Friday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Can Mariners Stay Hot at Coors?
Following a limited getaway day slate that lost one of its games due to weather, we have all 30 teams back in action and are offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Yesterday's hopes for a full slate of games were dashed by Mother Nature once again, as the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs match at Wrigley Field was postponed. The Friday schedule begins with this rescheduled game, set for a 2:20 p.m. ET start.
Following this, the action heats up at 6:40 p.m. ET with three matchups featuring MLB MVP odds contenders Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Oneil Cruz.
Later in the evening, an AL East showdown unfolds between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, a top World Series odds contender. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
Wrapping up the night is the second game of the four-game series that highlighted Thursday's action. The Arizona Diamondbacks seek vengeance at Oracle Park against the San Francisco Giants, with MLB Cy Young odds contender Blake Snell taking the mound. The game kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Friday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB expert picks
- Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Triston McKenzie Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (-115) | Under 3.5 (-116) | Under 3.5 (-120) | Under 3.5 (-139) | Under 3.5 (-125) |
Game info: Mariners vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Mariners (-135 via Betway) | Total: Over 10.5 (-120)/Under 10.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 8:40 p.m. ET
We have a classic meeting between an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object on Friday, though our version is more of a pitcher who can't strike anyone out vs. a team that can't stop striking out.
Dakota Hudson wasn't an especially strikeout-heavy pitcher at the best of times while with the St. Louis Cardinals, and then he went to the Colorado Rockies this offseason. Through three starts, Hudson has managed just 5.71 strikeouts per nine innings, slightly below his career average of 6.01.
However, the Seattle Mariners can't and won't stop striking out. Maybe it's baseball's version of a slow roll and the Mariners will soon surprise everyone by living up to their potential. For now, though, they own the worst strikeout rate in the league at a whopping 28.5%. Something's got to give on Friday.
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Based on our trusted projections, it'll be Hudson who loses (or wins, depending on how you look at it) this battle. He's projected for just 3.02 punchouts on Friday, nearly a full K below what he'd need to clear this total.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with its Under priced at -117, and it's since moved to -145.
Most of our other best sports betting sites are offering relatively competitive prices, but I'd bet this only at DraftKings and FanDuel at this time.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings
Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-165) | Under 4.5 (+128) | Under 5.5 (-167) | Under 5.5 (-164) | Under 5.5 (-160) |
Game info: Red Sox vs. Pirates | Moneyline: Pirates (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Boston Red Sox icon Pedro Martinez has made it no secret he's a massive fan of Brayan Bello, even going as far as to say he believes the 24-year-old is more talented than he was. Regardless of how you feel about that statement, the fact is that Bello certainly doesn't strike out opposing hitters the way Martinez did.
The right-hander has managed just 8.27 K/9 this year after recording 7.57 per nine across 157 innings in 2023. He's gone Over this total in two of his four starts.
He'll get some help on Friday thanks to the Pittsburgh Pirates' habit of striking out in bunches. They own the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 24.5%, and it's not as though they offset that by hitting for a ton of power.
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Despite that, though, Bello's projection is providing us with good value on these enticing +128 odds at FanDuel. Based on his projected total of 4.47, we're getting roughly 24% positive expected value on this bet.
Bello's total is set at 5.5 at our other best sports betting apps, but playing the Under 4.5 is the higher EV play based on our projections.
Best odds: +128 via FanDuel
Triston McKenzie Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-165) | Under 5.5 (-140) | Under 5.5 (-161) | Under 5.5 (-179) | Under 5.5 (-155) |
Game info: Athletics vs. Guardians | Moneyline: Guardians (-170 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Cleveland Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie broke onto the scene as a strikeout-heavy pitcher with major walk issues. Now, he doesn't really strike anyone out but still has those same walk issues.
McKenzie has been horrible through three starts (13 innings), allowing nine earned runs on 11 hits and a whopping 12 walks while recording only five strikeouts. Yes, you read that right; he's managed 3.46 K/9 while walking 8.31 per nine.
Fortunately for McKenzie, he gets the lowly Oakland Athletics on Friday. The A's stink in so many ways, with their 27.4% strikeout rate (second-worst in the league) being only one of them. That's likely the reason why we're seeing a pitcher who has five strikeouts all season with a line of 5.5 on Friday.
However, our trusted projection models don't believe even Oakland is bad enough to get McKenzie to six punchouts. He's projected for just 4.53 Ks on Friday, and when we run that number against FanDuel's -140 price, we're getting 19% +EV even on these short odds.
As you can see, most of our other best sportsbooks are hovering around -160 or shorter, and Pinnacle is already at -180.
Best odds: -140 via FanDuel
MLB best bets made Friday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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