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Saturday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Kepler Continue Raking?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: May 11, 2024 3:41 PM EDT • 4 min 9 sec read.

With 15 MLB games scheduled across a busy Saturday, we're offering our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

Eight of this weekend's 15 MLB series are divisional matchups. None offer more intrigue than the NL West showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, with Saturday's first pitch from Petco Park set for 8:40 p.m. ET.

While the Padres look to prevent the Dodgers from running away with the division early, the Tampa Bay Rays are hoping to ensure that the AL East race is not just between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles when they host the Yankees at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Saturday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s MLB expert picks

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MLB player props

Max Kepler Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds+175+165N/A+165+180

Game info: Twins vs. Blue Jays | Moneyline: Blue Jays (-160 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 3:07 p.m. ET

The Minnesota Twins entered their series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays having won 15 of their last 17 games, and Max Kepler is a big reason why. 

Kepler entered Friday with a career-best 11-game hitting streak, while batting .434 with three home runs and 14 RBI in the 16 games since coming off the injured list. Kepler served as a catalyst for a rejuvenated offense that has averaged 6.6 runs and 10.1 hits per game over the 17-game hot streak, which should serve as proof that there will be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when he is at the plate. 

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The +180 odds at bet365 are too good to pass up for a batter that has driven in at least one run in eight of the last 12 games.

Best odds: +180 via bet365

Zack Littell Over 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-110OFFOFF-115-110

Game info: Yankees vs. Rays | Moneyline: Yankees (-125 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET  

The Yankees have a reputation for being a club that takes advantage of their friendly confines and short porches at Yankee Stadium for the bulk of their offensive production, but the numbers suggest they have been a better offensive team on the road than at home this year.

Through 19 home games, the Yankees have scored 85 runs and have a collective .743 OPS with 24 home runs. Meanwhile, through 20 road games entering Friday, New York had scored 103 runs with a .752 OPS and had hit 27 home runs.

Righty Zack Littell leads all Rays starting pitchers with a 1.0 WAR, but he has also not faced a single team ranked in the top half of the league in runs scored in any of his seven starts, three of which have been quality starts.

Thus, we expect a rough outing for Littell, and with the Yankees having -150 odds to go over their team total of 3.5 runs at BetMGM, we are getting good odds that they will do their damage against the starting pitcher.

Best odds: -110 via bet365

Manny Machado Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-150OFFOFFOFFOFF

Game info: Dodgers vs. Padres | Moneyline: Dodgers (-150 via Betway) | Total: 8.5 via Betway | Start time: 8:40 p.m. ET

Dodgers southpaw James Paxton has a 2.55 ERA in five career starts against the Padres, but not with an abundance of clean innings, as he also has a troubling 1.581 WHIP in that span. That was inflated by a horrendous start earlier this year, where he walked eight Padres and struck out just one in five innings.

Paxton has allowed a collective .301/.386/.613 slash line in 73 at-bats to current Padres hitters. Manny Machado is one of three Padres (minimum 10 at-bats) with a .943 OPS or better against Paxton - his is the highest at 1.357 - as two of his five hits in 11 at-bats against the lefty have gone for extra bases.

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Given the limited sportsbooks that carry the hits + runs + RBIs market, we would not put anyone off searching for the best price on the Over on any of these individual categories for Machado.

Best odds: -150 via DraftKings

Joey Estes Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-120OFFOFF-127-120

Game info: Athletics vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-240 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET

Joey Estes made his first two career starts for the Oakland Athletics in September, and he recorded seven strikeouts in his 10 innings pitched. However, if there is any team that a pitcher can inflate their strikeout totals against, it's the Seattle Mariners.

Per Baseball Reference, Seattle entered Thursday’s series finale against the Twins with an average of 10.38 strikeouts per game. That's 0.48 worse than the franchise’s worst-ever mark set last year.

The Twins set the ominous record last season with the most strikeouts in a single year (1,654), but Seattle is on pace to break that after coming off a series with 53 strikeouts. That allowed Minnesota to set a franchise pitching record for the most punchouts in a four-game series.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

MLB player props made Saturday at 6:47 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”