Elly De La Cruz MVP Odds 2024: Can Reds Star Chase Down Ohtani in NL Race?

Los Angeles Dodgers megastar Shohei Ohtani is a massive favorite by the MLB MVP odds at our best sports betting sites, with his shortest price implying he has a 95.24% probability of winning the award. But is there still a bet to be made in this market?

Ohtani is once again putting together a truly historic campaign. In the absence of pitching, he's cranked up his baserunning to new heights in 2024, serving as the majors' only player with at least 30 home runs and 30 steals. Ohtani is slashing .298/.386/.621 through 116 games this season.

Speaking of swiping bags, though, one of Ohtani's only remaining foes by the NL MVP odds is Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz. The star infielder has 59 steals through 117 contests, adding 21 home runs with a .266/.350/.499 slash line.

However, De La Cruz serves as the fifth-biggest favorite to win NL MVP at most of our best MLB betting sites, despite being nearly tied in fWAR with Ohtani.

Does De La Cruz have only a 1% chance to win like his +8000 odds suggest, or is this race closer than it appears?

Odds to win NL MVP

NL MVP odds from our best sports betting apps as of Aug. 13 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

Shohei Ohtani vs. Elly De La Cruz

Stats as of Aug. 13.

Is baseball's unicorn just a normal horse in 2024?

Ohtani has and probably will continue to run away with the MVP award when he hits and pitches. However, he's doing only one of those things this year. And though he's doing it exceptionally well, he offers no value when he's not at the plate.

This is why many said before the season that Ohtani couldn't possibly win NL MVP in 2024. And yet here we are, on Aug. 13, and he's a massive favorite.

So, what changed?

40-40 club

Well, Ohtani is stealing bases this season like never before. His 33 are already a career high, and it's very likely he finishes with at least 40. If he does hit that mark and smashes four more long balls, he'll become just the sixth member of MLB's 40-40 club.

Being the sixth person to do something doesn't make you a unicorn the same way being the only one does (please, feel free to take your "Babe Ruth hit and pitched, too!" takes and fire them into the sun), but it's still mighty impressive.

I don't think anyone properly accounted for the fact that Ohtani could take all that energy he saves from not pitching every fifth day to swipe 15-plus more bags than he ever did before.

As a result, he continues to rewrite the history books as only a DH. That could be enough to seal another MVP award, with this one coming in the NL.

What if De La Cruz steals 90?

We've already established it's likely Ohtani will become the sixth player in history to go 40-40. But what if De La Cruz becomes the first to go 30-90?

Admittedly, this is far more of a long shot, as the electric shortstop is projected by most models to finish the campaign with around 75 steals. That's still a ludicrous number, but Ronald Acuna just went 41-73 last season, so it wouldn't be completely unprecedented.

But 90? Well, 90 is different gravy, especially when combined with a home run total hovering around 30.

A player hasn't stolen 90 bases since Rickey Henderson did so in 1988, and he hit only six long balls that season. Henderson's greatest combination of home runs and steals came in 1986 when he drilled 28 bombs and swiped 87 bags.

If De La Cruz can crank up the pace and finish with 90-plus steals, he would definitely belong in the MVP conversation right alongside Ohtani.

Relative value

We discussed the idea of relative value in our look at the AL MVP race between Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., and we're exploring it once again for this showdown.

Ohtani's relative value

The Dodgers rank fourth in baseball with 22.7 fWAR from their hitters. Of that total, Ohtani is responsible for 5.8.

That means he's been worth roughly 26% of Los Angeles' wins above replacement from its hitters. Following closely behind him are Freddie Freeman (3.5), Mookie Betts - even though he's played only 73 games - also with 3.5, and Teoscar Hernandez at 3.0.

De La Cruz's relative value

Meanwhile, the Reds rank 24th by that same stat at 9.1 total fWAR, just below the Oakland Athletics. De La Cruz has been worth 5.7 of those 9.1 wins above replacement. Do we really need to do the math on this one? OK, fine.

De La Cruz has provided the Reds with roughly 63% of their wins above replacement this season. He has three teammates who've provided more than one win above replacement level, with those being Jonathan India (2.0), Tyler Stephenson (1.9), and Spencer Steer (1.5).

Where would each team be without them?

The Dodgers won 100 games last year without Ohtani. They ranked second in hitter fWAR, with fellow DH J.D. Martinez providing 2.4 in 113 games. With Ohtani, Los Angeles is projected to finish with right around that same win total or perhaps just below it.

They're also favorites by the World Series odds.

If you remove Ohtani's 5.8 WAR from the Dodgers' team total, they'd rank just outside the top 10 this year, and that's with Betts missing a large portion of the season.

The Reds have been without two of their most valuable players from the 2023 campaign for most, if not all of the season. TJ Friedl has played only 43 games while dealing with various injuries, and Matt McLain is yet to take the field. They're right around the same record they finished with last season.

Without De La Cruz, the Reds would rank third-last in the league in hitter fWAR, just above the Colorado Rockies. 

What can we expect for the rest of the season?

Ohtani is expected to continue to set the baseball world ablaze right up until the end of the season, while projection models aren't quite as kind to De La Cruz. That's likely a result of his streaky play.

Projections as of Aug. 13.

Ohtani is the massive favorite in this market for a reason. He's projected to finish the campaign with 47 home runs and 41 steals, according to Steamer. His 7.3 offensive fWAR would eclipse the 6.5 he managed in 2023, which is his career-best mark to this point.

Meanwhile, De La Cruz is projected to fall well short of the aforementioned 90 steals at just 75, and he's also expected to hit fewer than 30 home runs. Those stats are unlikely to get it done, so he'd have to exceed his projections to really make any noise in this market.

What's the bet?

It's difficult to recommend betting against a player whose shortest odds imply he has a 95% probability of winning the award, especially when considering he's expected to etch his name in the record books.

Therefore, this is more of a recommendation to bet only De La Cruz if you want to wager against Ohtani in the NL MVP market. None of the other players "in contention" - Ketel Marte, Bryce Harper, Marcell Ozuna, and Francisco Lindor - have a ceiling high enough to compete with a potential 40-40 campaign.

I bet on De La Cruz at shorter +6500 odds just one week ago, though with just a 0.25-unit wager.

I don't know that he has a real shot at winning, but I'm very confident that if anything happens to Ohtani, be it a prolonged slump or injury, De La Cruz has the best chance of winning. And if he can explode during the final month and a half, he's the only man who can beat Ohtani straight-up.

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