Best Home Run Predictions Today & MLB Player Prop Odds for Dinger Tuesday
After a weekend of chasing gifts left from the Easter bunny, we return to the pursuit of long balls in our best home run predictions today. The potential for a greater reward lurks too as part of FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday.
When we last checked in on Friday, our C Jackson Cowart doled out a +450 hit while riding with Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz to go deep. Now we'll look to keep the good times going while tapping in three fast-rising young stars, and an established fence-clearing veteran in an appealing matchup.
💰 Best MLB home run predictions & odds today: Dinger Tuesday
Here are my best MLB home run predictions and odds for Dinger Tuesday, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our MLB player prop odds tool for the latest MLB odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
🧨 Tyler Soderstrom player prop pick: To hit a home run (+550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Nick Castellanos player prop pick: To hit a home run (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
🧨 Jackson Chourio player prop pick: To hit a home run (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
🧨 Junior Caminero player prop pick: To hit a home run (+550 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
💣 Best MLB home run prop predictions & expert picks today
Here's a breakdown of my best MLB home run prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our MLB picks along with our guide on how to bet on MLB.
⚾ Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $55)
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Even lava cools eventually, and Soderstrom surely will go from scorching to just normal hot at some point too. Logging two whole games without a hit of any kind feels like a month for the youthful Athletics masher who's tied for the league lead in home runs and sits 10th in OPS at 1.005.
Considering Soderstrom's white-hot ways to begin the season, we're getting wildly appealing odds from BetMGM for this bet. As is often the case, avoid Caesars and its +350 odds. The reason for BetMGM's longer odds is surely clear, and it's that the lefty power-hitter is facing a lefty tonight.
But when that lefty is the homer charity case known as Patrick Corbin, you take the eye-catching odds, splits be damned. Corbin continues to be a regular target for homer hunters while filling in for the injured Jack Leiter, and he's given up 30-plus homers in two of his past four seasons, with a high of 37.
The sample size of Soderstrom against lefties at the MLB level is small, as he begins his first season as a regular. Keep that caveat in mind, but he hasn't been struggling this season across 16 at-bats against southpaws, with a .313 batting average and .875 OPS.
His most recent liftoff also came off a lefty.
📊 Athletics vs. Rangers run odds
⚾ Nick Castellanos (Phillies) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +600 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $60)
Let's target another homer-prone hurler facing a ball-punisher more than capable of doing his part.
New York Mets starter Griffin Canning has been keeping the ball in the yard well so far this season, with a modest two homers allowed over 21 innings. However, that stretch may quickly become an exception far removed from the norm. Canning finished tied for second last year in homers allowed with 31, and his hard-hit rate (52.6%) and average exit velocity allowed (92.7 mph) so far this season sit in the bottom 8% MLB wide, according to Baseball Savant.
A dark pit of regression despair looms, and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos can help to send Griffin on that journey.
Castellanos has been barreling the ball up nicely, with his line drive percentage early this season jumping from 26.9% last year to 37.5%. He also sits in the 99th percentile in launch angle sweet spot, which has led to a .304/.365/.494 slash line.
📊 Phillies vs. Mets home run odds
⚾ Jackson Chourio (Brewers) to hit a home run ⭐⭐
Best odds: +900 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $90)
This is a long-shot play that needs to be approached accordingly, with perhaps even a smaller sprinkle than usual in this market. But it's worth venturing into the deep now and then with home run predictions when the matchup is right, and especially so on Dinger Tuesday.
Chourio and the Brewers face off with San Francisco Giants starter Jordan Hicks tonight, who's excelled at limiting homers while allowing only two through 22 1/3 innings this season, and 12 over 109 2/3 frames during his first MLB campaign as a starter last year.
However, the starter version of Hicks is relying much more on his sinker, which is getting teed off on often. Opposing batters are slugging .462 against a pitch Hicks is throwing 60.7% of the time in 2025. That comes after the opposition slugged .500 when facing Hicks' sinker last season.
It all lines up well for Chourio, who's been thriving against sinkers this campaign with a .353 batting average, .580 expected slugging, and 68.8 hard-hit rate.
📊 Brewers vs. Giants home run odds
⚾ Junior Caminero (Rays) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +550 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $55)
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Junior Caminero is rocketing upward in many ways, and most notably his hard-hit rate that's risen from 46.0 last year to 55.9 now, with the latter resting in the top 8% of MLB. He leans on rare bat speed to generate consistent missile launches, riding that to five homers already over 21 games after recording only six last year across 43 contests.
The third baseman is ascending fast, and now he gets an opportunity to face a righty in Brandon Pfaadt who's been vulnerable to homers. He's allowed five already this season, putting him not far behind the league's worst in that regard who have coughed up six-to-eight homers. That comes after Pfaadt surrendered 24 round-trippers during his first full season as a starter last year, tying him for the 11th-most in the NL.
Pfaadt uses a fastball-changeup mix as his two primary offerings, and Caminero has been blasting the latter while slugging .714 against that pitch.
📊 Rays vs. Diamondbacks home run odds
💰Best MLB home run parlay picks
Here is our best MLB home run parlay for Tuesday's baseball action; use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.
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