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Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Abreu Record 1st Home Run?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: April 16, 2023 8:41 AM EDT • 4 min 4 sec read.

Another weekend of Major League Baseball series wraps up on a jampacked Sunday slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.

New York’s Anthony Volpe became the youngest Yankee to ever steal three bases in a game, per MLB Stats, and now has six stolen bases on the season. Yet, one can still find Volpe at +500 odds at DraftKings to steal a base Sunday. What player props and game picks interest us the most today?

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • San Francisco Giants (-150) vs. Detroit Tigers (+130)
  • Los Angeles Angels (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-115)
  • Cleveland Guardians (-230) vs. Washington Nationals (+195)
  • Minnesota Twins (+140) vs. New York Yankees (-165)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (-120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+100)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) vs. Miami Marlins (-125)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+160)
  • Atlanta Braves (-165) vs. Kansas City Royals (+140)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Chicago White Sox (-140)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-175)
  • New York Mets (-165) vs. Oakland Athletics (+140)
  • Chicago Cubs (+195) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-230)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (+145) vs. San Diego Padres (-170)
  • Colorado Rockies (+230) vs. Seattle Mariners (-275)
  • Texas Rangers (+165) vs. Houston Astros (-195)

Sunday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Julio Urias to record a win (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Cubs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Twins ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Jose Abreu to hit a home run (+400 via FanDuel) vs. Rangers ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Diamondbacks-Marlins Under 7 runs (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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Sunday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Julio Urias to record a win vs. Cubs (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Those that don't want to pay the steep -230 moneyline odds to back the Los Angeles Dodgers can find solace in wagering on ace Julio Urias to record a win at much more affordable odds.

Urias has been highly consistent in all three of his starts thus far (all wins), going six innings in each while allowing two or fewer earned runs and striking out at least six batters while walking just two. This hot start comes one year after he led the league in ERA (2.16) and ERA+ and two years after winning 20 games, which also led the league. 

Urias has proven tough to square up this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile in barrels and 90th in chase rate.

This is a solid four-star play, as the Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 games against the Chicago Cubs and have won 91 of their previous 124 home games. We're making this play at DraftKings, as their odds are more appealing than the +111 found at Caesars.

Player prop: Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 earned runs vs. Twins (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is one of five pitchers that has won all of his starts this season, and that torrid beginning has him and Shohei Ohtani as one of two pitchers atop the early AL Cy Young odds lists at every sportsbook. However, Cole has struggled with command this season, walking two or more batters in all three outings, and the Minnesota Twins have had tremendous success against him compared to the average team in the league.

Current Twins are slashing .286/.328/.556 in 77 combined at-bats against Cole, and 10 of the 22 hits have gone for extra bases, including six home runs. Shortstop Carlos Correa has done the most damage off Cole, going 6-for-10 with an OPS of 1.845. Yankees manager Aaron Boone always treats Cole like the workhorse he is and will likely be given a long leash if he gets in trouble, as evidenced by his 98.3 pitches per start.

Once again, the best value is at DraftKings, as Caesars is at -137 to back the Over.

Player prop: Jose Abreu to hit a home run vs. Rangers (+400 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Houston Astros slugger Jose Abreu has four hits in 11 career at-bats against Texas Rangers southpaw Andrew Heaney, and all of them have been home runs. That kind of individual success would typically cause a pitcher to be very cautious with a hitter, but we expect Heaney to go after Abreu since five of the seven outs in their head-to-head duels have been strikeouts. 

Abreu had a .360 BABIP against lefties last season, with a HR/FB rate of 18.6%. We are getting great odds for him to break the ice since he has not homered yet this season, but he's not entirely lost at the plate, as he has a respectable .254 batting average. DraftKings also offers the same +400 odds, but bettors are getting much less value at Caesars with their +320 price.

Sunday’s MLB game picks

Total: Diamondbacks-Marlins Under 7 runs (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This Arizona Diamondbacks-Miami Marlins Over/Under is tied for the lowest total of the day. And we're still firing on the Under despite both starting pitchers coming in with a 4.58 ERA or worse, as Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara have two of the four shortest odds to take home the NL Cy Young award, per DraftKings.

Miami’s team total has gone 10-4-1 so far this season, and Gallen’s xERA of 2.56 compared to his actual ERA of 4.58 suggests he has pitched much better than the numbers give him credit for to this point. Meanwhile, all 12 of Alcantara’s earned runs have come against division rivals to this point, and dating back to last season, he has allowed two earned runs in his previous 26 innings against non-NL East opponents, with two complete games and an eight-inning start in that span.

BetMGM and PointsBet are the only books not charging -115 or higher to back the Under.

MLB best bets made 4/16/2023 at 7:11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”