Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can San Diego Pounce on Gallen?
The San Diego Padres are clinging to the final wild-card spot in the NL as the All-Star break nears. They're coming off a series win over the Texas Rangers, and the Padres will now keep trying to add some distance in the standings as we look at our Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, and Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bets.
The Padres enter as the favorites while getting around -125 odds at most of our best MLB betting sites, with first pitch slated for 9:40 p.m. ET from PETCO Park (MLB Network).
- Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best Diamondbacks vs. Padres player props: Zac Gallen Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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✅ Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (-122 via FanDuel)
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It's difficult to trust Zac Gallen lately. We'll dive deeper into the woes of the Diamondbacks' right-hander in a moment. But for now as we make our Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and Diamondbacks vs. Padres best bets, know that sometimes during a long season there's the good furtune of catching a team or pitcher at the right time.
That's what the Padres are doing here, and especially since the mostly dreadful Gallen will need to find a way to get Fernando Tatis Jr. out, or at least avoid him pummeling a baseball into oblivion. Tatis was enduring a prolonged slump by his sky-high standards while slugging just .369 in May before an even worse .337 in June. But his underlying metrics were still glowing, most notably an average exit velocity that sits in the 92nd percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
We're still early into a new month, but we're finally seeing results from Tatis, with a July OPS that sits at .932 and far above his .706 last month.
If we're seeing the beginnings of the true Tatis returning, it could be a rough night for the Diamondbacks' 26th-ranked pitching staff (4.72 ERA).
💰 Best Diamondbacks vs. Padres player props
✅ Best Diamondbacks vs. Padres player prop: Zac Gallen Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Gallen has shown flashes of the form that once made him a regular in the Cy Young odds conversation. That includes his most recent outing, which ended with 10 strikeouts across seven innings during an 8-2 win over the San Francisco Giants.
But the larger sample-size of Gallen's season is one filled with doom. That very much includes a recent dark stretch just before the outing against the Giants, with four-plus earned runs allowed in eight of nine games. His ERA has ballooned from a still woeful 4.93 at the beginning of May to 5.45 now. As a result, we're fading him as part of our best Diamondbacks vs. Padres player props.
He can pile up strikeouts sporadically even in a losing cause, which is why we're avoiding his strikeout Under, though it's mighty tempting against a Padres team that's struck out the second-fewest times in MLB. Instead, we'll rely on Gallen to keep being a runs carousel, especially given his hard-hit and barrel rates that both sit in the eighth percentile or lower.
Play this down to about -145, and currently BetMGM is sitting shorter than DraftKings at -140.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.
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