Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Rodriguez to Blast off Against Stroman

The Yankees' Marcus Stroman has been struggling significantly, and Julio Rodriguez is set to tee off tonight.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: July 10, 2025 4:52 PM EDT • 6 minute read

As we make our Mariners vs. Yankees prediction, the two teams find themselves in a position at least one probably didn't expect: in a wild-card fight against each other.

The World Series odds-contending Yankees could be starting to come out of their tailspin after winning three straight games, including the first two over the Mariners in this series to position themselves for a sweep tonight. But a stretch of losing seven of eight outings isn't far in the rearview, dropping New York to second in the AL East.

Meanwhile, the Mariners sit 4.5 games back of the Yankees for the top wild-card spot in the AL as we make our Mariners vs. Yankees best bets. They'll look to salvage a game in the Bronx tonight, with first pitch slated for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium (MLB Network).

Mariners vs. Yankees prediction: Mariners to win (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Mariners vs. Yankees player props: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Mariners vs. Yankees prediction: Mariners to win (-108 via FanDuel)

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Marcus Stroman has put together a fine career, but the end might be nearing for the 34-year-old, or at least in terms of his starting rotation spot with the Yankees.

He'll get the ball to start tonight, but he may not stick around as a starter much longer once Luis Gil returns, especially after New York called up impressive youngster Cam Schlitter. Stroman's presence alone this evening is what's making us lean hard toward Seattle prevailing in our Mariners vs. Yankees prediction while avoiding a sweep.

Stroman was never a fireballer in his prime, and he instead leaned on a lethal sinker to create weak contact. That's still his approach, but Stroman's fastball velocity has dipped to a disastrous level even by his standards.

Perhaps his knee injury that kept him out for much of the season so far and has limited the veteran to only 19 1/3 innings is playing a role. Regardless, his fastball is averaging just 89.5 mph, down from 91.5 two years ago and 92.1 in 2022.

It was only used as a pitch to mix in and keep hitters honest so they can't sit purely on Stroman's arsenal of breaking pitches. So now his once masterful sinker is getting tattooed to the tune of a .543 slugging, up significantly from .464 last year, and he sports a 7.45 ERA to show for it.

Most of our best MLB betting sites are in unison while not listing a favorite and showing -108 or -110 odds on both sides of this game, making it a pick em'. But stay away from BetMGM if you're backing the visitors for your Mariners vs. Yankees best bet, which is offering Seattle for -117.

💰 Best Mariners vs. Yankees player props

✅ Best Mariners vs. Yankees player prop: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (+100 via DraftKings)

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It's always tempting to ride with Cal Raleigh when backing a Mariners hitter, as he leads the league in home runs and could challenge in the MLB MVP odds. But his teammate Julio Rodriquez may be even better positioned to capitalize on Stroman's struggles.

Rodriguez has been inconsistent offensively this season en route to a .696 OPS, down from .734 last season and .818 in 2023. But he's been heating up lately while recording a double in three straight games, and the All-Star outfielder isn't far removed from a month of June with a .289 batting average.

As always, it doesn't matter how you get to two-plus bases for one of our best Mariners vs. Yankees player props, whether it's through power or accumulating hits. And Rodriguez could do both against Stroman, who throws his sinker 38.2% of the time, a pitch that Rodriguez is slugging .468 against, his highest production against any pitch this season.

There isn't a vast difference in the pricing for this prop among our best sports betting sites. But stay away from Caesars, which is the only one not offering even-money odds.

📈 Mariners vs. Yankees betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM in the hours before first pitch.

Moneyline bettors are torn, with the Yankees getting 59% of the bets, but the Mariners receiving 75% of the handle
There's an overwhelming amount of action on the Over for 9 runs, with that side of the total generating 79% of the bets and a whopping 96% of the handle
Run line bettors are also divided, with the Mariners getting 84% of the handle to cover -1.5 as the favorites, while the Yankees are receiving 77% of the bets

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

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The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

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The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.