MLB Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Judge Poised for Strong Friday

In today's MLB player props, we're focusing on one of the top teams by the World Series odds as the Philadelphia Phillies play the Oakland Athletics at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Then our attention goes to the runaway MLB MVP odds favorite in the AL, with Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees looking to get back on track against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:05 p.m. ET.

For the last two player props on Friday, we're looking at a pair of former All-Stars in Corey Seager and Sonny Gray. Seager leads the Texas Rangers against the Houston Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET, and Gray takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals in a matchup at 8:15 p.m. ET with the Chicago Cubs.

Friday’s MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 strikeouts (-148 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Corey Seager Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Sonny Gray Under 4.5 hits allowed (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

MLB player props

Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -148 via Caesars | Implied probability: 59.68%

These odds are short, but they could probably be shorter with the way Ranger Suarez has pitched this season and how bad the A's are at baseball. Suarez holds the lowest ERA in the NL (2.58), and he's getting the third-shortest Cy Young odds in the National League. 

While Suarez isn't necessarily a flame-throwing pitcher racking up strikeouts, Oakland is among the worst batting teams in baseball. The A's hold the third-lowest average in MLB (.224) and the second-most strikeouts (924). I'm expecting Suarez to take advantage after averaging 9.7 strikeouts per game as a team.

The Phillies' starter has logged 106 strikeouts across 108 innings this season and has notched at least six in 11 of 18 starts, including his last outing against the Atlanta Braves. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays a $6.76 profit.

Game info: Athletics vs. Phillies | Moneyline: Phillies (-290 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (+100)/Under 9 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

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Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%

We've all been waiting for the Judge bounce-back game, and the Orioles are putting the perfect pitcher on the mound for the Yankees' slugger to mash. Baltimore is set to start Cade Povich, and the rookie has looked out of place in six starts this season.

Povich has registered a 6.51 ERA and allowed eight earned runs while making it just one inning in his last outing. Now he's being asked to get it together against New York? I don't think that's happening. With five homers allowed in his last three starts from Povich, Judge could go yard against him and cash this prop in one swing.

Despite Judge struggling lately, he's still hammering four-seamers this season, which is Povich's go-to pitch. Judge is batting .327 with a .767 xSLG and 66.2% hard-hit rate against that pitch. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays an $8.33 profit.

Game info: Yankees vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Yankees (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (+100)/Under 9 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET

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Corey Seager Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%

After dealing with a bit of a World Series hangover to start the season, Seager has snapped back into All-Star form. The 30-year-old is playing his best baseball this month while slashing .344/.400/.688 in July with nearly as many total bases in eight games (22) than in 20 outings during June (28).

Seager is averaging 3.2 hits, runs, and RBIs per game so far in July, and he should be able to cash this prop in his matchup against the Astros. Houston is starting Hunter Brown, who is coming off an outing in which he allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs against the Minnesota Twins.

Seager finished with a combined three hits, runs, and RBIs the last time Brown started against the Rangers while helping Texas score 10 runs. A $10 bet on this prop pays an $8 profit if Seager can do it again.

Game info: Rangers vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-155 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-110)/Under 8 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Sonny Gray Under 4.5 hits allowed ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -135 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 57.45%

Here's another pitcher with a favorable matchup against one of the worst teams in the league, and Sonny Gray has already cooked the Cubs once this season. Gray allowed just one hit while striking out eight across five innings of work in his last appearance against Chicago.

The 34-year-old has given up fewer than five hits in eight of 16 starts this season, and the Cubs have struggled at the plate all year. To make things tougher on Chicago, Cody Bellinger, who leads the team in hits (84), is on the IL with a broken finger after getting hit by a pitch earlier this week.

So I'm not hopeful a team that's seventh-last in MLB in hits (725) and has posted the eighth-most strikeouts (838) is going to hit Gray well without its most consistent bat. A $10 winning bet on Gray pays a $7.41 profit.

Game info: Cubs vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Cardinals (-200 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-115)/Under 8 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

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