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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Glasnow Add to Marlins’ Recent Struggles?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 25, 2023 4:30 PM EDT • 4 min 36 sec read.

Major League Baseball’s fiercest intra-city rivalries comprise most of the six new series that begin on Tuesday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the leading MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The start of the last full week of July may as well be dubbed “rivalry week,” as both teams from New York, Chicago, and the Bay Area will square off on the diamond Tuesday. Elsewhere, the Milwaukee Brewers look to continue their dominance of the Cincinnati Reds, using a 9-2 head-to-head record to build a 1.5-game lead in the NL Central.  

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Los Angeles Angels (+105) vs. Detroit Tigers (-125)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+100) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
  • Miami Marlins (+180) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
  • New York Mets (-120) vs. New York Yankees (+100)
  • Colorado Rockies (+120) vs. Washington Nationals (-140)
  • Kansas City Royals (+170) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-200)
  • Atlanta Braves (OFF) vs. Boston Red Sox
  • Seattle Mariners (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins (-120)
  • Texas Rangers (OFF) vs. Houston Astros 
  • Chicago Cubs (-115) vs. Chicago White Sox (-105)
  • Cincinnati Reds (+130) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+230) vs. San Diego Padres (-275)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+115) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
  • Oakland Athletics (OFF) vs. San Francisco Giants
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+135) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)

Tuesday’s MLB best bets

  • Player Prop: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 total bases (-167 via Caesars) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Bryson Stott Over 0.5 RBIs (+190 via DraftKings) vs. Orioles ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Tyler Glasnow to record a win (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Marlins ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Dodgers ML vs. Blue Jays (-155 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 total bases vs. Mets (-167 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gleyber Torres leads all qualified New York Yankees hitters with a .264 batting average, 98 hits, and 43 RBIs. He's also been one of their only consistent contributors during the second half, slashing .382/.378/.618 since the All-Star Break with a team-leading 21 total bases.

However, on Tuesday he faces New York Mets righty Justin Verlander, against whom Torres is just 2-for-15 hitting (both hits were singles) with a 33% strikeout rate in his career.

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Verlander has inspired confidence that a second-half rebound is coming after allowing a .165 opponents' batting average through four July starts, and he's given up five or fewer hits in six of his previous seven.

Despite the poor beginning to the season by his standards, Verlander still ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected slugging and barrels, making this a confident four-star play that Torres will not produce multiple hits or an extra-base hit Tuesday.     

Caesars is our go-to shop for this wager, as DraftKings offers slightly worse -175 odds. 

Player prop: Bryson Stott Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Orioles (+190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Bryson Stott is not a top name many think of from a run-producing standpoint out in the Philadelphia Phillies' lineup, especially since he ranks just 10th among all NL second basemen in RBIs (36). However, he's fourth among second basemen in BABIP (.341, minimum 200 plate appearances) and in the top 10 among all qualified second basemen in wRC+.

Stott is therefore a great value play to drive in a run against Baltimore Orioles righty Kyle Gibson, who has pitched to a 6.63 ERA over his last seven starts (third-worst among all qualified starting pitchers during that span). Furthermore, Gibson has allowed a .302 opponents' batting average to left-handed hitters and ranks in the bottom-11 in BABIP (.339) since June 17.

Considering Stott’s odds to drive in a run are as low as +140 through FanDuel, the +190 found at DraftKings is a steal.

Player prop: Tyler Glasnow to record a win vs. Marlins (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Tyler Glasnow has won just 30% of his 10 starts in 2023, and the low total of 7.5 runs in this game is worrisome, as he may not receive enough offensive support to earn a victory against the Miami Marlins. However, we expect the Tampa Bay Rays to snap out of their offensive slump against a pitcher whose road numbers are atrocious compared to his home starts.

Edward Cabrera is 5-0 with a 2.61 ERA during six home starts, but he's 0-5 with a 5.93 ERA across nine road outings. Additionally, he's pitched to a 6.43 ERA against teams currently over .500, so a Rays squad that ranks 18th or worse in wRC+ and wOBA in home games since June 1 should provide enough offense for the starting pitcher.

PointsBet and Caesars also offer plus-money odds for this wager. But those books are lower at +105 and +104, respectively.

Tuesday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Dodgers ML vs. Blue Jays (-155 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Most of Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias’s struggles in 2023 have come on the road, as he's pitched to a 7.88 ERA over eight road starts compared to a 2.15 ERA during six outings at Dodger Stadium. He's earned the victory in five of his six home starts, and Matthew Moreno from Dodger Blue notes that Urias is the all-time leader in second-half ERA at 1.79 (minimum 230 innings). That inspires confidence he'll rebound from his worst start of the season (eight earned runs allowed in five innings against the Baltimore Orioles).

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The Dodgers have posted the second-best winning percentage (.625) of any team in the league against right-handed starting pitchers. But while Chris Bassitt has held Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez to a combined 3-for-20 with no extra-base hits in their career, he's also pitched to a 5.81 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while allowing a .304 opponents' batting average in 11 road starts during 2023. 

Among our best sports betting sites, only WynnBet and DraftKings are offering the Dodgers at lower than -159 odds.

MLB best bets made 7/2/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”