MLB Player Props & Expert Picks for Monday: Elly Keeps on Cruising
The last time a Cincinnati Red stole more than 60 bases in a season, Ken Anderson was the Bengals' starting quarterback.
But Elly De La Cruz will change that soon enough, and we expect him to add to his total on Monday against the Colorado Rockies at 7:10 p.m. ET as part of our MLB player props.
On a quieter day in MLB, first-time All-Star Steven Kwan should make some noise with his Cleveland Guardians playing the Detroit Tigers, as he looks to bolster his long shot MLB MVP odds.
Two other matchups I'm keeping my eye on are the Washington Nationals vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at 4:05 p.m. ET, and the Minnesota Twins, who continue to climb the World Series odds, against the Chicago White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Monday’s MLB expert picks
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 total bases (-111 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Steven Kwan Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 steal (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Byron Buxton Over 0.5 home run (+280 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
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MLB player props
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-135) | Over 1.5 (-111) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Game info: Cardinals vs. Nationals | Moneyline: Nationals (-115 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-110)/Under 9 (-110) bet365 | Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
I'm not sure anybody outside of D.C. cares enough about the Nationals this season to see what a hit CJ Abrams has been during his second full campaign with the team. The former sixth overall pick has earned his first All-Star appearance thanks to a dominant June.
Abrams slashed .374/.464/.663 with 55 total bases over 22 games last month. He's averaging 2.3 total bases per game in June and July after a slow May. That hot streak should continue for the 23-year-old against the Cardinals.
St. Louis is slated to start Miles Mikolas, who has given up 23 hits and 15 earned runs over his last 16 1/3 innings. Abrams is poised to continue Mikolas' slump. The Cardinals' starter uses two pitches more than 24% of the time - four-seamer and sinker - and Abrams is smoking both.
He's logged a .307 average and .648 Slugging percentage against four-seamers and is hitting .500 with a .708 slugging against sinkers, according to Baseball Savant. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays a $9.01 profit.
Best odds: -111 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.61%
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Steven Kwan Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (+125) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+130) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+135) |
Game info: Guardians vs. Tigers | Moneyline: Guardians (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
If MLB handed out a most improved award, it would likely go to Kwan. The Guardians' outfielder has gone from a Gold Glove defender to a full-blown All-Star, and the best contact hitter in baseball this season. Kwan leads the league in batting average (.364) and has been unstoppable since returning from an injury on May 31.
He ended May with a three-hit game before riding that momentum into June while slashing .374/.436/.582. He's averaging 2.8 hits, runs, and RBIs per game while going over the 2.5 mark in 15 contests since returning to Cleveland's lineup. He should be able to clear 2.5 once again against Tigers' starter Keider Montero.
This is just Montero's fourth start of the year, and he's already allowed 16 hits, 11 runs, and four homers in 15 innings. He also goes to his four-seamer (43.7%) a ton, a pitch Kwan is batting .395 against with a .640 slugging percentage. A $10 winning bet on Kwan to hit the Over pays a $13.50 profit.
Best odds: +135 via bet365 | Implied probability: 42.55%
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Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 steal ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+145) | Over 0.5 (+152) | Over 0.5 (+140) | OFF | Over 0.5 (+155) |
Game info: Rockies vs. Reds | Moneyline: Reds (-180 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-120)/Under 9 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Imagine if Billy Hamilton could hit bombs. That's basically what De La Cruz has become for the Reds. He's a threat to steal at any moment, but also a problem for pitchers when he's at the plate. I don't think there's a cooler player in the sport right now than De La Cruz.
Rickey Henderson made stealing bases the coolest thing in baseball, and nobody is better right now than De La Cruz. He leads the league in stolen bases by 14 and already has already logged three over six games in July. Good luck to Ryan Feltner, Colorado's starting pitcher on Monday.
Feltner has allowed 18 stolen bases over 17 starts, and Colorado ranks in the bottom half of the league in stolen bases allowed per game (0.78). De La Cruz has notched 43 stolen bases in 90 games (47.7%), so these odds from bet365 offer great value, with a $10 bet paying a $15.50 profit.
Best odds: +155 via bet365 | Implied probability: 39.22%
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 home run ⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+225) | Over 0.5 (+280) | Over 0.5 (+250) | Over 0.5 (+225) | Over 0.5 (+225) |
Game info: Twins vs. White Sox | Moneyline: Twins (-185 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-125)/Under 9 (+105) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Closing out my best MLB player props for Monday, I'm looking at a home run prop for a slugger on the rise. But with how volatile the home run market is nightly, I recommend putting just a half unit on this one. However, there's strong reason to believe Byron Buxton slams one to the moon.
The Twins' outfielder never can seem to stay healthy, but he's been hammering homers when on the field. Buxton has hit five dingers in his last 11 games while pulverizing baseballs to start July. He's slashing .444/.524/.778 through five games, and it appears Chicago's Chris Flexen will be his next victim.
The starter for the White Sox is tied for the 12th-most homers allowed this season with 15, and he's given up seven in his last five starts. Buxton is going to be a problem for him, with the former All-Star slugging .620 or better against both his top pitches. A $5 bet on this prop pays a $14 profit.
Best odds: +280 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 26.32%
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MLB player props made Monday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
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