Saturday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Kikuchi Snap Losing Streak?
June begins with a loaded 15-game Saturday Major League Baseball, and we offer our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
June signals a good time for fans and bettors to dig into the MLB standings, as most statistics - both player and team - tend to normalize by this point.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, 94 of the 161 teams since 1995 (58%) that were in sole possession of first in their division entering June have gone on to win it.
Saturday provides a chance for several of MLB’s best teams to inflate their record and create distance between themselves and their competitors, as the only game between two teams with winning records is a showdown between the San Diego Padres and Kansas City Royals matchup at 4:10 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Saturday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday’s MLB expert picks
- Yusei Kikuchi to record a win (+170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 runs (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 outs (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Yusei Kikuchi to record a win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +165 | OFF | OFF | +159 | +170 |
Game info: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline: Blue Jays (-165 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Yusei Kikuchi has won just two of his 11 starts, despite averaging nine strikeouts per nine innings and six of those being quality starts. That strikeout rate figures to increase against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that just whiffed eight times in seven innings in their last game against a southpaw (Tarik Skubal), and one that has the third-highest K% (25.8%) against lefties all season.
Toronto is 0-6 in Kikuchi’s last six starts, but four of his six quality starts have come at home this season, where he has pitched to a 2.81 ERA and a .212 OBA, as opposed to a .294 OBA in road starts. And from the All-Star Break of last season to mid-May, Kikuchi ranked fourth in fWAR among all starting pitchers, which suggests he will not be kept out of the win column for long.
bet365 offers similar +190 odds for Pirates righty Mitch Keller to earn the victory, so we feel we are getting very generous odds at +170 with Kikuchi, given that the Blue Jays are steep -165 moneyline favorites.
Best odds: +170 via bet365
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Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -115 | -145 | -115 | -119 | -115 |
Game info: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-170 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Gunnar Henderson has a path to the AL MVP Award this year, especially if New York Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto take votes away from each other. Henderson entered the weekend tied with Judge and Tucker for the MLB lead in home runs (18), and he ranked eighth in wRC+ and fourth in fWAR.
Henderson has scored at least one run in three consecutive games and 10 of his last 13, and the Orioles have scored the second-most runs in the AL (155) in home games this year.
Baltimore should find offensive success against Tampa Bay Rays righty Taj Bradley, who has made three of his four starts against AL East opponents this year and has pitched to a 4.00 ERA while allowing three home runs and a 31:13 fly ball-to-ground ball ratio in that span.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM
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Cal Raleigh to hit a home run ⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +245 | +390 | +260 | +250 | +250 |
Game info: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-170 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Cal Raleigh is the epitome of the Seattle Mariners lineup, one that ranks in the top 10 of the majors in home runs (63), but one that also has scored more runs than only the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox, in large part because they collectively bat .222 with a .296 on-base percentage.
Raleigh has struck out in 17 of 44 at-bats against left-handed pitching this year, but he is also the only Mariners hitter with five home runs against southpaws. He has excellent odds to take Reid Detmers deep, a pitcher who has allowed multiple home runs in four of his previous seven starts, with his HR/9 rate on pace to increase for the third straight season.
Raleigh backers should head to FanDuel for this wager, as the $3.90 return on every dollar bet for a winning wager trumps the next-best odds at BetMGM ($2.60 per dollar wagered).
Best odds: +390 via FanDuel
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 outs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -200 (Over 17.5) | -106 | -200 (Over 17.5) | -199 (Over 17.5) | -190 (Over 17.5) |
Game info: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Moneyline: Dodgers (-330 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Yoshinobu Yamamoto averages 86.6 pitchers per start, which ranks third among all Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitchers. However, he has thrown 100 pitches in back-to-back starts, which is a sign that the coaching staff trusts that he is fully stretched out and capable of working deeper into games.
Yamamoto has recorded 18-plus outs in five of his previous seven starts, including reaching that mark in three consecutive home starts. He should work effectively against a Colorado Rockies lineup that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in road games, while also ranking 20th or worse in all slash line categories and 25th in wRC+ in that split.
With all our other best sports betting sites’ odds being too steep to back Yamomoto Over 17.5 outs, we are opting for the much better price at the higher total at FanDuel.
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Saturday at 7:06 a.m. ET.
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- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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