (.296), home runs (22), RBIs (70), on-base percentage (.377), and hits (94).

However, he entered Friday’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies in a 4-for-31 hitting slump with just two extra-base knocks in the previous nine games. While he did hit a three-run homer late Friday, Ozuna’s track record against Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez suggests he'll struggle Saturday, as he's slashed .200/.250/.200 with five strikeouts in 15 career at-bats against Suarez. 

This is a four-star play, as Suarez is enjoying the best season of his career in many respects while remaining a contender in our Cy Young odds. He's on pace for career-lows in walk rate (5.2%), ERA (2.27), and xERA (2.96). Suarez also ranks in the 88th percentile in barrels and the 93rd percentile in ground ball rate, which suggests the 58.33% implied probability of Ozuna going Under 1.5 total bases is justified.

The potential payout on a $10 wager is $17.14 at bet365 compared to $16.90 at all of our other best sports betting apps that offer -145 odds.     

Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%

MLB player props made Saturday at 5:38 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”