Daily MLB Upset Alert: Best Bets for Today

It’s the final day of September and our final baseball regular-season upsets story – but obviously we will have you covered throughout the playoffs. Here are two dogs Thursday worth a wager on the MLB odds at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks.  

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets 

Thursday, September 30, 2021 – 07:05 PM ET at Citi Field 

Final game of the season between these NL East rivals and I am so curious to see what the crowd is like at Citi Field because it’s the last home game of the year for the massively disappointing Mets. Are you aware that the Mets will become the first team ever to spend as much time as they did in first place (103 days) and still finish with a losing record? New York was hammered by injuries, especially to Francisco Lindor and ace Jacob deGrom, but still.  

There are going to be some major changes in the offseason by billionaire Steve Cohen, almost surely starting with manager Luis Rojas. Remember, Rojas wasn’t hired when Cohen was the manager. The Marlins were a surprise playoff team last year in the shortened season but took a big step backward in 2021 and it might cost manager Don Mattingly his job. Miami does have a bright future with some good young pitching and a terrific young second baseman in Jazz Chisholm, who will get some Rookie of the Year consideration.  

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1443298545877008384

It’s 26-year-old rookie Tylor Megill (3-6, 4.78 ERA) on the mound. Among the 28 major league rookies to toss at least 70 innings this season, Megill ranks ninth with a 25.7 strikeout percentage and 10th with a 7.2 walk percentage. Megill was a godsend for about the first two months of his career but has really fallen off a cliff since. His ERA in August was 6.44 and it’s 7.20 in four starts this month. Megill’s lone start vs. the Marlins was in Miami on Aug. 2 and he allowed five runs in five innings of a loss. Lewis Brinson hit a first-inning grand slam off him. 

Keep an eye on if Mets reliever Aaron Loup pitches. He has a 0.95 ERA and is looking to become the first player in franchise history to record an ERA below 1.00 with at least 20.0 innings pitched in a season. 

Miami is scheduled to pitch 23-year-old rookie Edward Cabrera (0-3, 5.79). It’s his seventh big-league start and third vs. the Mets – he’s 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA against them. Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto have gone yard off him. 

New York is 3-8 on MLB picks in its past 11 Thursday games and 2-6 in its previous eight vs. right-handers so we’ll take Marlins on the runline. 

MLB Pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

https://youtu.be/ox-ea5c0-is

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins 

Thursday, September 30, 2021 – 07:40 PM ET at Target Field 

Final meeting of the season between AL Central rivals and Minnesota’s final home game – the Twins have disappointed so badly that manager Rocco Baldelli might not be back in 2022. This team had made the playoffs in each of Baldelli’s first two seasons (which might save him) but has cratered.  

Detroit will finish with a losing record but it has been a very positive season and the Tigers might be a playoff threat as early as next year. Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera will have to wait until early next season to join the 3,000-hit club as he has 2,987. Cabrera, who joined the 500-homer club earlier this season, would become only the seventh player in MLB history with 3,000-or-more hits and 500-or-more homers. 

One big part of Detroit’s future is 24-year-olkd lefty Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.13). He is closing the season pretty strong with a 3.25 ERA in August and 2.77 in September. Skubal still walks too many guys but has 163 strikeouts in 146.0 innings. He is 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Twins. Miguel Sano is 3-for-11 off him with a homer. 

Miguel Cabrera #24 of the Detroit Tigers singles. Duane Burleson/Getty Images/AFP

The Twins this week reinstated Joe Ryan (2-1, 2.45) from the Family Medical Emergency/Bereavement List and the 25-year-old rookie will make his fifth big-league start. The first four came against two teams: the Cubs and Indians. Ryan’s 25 strikeouts through his first four career games are tied with Dixie Walker (1909) and Dave Boswell (1964) for most in Twins/Senators history. 

Ryan is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA at home compared to 2-0 with a 1.50 road ERA. Obviously, this will be his first look at the Tigers. 

Detroit has been the better team than Minnesota for months, so we will back the Tigers on the runline. The Twins are just 9-20 on the MLB odds in their past 29 vs. left-handers. 

MLB pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.