MLB Predictions & Player Props Today, Aug. 9
The weekend is nearly upon us, but there's plenty to get excited about before it comes thanks to another jam-packed MLB slate, featuring a doubleheader between AL Central contenders.
There are plenty of good matchups on Friday, but none carry greater significance than the pair of games between the Cleveland Guardians (67-47, first in the AL Central) and the Minnesota Twins (63-50, 3.5 games back). They'll square off at 2:10 p.m. ET and then again at around 8:10 p.m. ET.
We looked at that first game for our initial pick from our best sports betting sites, with a bet on the total bases prop for the Twins' shortstop.
With that contest underway, we turn our attention to a West Coast affair, as the New York Mets look to shut down the Mariners in Seattle.
Today’s MLB predictions
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Jose Quintana Over 5.5 hits allowed (+136 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Willi Castro Over 0.5 total bases (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
MLB player props for Friday
Jose Quintana Over 5.5 hits allowed ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +125 | OFF | +100 | +136 | +115 |
Best odds: +136 via Caesars | Implied probability: 42.37%
Mets left-hander Quintana hasn't been bad this season, as he owns a 3.95 ERA and serves as a solid innings-eater every fifth day for New York. However, he's been very lucky when it comes to his ability to suppress base hits, and that regression is coming sooner rather than later.
Quintana's .260 opponent BABIP is by far the lowest of his career, which is surprising given he's a ground-ball pitcher and MLB no longer allows infields to dramatically shift like they used to.
Based on Quintana's projections for Friday, we're getting good value on the Mariners to record at least six base hits against the southpaw. Additionally, these +136 odds at Caesars are easily the longest among any of our best sportsbooks.
You're getting more than an extra dollar per $10 winning wager by placing this bet at Caesars ($13.60) vs. the next-best price at DraftKings ($12.50).
Additionally, Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is trading at +107 after opening at +122.
Game info: Mets vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-130 via bet365) | Total: 8 via bet365 | Start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
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Willi Castro Over 0.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -180 | OFF | -161 | -167 | -140 |
Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%
Twins shortstop Castro has cooled off after becoming a valuable member of the team for most of the early portion of the season. He's batting just .198 over the last month with one home run and a .565 OPS.
However, there's reason for optimism on Friday.
First, the Guardians are sending left-hander Joey Cantillo to the mound for the first game. Not only does Cantillo stink, but the switch-hitting Castro has been much better against southpaws this season.
He's slashing .282/.325/.455 against lefties vs. .248/.351/.384 against righties. Considering walks don't help us at all in this market, we don't care about his OBP.
That's likely why we're seeing a ton of value on Castro's Over 0.5 total bases prop for the afternoon contest, and bet365's -140 odds are easily the longest among our best sports betting apps.
Meanwhile, Pinnacle is trading at -165. The implied projection associated with those odds is 62.26%, a far better representation of Castro's expected performance.
Game info: Guardians vs. Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-160 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 2:05 p.m. ET
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