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Cubs vs. Padres Player Prop Prediction, Odds: Top Picks for Merrill, Musgrove, Suzuki

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: April 9, 2024 7:04 PM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

Chicago's West Coast road trip resumes with another showdown in San Diego, and we're offering our top Cubs vs. Padres player props based on the best MLB  odds.

Based on their preseason projected win totals, the Chicago Cubs (6-4) and San Diego Padres (6-7) have performed as expected heading into Tuesday's matchup, with first pitch scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET (Fubo) from Petco Park.

With six wins through their first 10 games, the Cubs's total is hovering around 85 wins Meanwhile, the Padres also have six wins but in 13 tries, close to the .500 mark that most of our sites with the best sportsbook promos projected at season's end. 

Neither team is expected to make much noise come playoff time, but San Diego does feature a couple of MLB MVP odds contenders, with both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado looking to make an impact in this series.

Joe Musgrove is set to take the mound for the host Padres, while the Cubs will trot out rookie Ben Brown, who makes his first major-league start following a strong performance out of the bullpen on April 3.

Here are our best Cubs vs. Padres player prop prediction and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cubs vs. Padres game info & odds

  • When: Tuesday, April 9
  • First pitch: 10:05 p.m. ET
  • Where: Petco Park, San Diego, Cal.
  • How to watch: MLB TV, Fubo
  • Favorite: Padres (-140 via Betway)

Cubs vs. Padres player props

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Cubs vs. Padres prediction

Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 total bases (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐  

San Diego Padres center-fielder Jackson Merrill is off to a strong start this season, and he remains firmly among the group of contenders by the MLB Rookie of the Year odds in the NL.

Merrill owns a .324/.405/.459 slash line through 13 games, providing the Padres with a talented option to man the outfield alongside Tatis. However, we're seeing value on his total bases Under for Tuesday's game.

All of our best sports betting sites have Merrill Under 0.5 total bases priced similarly, but only bet365 is offering odds better than the +145 found elsewhere. That's important because it's only these +150 odds that provide us with better than 10% positive expected value on the Under, based on the combined projections from two of our trusted models.

Additionally, there's always the risk that Merrill goes Under this total simply due to a lack of plate appearances, and his low slot in the batting order could provide pivotal for this bet on Tuesday.

Joe Musgrove Under 5.5 strikeouts (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐  

Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has struggled to begin the 2024 campaign.

First, he was rocked by the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers in the Seoul Series, and he gave up four runs on eight hits in his second start against the San Francisco Giants. He managed just five strikeouts across those first two appearances.

Musgrove seemed to right the ship in his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals, going six strong and striking out seven. However, St. Louis owns the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league (25.5%) while Chicago is much more stingy. The Cubs strike out at the seventh-lowest rate in the majors at 19.2%, illustrating the gap between Musgrove's last opponent and this one.

Even at his best, Musgrove is more of a strikeout-per-inning pitcher rather than the one who managed 10.08 K/9 in 2021. His projection for Tuesday is right in line with that, too.

Across two of our trusted projection models, Musgrove's average strikeout projection is 5.71. When we run that number against these +116 odds at FanDuel, we're getting roughly 7% +EV. All of our other best sports betting apps have this total listed at 6.5, but you're getting lower expected value based on their odds, making the additional punchout not worth it.

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 home runs (+675 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

Our final pick for this game is only a two-star bet, but that's because of the level of risk that comes with any home run prop. Therefore, you should adjust your wager accordingly.

Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki had somewhat of a rough rookie campaign, failing to live up to the hype of being among the favorites to win that season's Rookie of the Year Award. However, he bounced back in a big way in 2023, and thus far he's carried that momentum into this year.

Suzuki has two homers already through his first 10 games, and he owns an impressive .289/.383/.526 slash line.

We're riding with Suzuki to stay hot on Tuesday, mostly because of these odds at BetMGM. Comparatively, DraftKings prices a Suzuki home run at +600, which offers us just 32.5% +EV based on Suzuki's projections. Meanwhile, this +675 price provides us with nearly 47% +EV. 

You should cut your wager down to around 0.25 units, but this is a home run prop worth betting on.

Cubs vs. Padres player props made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.