Florida State vs. Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: College Baseball Preview & Best Bets
The No. 9 Florida State Seminoles (25-6, 8-4 ACC) will take on the unranked Florida Gators (20-14, 1-11 SEC) tonight at Condron Family Ballpark in Gainesville, Fla. First pitch is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
The Florida campus will be rowdy following the Florida men’s basketball team winning last night's NCAA championship game. Let’s dive into the Florida State vs. Florida prediction and odds for tonight’s college baseball matchup.
This game opened as a pick 'em, but there's already been quite a bit of movement. That make sense as the College World Series odds don’t reflect the market’s current faith in Florida. At DraftKings, Florida clocks in at +4000 to win the title, far behind Florida State at +2000.
📊 Florida State vs. Florida betting odds
Here are the latest Florida State vs. Florida odds courtesy of FanDuel as of Tuesday morning.
💰 Moneyline
- Florida State: -136
- Florida: +108
💰 Run line
- Florida State: -1.5 (+106)
- Florida: +1.5 (-138)
✅ Florida State vs. Florida predictions, expert picks & best bets
It’s been a season to forget for the Gators. They spent last weekend getting swept at home by the Vanderbilt Commodores with a net run differential of -15. With just one conference win, it’s clear that things are not going to plan.
On the other side of this matchup, the Seminoles have looked solid this year, although they are coming off a tough home series loss to Wake Forest. After winning the first game by a run, the series’ net run differential ended at -17.
Florida State has an edge on offense. Their team OPS (.960) puts them at 15th, and they are 10th nationally in home runs with 59. Florida’s OPS (.911) puts them in 52nd, but their 52 home runs does come in at 26th.
🏆 Pick to win Florida State vs. Florida: Florida State (-136) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It’s easy to look at these teams’ records on paper and conclude that Florida State is the substantially better team. When you dig into the stats, it’s difficult to rebut that conclusion. We’ll talk more about those specific numbers later, but this raises the obvious question of why the books opened this game with such a tight moneyline.
The answer to that question may lie, at least partly, in the nature of college baseball betting. FanDuel was the first domestic book to post lines for this game, and Florida State opened at -106. I locked in Florida State at -113, and we’re already up to -136 before I can even finish writing.
Unlike other sports, college baseball - especially weekday college baseball - lacks the big-money market-makers who produce efficient lines. That’s in part because it’s a low-limit sport, with max wagers often held to less than $2,000.
As more money comes in, expect the Seminoles to get bid up even more. The trend has already started, so get in while the getting is good. Any number south of -150 is a good price.
📊 Best odds: -136 via FanDuel ($10 to win $7.35)
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⚾ Florida State vs. Florida preview & analysis
🆚 Florida State vs. Florida pitching matchup
- Florida State: Peyton Prescott (3-0, 5.09 ERA)
- Florida: Jackson Barberi (1-1, 5.12 ERA)
At face value, this pitching matchup may suggest the pick ’em odds were efficient. But this is a weekday college baseball game, and we’re probably looking at a bullpen game on both sides. Prescott is making his first start of the season and has pitched 17.2 innings in 13 outings. Barberi is making his fourth start and has pitched 19.1 innings in 12 outings.
So, if we can expect to see these starters play more of an opener role, how are these bullpens? Florida State’s team ERA (4.55) ranks an acceptable 50th, while Florida’s ERA (5.72) ranks a far less impressive 121st. The Noles’ bullpen has generated eight saves to Florida’s four.
One trick with weekday bullpen games is that if either side gets out to an early lead, you can expect each manager to pull the plug by throwing in the bottom of their bullpen, possibly creating more runs. With the total set to 13.5, consider getting a bit of exposure to the over in hopes that either side gets the scoring started early.
📊 Florida State vs. Florida statistical comparison
Here's a look at how these teams compare statistically entering tonight's matchup:
| Team | Ranking | Record | Runs Scored | Runs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | No. 9 | 25-6 (8-4 ACC) | 259 | 153 |
| Florida | Unranked | 20-14 (1-11 SEC) | 253 | 186 |
📺 How to watch Florida State vs. Florida tonight
📅 Date: Tuesday, April 8
🕒 Start time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Condron Family Ballpark (Gainesville, Fla.)
📺 TV: ESPN2
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