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MLB Stolen Base Prop Picks for Monday: 2022 Stolen Base King Headlines Picks

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: April 17, 2023 12:32 PM EDT • 2 min 53 sec read.

Steals are back on the menu in 2023. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.

After taking the weekend off to mentally recover from Marcus Semien and the Texas Rangers once again refusing to run after stealing bases for fun in 2022, we're back with our stolen base prop picks.

On Monday, we're riding with the 2022 stolen base king, as well as a sophomore star who's relatively struggled at the plate to begin the campaign and a veteran first baseman still looking for his first steal after nabbing double-digit bags last season.

Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Monday (odds via bet365 and theScore Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB stolen base props

  • Jon Berti Over 0.5 steals (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 steals (+450 theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 steals (+825 via bet365) ⭐⭐

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Monday’s MLB stolen base prop picks

Jon Berti Over 0.5 steals (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐  

These odds are a bit shorter than I'd generally like to play on a stolen base prop, but Jon Berti's projection on Monday simply can't be ignored. Berti is projected for 0.41 stolen bases against the San Francisco Giants, which is easily the highest number we've seen on any player all season (the second-highest on Monday is 0.25), according to NumberFire.

Berti led the league in stolen bases last season, and after a slow start to the 2023 campaign, he swiped three bags last week to move to four on the year. 

The Miami Marlins infielder is trading at longer odds on Monday than the likes of Ronald Acuna, Akil Baddoo, Starling Marte, and Bobby Witt, despite that group entering the day's action with a far lower stolen base projection.

Based on Berti's projection and base-stealing pedigree, he should be priced closer to Marte's +170 number and could be even shorter than that. He's also worth playing at +235 via theScore Bet.

Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 steals (+450 theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodriguez's projection ranks among that aforementioned group of players, each of whom has a projection ranging from 0.22 to 0.25 stolen bases on Monday. Though those players are all trading in the +230 range (Acuna is the longest at +255 via DraftKings), we're somehow getting Rodriguez at +450.

Rodriguez has already attempted six steals in 16 games this season (one every 2.6 games) after averaging an attempt every 4.1 games in 2022. He has otherwise struggled on offense to start the season - he owns just a 103 wRC+ after recording a 146 mark in his Rookie of the Year campaign - and should continue to try to make an impact with his legs until his bat heats up.

Based on his projection, Rodriguez should be trading closer to the +330 number Travis Jankowski is rightly priced at.

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 steals (+825 via bet365) ⭐⭐  

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman has yet to steal a base this season, though he does have one failed attempt. Freeman attempted 16 steals in 159 games last year (one every 9.9 games).

I've nearly bet on a Freeman steal a few times this season, but his odds have regularly been in the +700 range. The value we're getting on Monday has finally pushed me over the edge.

It's not just the price, either, as Freeman enters Monday's action with a respectable projection of 0.18 steals. Whit Merrifield (0.19 projected steals), Christian Yelich (0.19), and Josh Rojas (0.16) all represent attractive betting options, as well. However, Freeman provides us with the best value of the bunch, so we're riding with the perennial MVP candidate to swipe his first bag of the season.

MLB stolen base prop picks made 4/17/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.