Tuesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Who Will Shine When Mariners Meet Rangers?

Major League Baseball is back with a full slate on Tuesday after a lighter Monday offering, and we're bringing you our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.

Eight of Monday's 11 games were decided by three or fewer runs (hopefully you have one of those closers on your fantasy team). Now Tuesday's slate gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET when the Boston Red Sox visit the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.

We then have a rare early evening appearance - for East Coasters, at least - by the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers, as they'll take on the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET from Nationals Park (side note: can we please rename that stadium to something at least relatively creative?).

There's also an intriguing AL West battle between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, which is heavily featured in our top player props. That game gets underway at 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB expert picks

• Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 strikeouts (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Dane Dunning Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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MLB player props

Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Tigers vs. Rays | Moneyline: Rays (-165 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET

We got burned last week when we bet Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels. But much like we did on Monday with Brandon Pfaadt, we're going right back for the same bet.

Pepiot has struck out 27 hitters across 22 2/3 innings this season, though he's gone Over this total in only half of his appearances. On Tuesday, he faces a Detroit Tigers team that's struck out at the seventh-highest rate in the league this season, and it's always risky taking the Under on a pitcher who gets to face Javier Baez a few times.

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However, Pepiot is projected to record only 5.68 strikeouts on Tuesday, a far cry from the seven he'd need to clear this number. Based on that projection, we're getting better than 36% positive expected value on this bet through FanDuel's +108 odds.

As you can see, FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds on this Under, and Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is already at -125 after opening at -101.

Best odds: +108 via FanDuel

Dane Dunning Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Mariners vs. Rangers | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-135)/Under 8.5 (+110) via Betway | Start time: 8:05 p.m. ET

We have a double dose of player props from this Mariners vs. Rangers contest. We'll start with Rangers right-hander Dane Dunning, the inferior pitcher with the superior matchup.

Sure, the Mariners own the league's second-highest strikeout rate, but Dunning isn't exactly the type of pitcher who can exploit that. The 29-year-old is managing 8.61 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but he's pairing that with an atrocious 5.09 walks per nine.

Additionally, his ERA is 3.91 and he's pitched at least five innings in all four of his starts. But his expected ERA is 6.87, so regression is looming. Seattle may strike out a lot, but it's also the type of team that can absolutely punish a mediocre pitcher like Dunning.

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Our trusted projections support that, too, as he's expected to record only 4.99 punchouts on Tuesday, one full K below what he'd need to go Over this total. Based on that projection, we're getting just better than 15% +EV on this bet, and you can get the best odds at two of our best sports betting apps, with bet365 and Caesars offering the same price.

Meanwhile, FanDuel is already as short as -138 and Pinnacle is at -154. Be sure to use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS to get these odds before they're gone!

Best odds: -115 via bet365

Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Mariners vs. Rangers | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-135)/Under 8.5 (+110) via Betway | Start time: 8:05 p.m. ET  

We move to Logan Gilbert, who has been outstanding through four starts but now gets a very tough matchup. The Rangers aren't only dangerous, but they also rarely strike out, with their 19.3% K rate serving as the league's third-lowest.

For his part, Gilbert is managing a career-best 9.67 K/9 across his first 27 innings this season, and he's gone Over this total in all four of his appearances. So, why the heck are we taking the Under?

Well, Gilbert is projected to record only 5.11 punchouts on Tuesday. Presumably, that's due to some combination of the Rangers' ability to avoid striking out and the looming regression due to hit Gilbert, too. Much like Dunning, Gilbert's expected ERA is far higher than his actual number (3.70 to 2.33), and his .206 BABIP is sure to normalize at some point.

We can see our other best sportsbooks have already priced that in, as has Pinnacle, which offers Gilbert's Under at -129. FanDuel's +100 odds look like a steal, as we're getting better than 19% +EV on this bet through that book.

Best odds: +100 via FanDuel

MLB player props made Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET.

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• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)