Mariners vs. Astros MLB Picks, Predictions: Can Seattle Rebound From a Crushing Game 1 Loss?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 13, 2022 6:35 AM EDT • 2 min 44 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The Houston Astros stormed back to steal Game 1 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. The two teams resume their series after being off on Wednesday. Read on for our Mariners-Astros MLB picks.

The Astros went 12-7 during the regular season against the Mariners with a plus-8 run differential. However, through the first four innings of Game 1, it looked like Seattle was taking advantage of a rusty Astros team that was just off for five days. The Mariners jumped out to an early 6-2 lead while pounding Houston ace Justin Verlander for six earned runs on 10 hits over those four frames.

Houston was down to its final strike twice before Yordan Alvarez’s walk-off three-run homer broke Seattle's heart. Will the Mariners be able to recover emotionally from that crushing loss?

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Game 2 on Thursday between the Mariners and Astros (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mariners vs. Astros Game Info

Date: Thursday, Oct. 13, 3:37 p.m. ET
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Weather: Indoors

Mariners vs. Astros Odds

Mariners vs. Astros Odds Analysis

Houston ranges from as low as -155 favorites to as high as -165. The Astros are attracting the largest wagers while getting 60% of the bets and 77% of the handle.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total of 6.5, while all others are at 7. The Over is getting 54% of the bets and 86% of the cash.

Mariners vs. Astros Projected Pitchers

Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) vs. Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)

Luis Castillo went 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA over 11 starts for Seattle after being acquired at the trade deadline. He earned his second All-Star Game nomination in 2022 after going 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA across 14 starts while with the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo dazzled during Game 1 of the wild-card round against the Toronto Blue Jays, throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits with no walks during a 4-0 victory.

Meanwhile, Framber Valdez surpassed his previous career high in wins (11) by six victories while leading the league in complete games (three). Valdez was also durable while facing a league-high 827 batters and leading with a 0.5 HR/9 rate. Additionally, his 3.0 BB/9 rate and 3.06 FIP were his best for a full season.

Mariners vs. Astros Picks

Mariners vs. Astros ML Pick

Mariners (+140) ★★

In Game 1, the Astros won their first postseason game when facing a deficit of more than one run after eight innings. They had lost each of the previous 48 such games. That's a tough pill to swallow for Seattle, but now the team is sending its best pitcher to the mound.

Castillo was nasty against right-handed hitters during the regular season. Righties hit .217 compared to .206 for lefties against Castillo, and his WHIP against righties was six points lower (1.06 compared to 1.12). He induced many ground balls too, with a 1.51 GO/AO ratio. That will come in handy against Houston’s right-handed dominant lineup.

Mariners vs. Astros O/U Pick

Under 7 runs (-120) ★★★

Seattle’s bullpen meltdown in Game 1 was an anomaly, as Mariners relievers ranked eighth in the league with a 3.73 xFIP and sixth with a 3.26 SIERA.

On the other side, Valdez should pitch well, as he set a single-season MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts in 2022. Look for him to limit a Mariners lineup that performed better against southpaws (ranked 11th with a 110 wRC+) than righties (106 wRC+).

Mariners vs. Astros Prop Pick

Valdez Over 17.5 Outs recorded (-115) ★★★

Valdez has held three of Seattle’s hitters (Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford, and Ty France) to slugging percentages of .313 or less, and two of those players posted averages of .200 and on-base percentages of .273 or worse.

The lefty pitched at least six innings in 25 consecutive starts before recording 16 or fewer outs in each of his final three. However, that was likely due to Dusty Baker making sure Valdez was fresh for the playoffs. Expect a longer leash now after the Astros' bullpen pitched five innings in relief of Verlander.

Where to Bet on Mariners-Astros Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Mariners-Astros picks made 10/13/2022 at 5:49 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”