Home Run Leader Odds & Predictions at MLB All-Star Break: Can Favorite Judge Catch Raleigh?
There are familiar names atop our home run leader odds and predictions at the MLB All-Star break - and one newcomer who has already made history to this point in the season as MLB's leader in long balls.
The latter is Cal Raleigh, the Seattle Mariners masher who's set the record for most homers before the All-Star break with his league-leading 38. But he's still second by the odds at our best MLB betting sites while trailing only Aaron Judge, the MLB MVP odds leader who sits three round-trippers behind but holds a far more established homer history.
Let's dive into what the two favorites have done so far, befire diving into my prediction for a market often rooted in long shots.
📊 MLB home run leader odds at All-Star break
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📋 MLB home run standings at All-Star break
Here's a look at who sits among the top 10 on the current home run leaderboard as we enter the second half of the season.
| Player | Home runs |
|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 38 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 35 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 32 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 31 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 30 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 25 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 25 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 24 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 24 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 23 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 23 |
💣 MLB home run leader favorites at All-Star break
💥 Aaron Judge (-130 via BetMGM)
📊 Best odds: -130 via BetMGM ($10 to win $7.69)
🔢 Implied probability: 56.52%
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Go ahead and name an offensive category. Any one will do, and if you look in the top three, you'll see Judge's name.
The list gets laughable. Here's just a few:
- Home runs (35, second)
- Batting average (.355, first)
- Slugging percentage (.733, first)
- OPS (1.194, first)
- Hits (125, first)
- WAR (7.1, first)
He's doing all that for the World Series odds-contending Yankees, and his consistent power is pushing him ahead in the home run leader odds, along with a clear history of homer production when healthy.
Judge has led the league in home runs during two of the previous three seasons (58 last year and an AL-record 62 in 2022). Sandwiched between those campaigns is an injury-plagued season when he played only 106 games, and yet Judge still smacked 37 dingers in limited time two years ago.
He's blasting one into the upper reaches of a ballpark every 10.1 at-bats. That trails only Raleigh's 9.1, with the Mariners backstop mounting a worthy challenge while fresh off his Home Run Derby win.
💥 Cal Raleigh (+120 via Caesars)
📊 Best odds: +120 via Caesars ($10 to win $12)
🔢 Implied probability: 45.45%
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Raleigh isn't new to catapulting balls to other planets, with two 30-plus homer seasons over his first three full-time big-league campaigns.
He's just never done it at near this level, as Raleigh has already eclipsed his previous single-season high of 34. That's surely the main reason our best sportsbooks are listing him slightly behind Judge by the home run leader odds at the All-Star break, even with Raleigh holding a three-homer lead.
He came one dinger away from setting the record for the most by the All-Star break, and Big Dumper is just 12 homers shy of becoming the first catcher in MLB history to hit 50-plus homers in a season. Barring injury, Raleigh seems like a lock for at least that plateau, as he's clobbered 10-plus homers in every month so far.
He's getting an implied probability of 46.45% from Caesars, with BetMGM at 56.52% for Judge. That makes Raleigh the value bet, as a $10 wager would currently lead to a $12 payout, whereas the same bet on Judge would net just $7.69.
🧨Home run leader prediction and long shot
💥 Shohei Ohtani (+800 via Caesars)
📊 Best odds: +800 via Caesars ($10 to win $80)
🔢 Implied probability: 11.11%
If odds this long are offered on the unicorn otherwise known as Ohtani to lead baseball in pretty much anything, you are obligated to forgo that fancy coffee for one day and invest the same money wisely into the home run leader odds.
The overwhelming NL MVP front-runner is one of only five hitters with 30-plus home runs while sitting just three behind Judge and six off of Raleigh's pace. And yet there's a cavernous gap between Raleigh and Ohtani by the odds, even though the latter has shown repeatedly he can erupt at any moment - he led the NL last year with 54 homers.
Ohtani isn't immune to peaks and valleys homer-wise despite his overall power brilliance, though that makes him all the more enticing down the stretch as a long shot. He would close the gap to Raleigh and Judge in a hurry if Ohtani produced another 15-homer month, as he did just a short time ago in May. He also notched two 12-homer months last season, and he closed out a shining MVP campaign with an absurd 1.225 OPS in September and October.
A $10 bet on Ohtani would return $80 at these +800 odds from Caesars (11.11% implied probability). That's eye-popping stuff, especially when we remember the same bet on him to win NL MVP leads to a whole $1.25 profit on -800 odds (88.89% implied probability).
❓ MLB home run leader FAQs
Who are the favorites to lead MLB in home runs this year?
Aaron Judge is the favorite to lead MLB in home runs this season at our best sports betting apps. He's getting -130 odds (56.52% implied probability) while sitting in second at 35 home runs.
Judge trails only Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh in the dinger standings, who's 38 home runs have led to +120 odds (45.45% implied probability).
Who led MLB in home runs last season?
Aaron Judge led MLB last year with 58 home runs. It was his second time over a stretch of three seasons pacing the league, as he was also the leader in 2022 with an AL-record 62 long balls.
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