Cy Young Odds & Prediction at All-Star Break: Is There Value Beyond Skubal, Wheeler?

While we wait for the second half of the season, we take a look at the Cy Young odds at the All-Star break to see if there's some value on the board at our best sports betting sites.

Detroit Tigers hurler Tarik Skubal (-200) and Philadelphia Phillies' Zack Wheeler (-125) are the betting favorites by the Cy Young Award odds markets at the break, but will they finish strong?

My Cy Young predictions expect one contender to overtake a current favorite and secure some silverware, even with his team out of contention by the World Series odds. Read on for my latest MLB picks and predictions.

📊 2025 AL Cy Young odds

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🏆 AL Cy Young betting favorites

🐯 Tarik Skubal

📊 Best odds: -200 via DraftKings ($10 to win $5)
🔢 Implied probability: 66.67%

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Are you watching, Merriam-Webster? Skubal's name was already engraved into the Cy Young award last year, and it's soon to be added into a thesaurus as he's becoming synonymous with dominance.

His 10 wins have helped Detroit to the league's best record at the break, and he ranks top three in almost every major statistical category - including ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, and wins. The 28-year-old entered the year as the Cy Young odds favorite after last year's triumph, and while there was little value then, there's none now.

A $10 wager would profit just $5 if Skubal becomes the first American League pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young awards since Pedro Martinez at the turn of the century. Nevertheless, bettors are heavily backing him, as he holds the highest ticket (11.8%) and handle percentages (26.6%) with BetMGM.

🧦 Garrett Crochet

📊 Best odds: +300 via BetRivers ($10 to win $30)
🔢 Implied probability: 25%

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The All-Star break is usually a welcome sight for most teams around the league - not the Boston Red Sox. The AL East giants are riding a 10-game winning streak as they continue to ascend the standings following a poor start. Crochet is largely to thank for that success.

The former Chicago White Sox ace has a 4.3 WAR during his first season in Boston, trailing only the aforementioned favorite atop the league standings. He tops MLB charts with 160 punchouts across 20 starts, and if Skubal wasn't in a class of his own, Crochet would surely be the leader in the Cy Young clubhouse.

If the Tigers' starter slips up at any point during the home stretch, expect Crochet to take full advantage as he looks to guide the Red Sox to an unlikely AL East title. Bettors should be all over Crochet at the generous price (+300) offered by BetRivers at the break.

😴 AL Cy Young sleeper pick

⭐️ Hunter Brown

📊 Best odds: +1500 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $150)
🔢 Implied probability: 6.25%

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Much like Boston, the Houston Astros have rebounded from a slow start and reminded the AL they aren't going anywhere, despite wholesale changes over the past decade. The AL West leaders have battled through a myriad of injuries, with Brown successfully leading a makeshift pitching staff to this point.

Unlike the Red Sox, however, Brown is thrilled to see the stoppage. His last two starts have seen him give up 1/3 of his total earned runs on the season after the Guardians and Rangers shelled him for 10 combined runs.

These struggles have seen the 26-year-old slip in the Cy Young market. If there's a pitcher who can make a climb back and give Skubal and Crochet a run for their money down the stretch, it's Brown. While unlikely that he wins the award at this stage, a $10 flier would return $150 at our best sports betting apps if he achieves the improbable.

📊 2025 NL Cy Young odds

🏆 NL Cy Young betting favorites

🔴 Zack Wheeler

📊 Best odds: -125 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8)
🔢 Implied probability: 55.56%

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There's been a lot of discourse on social media recently about whether Wheeler is the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young. He's on an incredible run since the start of the decade, but with all due respect to the individuals asking those questions, that debate might not matter for much longer.

He isn't starting the All-Star Game, nor was he the Cy Young odds favorite heading into the season. However, none of that will matter for the leader of baseball's most feared starting staff if he can close the deal.

Wheeler sits second in strikeouts (154) and WHIP (0.86) on the year, as well as sixth in ERA (2.36). Thus, it's no surprise to see him as the favorite heading into the second half of the season. However, more so than Skubal, there's no sense in betting Wheeler at minus-money with many months left.

🏴‍☠️ Paul Skenes

📊 Best odds: +100 via Caesars ($10 to win $10)
🔢 Implied probability: 50%

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If you're new to the world of sports, here's an important lesson: wins aren't pitcher or quarterback stats. While this is a commonly accepted belief among fans, baseball voters are behind the times. Raise your hand if you've heard that one before.

The opinions of crotchety old men seldom matter ... except in this instance. Only one player (Eric Gagne, 2003) has ever won the Cy Young with a losing record, even though some have come close. These discussions often arose during Jacob deGrom's tenure with New York, and they matter now with Skenes, too.

Despite posting an MLB-best 2.01 ERA through 20 starts, Skenes has tallied a 4-8 record thanks to Pittsburgh providing him with the fewest supporting runs in the league. The second-year superstar ticks all of the Cy Young boxes except for wins, so it'll be an interesting case study at the end of the season.

If Skenes can overcome the voters' bias, or even turn around his record, he'll become one of the 10 youngest Cy Young winners in league history. He's currently trading at even money (+100) at BetMGM and Caesars to do just that, whereas every other book requires bettors to pay extra juice.

😴 NL Cy Young sleeper pick

🔴 Cristopher Sanchez

📊 Best odds: +2200 via BetMGM ($10 to win $220)
🔢 Implied probability: 4.35%

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The Philadelphia Phillies recently voiced their displeasure with Milwaukee newcomer Jacob Misiorowski being named to the All-Star Game after five starts. After taking a peek at Sanchez and Suarez's stats, their frustrations are justified, even if they went about protesting their points the wrong way.

The unfortunate reality for Sanchez is that the Cy Young odds race is a two-horse one. Wheeler and Skenes have been utterly dominant, but the Dominican deserves some love for his stellar season. His 2.50 ERA ranks 10th in the MLB, and he's in the top 25 in a handful of other categories.

While his +2200 odds at our best sportsbooks may appear tempting, we'd still opt to bet Skenes over Sanchez, as the Pirates ace has a very real chance to win the Cy Young as a top contender.

🔮 AL & NL Cy Young predictions

🐯 Tarik Skubal (-200)

Skubal has shown no signs of slowing down, as he continues to dominate a mediocre AL Central. Even if the Tigers are knocked off their win percentage perch, Skubal's individual statistics speak for themselves.

My prediction is that Detroit's ace runs away with this award in the coming months. Nevertheless, if you've missed the futures ticket train, it's already left the value station, so you'll have to wait until next year to back Skubal at a decent price.

🏴‍☠️ Paul Skenes (+100)

Leave it to the LSU alumnus to pick Skenes - I pride myself on being nothing if not predictable. All jokes aside, it takes a truly special effort to overturn a historical precedent. However, that's exactly what we're getting from the second-year professional.

I believe the voters will ultimately overlook the silly issue of wins, seeing as he's got MLB's best ERA up to this point. I'm even more confident he'll be given the Cy Young if he finishes with a sub-2.00 ERA, which isn't out of the question.

💰 MLB betting odds pages

💵 Best MLB betting sites

Want to bet on the Cy Young awards? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for MLB futures:

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