Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Player Props & Odds: Expert Picks for June 14

The Diamondbacks won the first game of this National League West series, can the Padres boune back tonight?

Mike Spector

Last updated: June 14, 2025 1:13 PM EDT • 4 min read

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Player Props: Best MLB Expert Picks for June 14 — Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates with teammate Eugenio Suarez after scoring. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas via Imagn Images.

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks play the second of three games of the series tonight, with first pitch slated for 7:15 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. Our Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction and player props break down this matchup between National League West rivals.

Our best sports betting sites list Arizona as a -150 moneyline favorite. Read on for our top player prop pick, which recognizes the red-hot Manny Machado.

💰 Best Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions & player props

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✅ Padres to win (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐✅ Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾️ Padres moneyline ⭐⭐⭐

🎯 Score prediction: Padres 7, Diamondbacks 5

San Diego had won 10 of its last 16 games and was unbeaten in five consecutive series before losing two of three games against the Dodgers earlier this week. However, that's hardly a reason for pessimism. Meanwhile, the concerns are mounting for Arizona, which is rumored to be trending toward selling at the trade deadline with each day it continues to hover around .500.

The Padres won six of their 10 games during their recent hot streak by one run, a positive sign, especially since their relievers posted a 1.58 ERA (third-best in the majors) during that stretch. I have less faith in Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen these days, as his numbers are in steep decline from his career averages.

Given that the Padres have won the season series in three of the last four years against the Diamondbacks, I am backing their moneyline odds at FanDuel, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +125 odds. I expect the visitors to even this series tonight.

✅ Best odds: +126 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $12.60 profit)

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🤖 Padres vs. Diamondbacks AI score prediction: Padres 6, Diamondbacks 4

Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events.

🖥️ AI predictions for Padres vs. Diamondbacks

AI says the projected final score is Padres 6, Diamondbacks 4.

Win probability: Padres 56% | Diamondbacks 44%
Projected total runs: 10
Key takeaways:

Pitching Edge: The Padres' superior bullpen should limit Arizona's scoring opportunities.
Offensive Strength: San Diego's recent offensive surge gives it the upper hand.
Struggles against top competition: Arizona has struggled with inconsistent play against winning teams all season.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward San Diego covering the spread (+1.5) and a total of Over 9.5 runs.

1️⃣ Padres vs. Diamondbacks first-inning prediction: NRFI

San Diego’s streak of cashing the NRFI in four straight road games was snapped last night when it scored on a throwing error in the first inning. But there is great value on this wager tonight, especially at plus-money odds, even though the full-game total of 9.5 runs is tied for the highest of any MLB game on today's slate.

✅ Best odds: +105 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $10.50 profit)

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🔥 Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Machado has carried San Diego's offense of late, and his recent surge has him in the top eight for batting average and the top 17 in OPS.

Machado is slashing .339/.367/.589 over the last 15 days. He has six hits with a home run in 23 career at-bats against Zac Gallen, and has performed better away from home this season, with a batting average and slugging percentage 46 and 120 points better, respectively, away from Petco Park.

Machado has had five multi-hit games in his previous 10, so he can provide several ways to cash this Over even if he never adds an extra-base hit.

✅ Best odds: +105 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $10.50 profit)

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🔥 Zac Gallen Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gallen had more than five strikeouts in half of his first eight starts. Since then, he has five or fewer strikeouts in six straight, as his xSLG and xERA are on pace to be the worst of his career.

Gallen is throwing his fastball with more frequency than last year, despite losing velocity. His ceiling for strikeouts is lowered considerably when facing a Padres lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate (18.5%) in the National League against right-handed pitching this season.

FanDuel offers great value for this wager compared to the -150 odds at DraftKings, which carry a 60% implied probability.

✅ Best odds: -130 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $7.69 profit)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”